Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harper Woods, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 231718 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 118 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020

AVIATION.

VFR flying conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Increasing cirrus shield, albeit on the thinner side in thickness coverage, from the remnants of Beta will drift northward across the airspace into tonight, with persistence forecast of patchy slight haze visibility reduction again around sunrise. Light west/southwest wind trends towards calm overnight before orienting more southwest in direction Thursday.

For DTW . Went with persistence forecast again this TAF period, with increasing cirrus coverage and 6 SM haze around daybreak Thursday morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 323 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020

DISCUSSION .

Expansive surface high pressure system remains wedged between post- tropical cyclone Teddy (located just south of Nova Scotia) and the remnants of Beta (located near the TX/LA border), which will bring about another round of dry weather along with the warmest temperatures of the week thus far -- highs in the upper-70s and touching 80s in some spots. A dry atmospheric column to promote mostly sunny skies with perhaps a little more filtered sunshine around the southern Metro region, tied to departing remnant smoke from the western wildfires. Otherwise, a developing upper-level jet across ArkLaTex to filter in some high-based cirrostratus across SE MI late tonight and overnight, as cloud debris from Beta is quickly lofted into the area.

Split-stream upper-level flow regime will will keep the high moisture quality and precipitation chances associated with Beta south of the Ohio Valley, while a shortwave trough drops from the northern Plains into the Midwest on Thursday. SE MI will be too far removed from both features for any mention of precipitation, with the exception of the Tri-Cities into northern Thumb as a slightly better moisture axis orients itself across northern lower Michigan, ahead of the shortwave feature. The atmosphere below the origin of hydrometeor production will remain dry and thus measured precipitation remains unlikely, so only a slight chance will suffice for Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, the trend of dry and slightly above normal temperatures will continue on into early Saturday with limited forcing mechanisms in place.

Multiple shortwaves of Pacific origin riding along and embedded within a strengthening jet will overspread across the Midwest, eventually amplifying an upper-level trough across the Great Lakes and driving a cold front across the state later in the day on Saturday and into Sunday, providing the chance to see rain and thunderstorms. Multiple shortwave features will continue to push into the Midwest and will amplify upper-level troughing across the Great Lakes through the early to midweek period, which will have conditions quickly feeling like fall given the drop in temperatures, multiple chances for rain, and quick uptick in wind gusts given the more energetic low-level wind field and caa. Ensemble mean 500 mb height fields support a strong, amplified troughing across the Midwest through the midweek period and latest ECMWF deterministic run shows an impressive PV feature which works to amplify a surface low east of the Rockies before occluding across the Midwest/Great Lakes region. Most of the uncertainty within the model spread lies within the potential amplitude of the trough, with secondary uncertainty tied to timing uncertainty in the location of the trough and associated upstream ridge axis. Still plenty of details to be worked out within the week. Overall, main messaging will consist of a high probability of exhibiting a flip in temperature trends to below normal by the midweek period along with increasing rain chances.

MARINE .

Light southwest winds will further diminish overnight as high pressure near the Tennessee Valley maintains weak advection into the region. The overall trend for the next few days will be mainly dry with 5-10 knot winds oscillating between westerly and southwesterly. One exception looks to arrive on Thursday when showers a possible across northern Lake Huron from a passing trough. There may also be a brief period of light southeasterly flow Thursday night. Otherwise, wet and cool conditions hold off until Saturday when a strong cold front approaches, associated with a central Canada low pressure system. This front and the resultant environment will lead to frequent opportunities for showers, gustier winds, and higher waves through early next week. Small Craft Advisories may be needed for Saginaw Bay and southern Lake Huron on Saturday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . IRL DISCUSSION . AM MARINE . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	7 mi	41 min	W 9.9 G 12	78°F			1015.2 hPa (-2.1)
45147 - Lake St Clair	16 mi	41 min	SE 3.9 G 3.9		67°F		1014.1 hPa (-1.5)
AGCM4	28 mi	53 min		73°F	65°F		1014.8 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI	49 mi	53 min		79°F			1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI	2 mi	48 min	W 7	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	80°F	59°F	49%	1014.9 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI	13 mi	46 min	W 9	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	80°F	57°F	45%	1015.9 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI	16 mi	45 min	E 5	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	75°F	66°F	74%	1014.9 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI	22 mi	48 min	W 10	9.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	79°F	55°F	44%	1015.3 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI	24 mi	46 min	S 6	10.00 mi	Fair	70°F	62°F	76%	1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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