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LCZ423 851 Pm Edt Wed Sep 6 2023
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters...
the areas affected include...
detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie...
at 848 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm west of lake erie metropark harbor to 8 nm northwest of Monroe harbor to near luna pier, moving northeast at 20 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near, Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, woodland beach, and detroit beach around 855 pm edt. Stony point around 900 pm edt. Lake erie metropark harbor, estral beach, and gibraltar around 910 pm edt. Detroit river light around 915 pm edt. Elizabeth park marina and wyandotte around 920 pm edt. Grosse ile around 925 pm edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
these strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds up to 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when these storms reach the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these storms arrive.
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lat...lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4226 8317 4233 8311 4238 8294 4235 8293 4232 8307 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 041743 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1243 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023


AVIATION

A plume of low-level moisture aided from the Lake Superior-Huron connection, coupled with diurnal heating, will reinforce mvfr strato- cu into the evening. The exception will be across KMBS where an intrusion of dry low-level air will afford a period of more SCT coverage. Satellite imagery continues to march lake enhanced stratus inland, which will attempt to expand into KMBS through the late afternoon. The caveat to this will be that dry low-level air, which is showing early indications of being scoured out over the northern Tri-Cities.

A boost in moisture quality is expected late tonight downstream of an approaching clipper system which will support mvfr cigs overnight. Snow will encroach and will likely extend north into the Michigan/Ohio border, but the question is how far north the northern fringe of the precipitation extends into Michigan. About a little more than half of the model guidance has very light accumulating snow expanding into the Metro terminals, so have opted to introduce snow chances given increasing chances (~60% chance). Temperatures will be just above freezing so most if not all accumulation will be reserved for grassy surfaces.

For DTW...Increasing chances (~60%) for very light snow tomorrow, likely between the 14Z-22Z window. Refinements to both snow chances and timing are expected leading into the event. Accumulation will likely only be several tenths of an inch, mostly reserved for grassy surfaces.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 912 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

UPDATE...

Quick update to add areas of drizzle and scattered flurries to the zones for the south half of the CWA this morning, associated with the surface trough tracking through. Enough low level moisture around, as 12z DTX sounding indicated saturation at both 925/850 mb levels. Based off rap soundings, looks like cloud depths reach -8 C, so ice nuclei looks to be an issue. However, likely see some localized over-achievement which can support very light snow showers.
Even so, with temps in the mid 30s, should be complete melting on the roads and just trace amounts of precip.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

DISCUSSION...

A larger scale deformation axis is stringing out across Southeast Michigan early this morning as multiple shortwaves have been tracking into/through the basal portion of the northeastern NOAM trough. The net result has been a persistence of moist lower tropospheric conditions and continuation of drizzle and light precipitation. Cold advection has been very slow to this point with many locations remaining in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees as of midnight. Modest cold air advection will now more in the way of snowflakes mixing in before precipitation ends completely.

Model data suggests the amalgamation of absolute vorticity will push east of Southeast Michigan by late this morning allowing for differential anticyclonic vorticity advection. This large scale forcing will support weak shortwave ridging aloft and a weak col/surface ridge late this afternoon. The trend in the model soundings is for more moisture and saturation to hold on in the lowest 3.0 kft across all of the area. The soundings show some drying and lowering of stability from 5.0 down to 2.5 kft but overall the signal is very weak in downward vertical motion. Still holding onto a little hope the northern cwa could see some fleeting sunshine this afternoon but background cyclonic flow and this trend in the models suggests it will be tough. Highs in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees with windchills in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

An impressive and deep midlevel trough is forecasted to amplify and deep across Tennessee Valley late Tuesday. No real changes with what has been a stable model trend for a system that will largely track to the south. Still expecting the precipitation to merely brush the region bringing light precipitation chances. Model soundings remain supportive of all snow with any deep saturation and UVVs. The probabilistic guidance continues to highlight the floor/ceiling of this event...time lagged ensemble giving a 12hr probability of 45- 50% for 0.10 inch and the NBM 50th percentile of 24 hr snow accumulation at 0.0 inch or no accumulation. Probably could be better characterized as flurries.

Progressive longwave trough and ridge couplet is anticipated for the middle to end of the weak. Modestly cool conditions again Wednesday with highs in the middle to upper 30s, some 2 to 5 degrees below normal. Upper level heights begin to rise Wednesday night leading to a tremendous amount of warm advection. A Clipper is forecasted to dive southeastward just north of Lake Superior and Lake Huron.
Models have brought the bulk of any QPF over Lake Huron to the northeast of the forecast area. There are chance PoPs in the forecast for a mix of rain and snow but light QPF limits an accumulation potential. The narrative then for the end of the week will be mild conditions with temperatures in the 40s and 50s.

MARINE...

Low pressure continues to push further east across the Northeast today allowing for a gradual weakening trend in northwest winds through the day. A brief ridge of high pressure builds in this evening/tonight before a weak clipper system drops into the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes Tuesday. Minimal marine impacts accompany this system as the weak gradient results in northerly winds generally holding under 15kts with light rain-snow showers being confined south of Lake Huron. A warm front tied to low pressure over the Canadian Prairie lifts across the region late Wednesday offering another window for light rain-snow showers. Main impacts instead are strengthening southwesterly flow into Thursday as the region holds between the aforementioned low and broad Southeastern US high pressure. However given the warmer airmass, current expectation is for gusts to hold sub 30kts.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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