Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 8:54 PM Moonrise 3:12 PM   Moonset 2:53 AM

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LCZ423 320 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 181651 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1251 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and muggy conditions continue through early next week. Chance (35-40 percent) for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.

AVIATION

Morning fog and LIFR/IFR low clouds have dissipated (outside of DET), and looking at just a bit of diurnal CU development this afternoon, mainly in the 5000-6000 foot level. The rest of the mid levels look very dry, and not anticipating convective development.
Enough low level drying during the day and a subtle southerly wind tonight to help limit fog potential compared to this morning.
However, leaning toward fog/moisture from Lake Erie to make inroads into the southern TAFS late tonight, and have put tempo LIFR cigs in for DTW/YIP/DET. A weak surface cold front should allow for light winds to flip to southwest, helping to accelerate the mixing out of the low clouds and fog with diurnal CU (around 5000 feet) likely in the afternoon. Lake breeze convergence and instability will bring the potential for scattered thunderstorms during the late afternoon.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Potential for FEW-SCT clouds flirting with the 5000 foot level much of the period. Fog/LIFR low cloud concerns late tonight as light southeast flow off Lake Erie exists.

Thunderstorms are not expected this afternoon, but there is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, with lake breezes serving as the focus.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceilings aob 5kft.

* Low for ceilings and visibilities to drop below 200ft or 1/2SM 8-14Z Sunday.

* Low for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

DISCUSSION...

The culmination of the past 24 hours of precipitation accumulation coupled with a surge of very shallow low level moisture coming off the Great Lakes have resulted in extensive low-level stratus and areas of dense fog across portions of SE MI. Both fog and cloud coverage will quickly dissipate after sunrise once the mid-May sun angle works to lift cloud depths and mix out the moisture. Some scattered cu will likely re-form in the wake of the stratus, but clearing trends will allow temperature trends to or above the 80 degree mark, outside of the immediate nearshore locations. Cannot completely rule out a fleeting diurnally fueled shower, but very limited instability and weak kinematics support dry conditions for most locations.

A series of upper-level waves will travel across the northern and central Plains through the weekend and into early next week while a secondary upper-level trough builds in through the Tennessee Valley by this afternoon. This will enhance ridging across the Great Lakes and will pool in warm air from the continental SW into Michigan, characterized by h850 values between 14-16C. This will support daytime highs in the 80s Sun - Tue, likely pushing into the mid-80s.
Warm overnight lows will also accompany the warming trend given the constant stream of warm air advection. Overnight lows in the mid 60s are likely Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning.

There will be multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms during this warm stretch, with PoPs increasing by the mid-week period. The notable change for the near-term will be increasing PoP chances for showers and thunderstorms for tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Surface based instability will return on Sunday under the warm and moist airmass with CAPE building up to 1,500 J/kg. There will be a cold front that washes out across central Michigan by Sunday afternoon which will be one possible point of CI, mainly over the Tri-Cities, but the most probable focal point for initiation will be multiple lake breezes that push inland off of Huron/St.Clair/Erie accounting for the large surface deltaT. Surface convergence can capitalize on the building instability, bringing the chance (35-40%)
for showers and thunderstorms. The limiting factor will be the meager deep layer shear values with 1-6 km shear holding aob 15 knots.
Convective mode will be pulse thunderstorms. Strong 0-3 km lapse rates around 9 C/km, DCAPE aoa 1000 J/kg, and PW values above 1" will bring the chance to see heavy downpours with highly localized wind gusts up to 45-50 mph with the more vigorous activity. Weak mean boundary layer flow will be favorable for outflow boundaries, which can also support renewed neighboring t-storm development. Showers and storm chances wane after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

Upper-level waves riding within the longwave ridge will bring the additional chance for showers and storms Monday afternoon and evening and again for Tuesday, most favorable over the northern half of the cwa where the best moisture axis resides. The upper-level trough will amplify across pacific west early next week, while a potent mid-level wave derived around Baja California targets the Texas Panhandle, which will strengthen a weak surface low and drive it northeast into the western Midwest and up towards the northern Great Lakes. The EPS and NAEFS both show excellent agreement regarding cyclone centers holding northeast of the cwa which will push a cold front across SE MI likely on Wednesday. This will provide another chance for showers and storms, and pending the timing of the front, could bring strong to severe thunderstorm potential as 0-6 km shear values increase to 35-40 knots. A daytime passage would be more favorable for stronger storms. Cooler temperatures filter in behind the front, dropping temperatures back into the 70s by the late week period.

MARINE...

Showers in the area as a high pressure system briefly takes control today. Moist profile and southeasterly winds around 5-10 knots through the day today allow for areas of fog over Lake Huron to stick around into the early afternoon. A dense fog advisory is in effect for Lake Huron, and may need to be expanded into Lake St.
Clair and western Lake Erie. Benign and predominantly southerly winds persist through the rest of the weekend into Sunday, where a shortwave brings the next low pressure system across to the north.
The system will drag a cold front across the region Sunday with no inclement weather expected, before giving way to a second disturbance behind it. This second disturbance brings chances for showers and storms, but aside from inside any such storms, winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA criteria at this time.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ361>363- 441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ444.

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