Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gold Beach, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 5:50PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 12:29 PM PST (20:29 UTC) Moonrise 4:01AMMoonset 1:16PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 906 Am Pst Tue Feb 18 2020
.hazardous seas warning in effect until 10 am pst this morning...
Today..Northern portion, N wind 15 to 20 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Brookings southward, nw wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 13 seconds.
Tonight..N wind 10 to 20 kt...becoming se 5 kt after midnight, then...becoming 5 to 10 kt early in the morning. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 5 to 15 kt...easing to 5 kt late in the evening, then...veering to E after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 13 seconds.
Wed..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, wind variable less than 5 kt...becoming sw 5 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Wed night..SE wind 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 3 to 4 ft and sw 2 ft.
Thu..Wind variable less than 5 kt...becoming nw 5 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft.
Thu night..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 6 ft...building to 7 ft after midnight.
Fri..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 ft. W swell 7 ft.
Sat..N wind 10 kt...veering to S after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft in the morning...becoming 2 ft or less, then...becoming 3 ft after midnight. NW swell 6 ft...building to 11 ft and sw 1 ft.
PZZ300 906 Am Pst Tue Feb 18 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Gusty north winds and steep to very steep wind driven seas will persist into tonight, especially south of cape blanco. Conditions will improve overnight, then remain relatively calm through the remainder of the week. More active weather is possible over the weekend in the form of a frontal system and larger long-period swell arriving Saturday and Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gold Beach, OR
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location: 42.43, -124.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 181704 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 904 AM PST Tue Feb 18 2020

DISCUSSION. The latest visible image shows clear skies over most of the area. The exception is in portions of the Umpqua Basin and around Grants Pass where low clouds and patchy fog or freezing fog is being observed. Temperatures at the north coast were near freezing earlier this morning, but are now above freezing and the freeze warning has expired. However freezing temperatures are possible again for the north coast, especially in areas that will be sheltered from the east winds from the offshore flow. A freeze watch is in effect and this will likely be upgraded to a warning.

A few adjustments were made to the sky cover for this morning and afternoon, otherwise the forecast for today is on track. Please see previous discussion for more details on the weather for the rest of the week. -Petrucelli

AVIATION. For the 18/12Z TAF Cycle . VFR will prevail through most of the night before the possible development of low stratus and/or freezing fog comes back to the West Side Valleys, and possibly along the Coos County coast, early this morning, resulting in MVFR/IFR CIGS and VSBYS. Any areas of lower conditions that do develop should improve by mid to late morning. Otherwise, areas east of the Cascades and Northern California are expected to remain VFR through this evening. Fog and low stratus could return to the valleys by late in the TAF period, but once again, confidence is low and coverage would likely be spotty. -BPN

MARINE. Updated 200 AM PST Tuesday, 18 Feb 2020 . A thermal trough along the coast will continue to produce gusty north winds and steep to very steep wind driven seas into tonight, especially south of Cape Blanco. Winds should remain below gale criteria, but occasional gale gusts will be possible south of Cape Blanco.

Conditions will improve overnight as the thermal trough weakens and moves offshore, allowing north winds to diminish and seas to gradually lower. Conditions then remain relatively calm under high pressure through the remainder of the week.

More active weather is possible over the weekend, with some models suggesting a frontal system and larger long-period swell will arrive Saturday and Sunday. Confidence remains low at this time, with a wide spread of the model solutions, so we will be watching this closely through the next several forecast periods. -BPN

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 435 AM PST Tue Feb 18 2020/

DISCUSSION . Temperatures have dipped below freezing in the Reedsport area this morning and are within range of doing so in the Coos Bay and North Bend areas, so a Freeze Warning has been issued there valid through 9 AM PST this morning. Tonight into Wednesday morning conditions look very similar, so a Freeze Watch has been issued for much of the same area. Please see our detailed hazards on our web page for a geographical view of the warning and watch areas.

Moderate easterly winds are occurring across the upper slopes, ridges, and passes early this morning as high pressure centered over the Northern Rockies extends northwestward across the Pacific northwest. A thermal trough currently extends along the coast southward into California. Over the next 24 hours this pattern will change very little, though a frontal boundary in the Gulf of Alaska is expected to weaken ridging over the west side a bit. The net effect will be a continued easterly flow across the upper slopes and ridges and relatively dry conditions in the valleys.

There is some fog and low clouds in portions of Douglas and Coos counties, and possibly some west of Medford in Jackson County into Douglas County this morning. Through the morning expect these low clouds and freezing fog to generally form west of Medford.

With mostly clear skies and a dry air mass in place, we'll see fairly large diurnal temperature ranges for valley locations- on the order of 20 to 35 degrees- greatest across the east side. We expect these ranges to begin to decrease Thursday as some cloud cover from a dissipated front moves overhead and net wind flow becomes onshore again across the west side by day's end.

Friday into Saturday daytime highs may nudge slightly above normal as high pressure ridging breaks down and a trough approaches from the Gulf of Alaska. However, clouds and light winds mean temperatures probably won't get more than about 5 degrees above normal, which would be 60F for Medford.

The main item to watch in the forecast is the low pressure trough moving in from the Gulf of Alaska late Saturday into Sunday. The 00Z GFS and the 00Z ECMWF and their ensemble members differed wildly, with the GFS showing snow levels dipping to between sea level and 1,000 feet Monday the 24th, while the ECMWF suggested them dipping more into the 2,500 to 3,500 foot range for that same time period. Pattern recognition, climatology, ensemble means, and general trajectory suggest that the GFS is likely too cold, while the ECMWF may be too warm. The primary difference in these two primary model camps is the depth/sharpness of the trough and how much and where the primary pressure features ahead and behind the trough amplify. Generally speaking, the ECMWF seems to have performed a bit better of late, but that does not necessarily mean it will for this weather system. For now, the average solution of the two, with a bit of a colder, wetter nudge toward the more multi-model inclusive NBM, seems to be the best forecast. This would suggest another low pressure trough similar to what we experienced this past weekend, though maybe a bit stronger. Stay tuned as the range of possibilities currently appear to be something similar to what we saw this past weekend to potential valley snow. The current official forecast suggests west-side precipitation ending when snow levels are in the 1,000 to 3,000 foot range. ~BTL

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Freeze Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for ORZ021. Freeze Warning until 9 AM PST this morning for ORZ021.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for PZZ356. Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 22 mi60 min NW 11 G 17 51°F 47°F1022.3 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 40 mi40 min N 14 G 18 48°F 48°F7 ft1020.2 hPa40°F
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 49 mi66 min SSW 4.1 G 6 47°F 48°F1019.5 hPa

Wind History for Port Orford, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR25 mi94 minWSW 310.00 miFair53°F30°F41%1019.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBOK

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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5NW84N6NE45--NE8
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55CalmCalmSW3SW3W3SW4
1 day ago3S3S4S4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm6464S4CalmN10
G16
2 days agoS4SE5CalmSE5SE4E333SE4SE6SE75
G14
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Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:11 AM PST     3.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:00 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:10 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:16 AM PST     6.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:16 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:49 PM PST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:53 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:34 PM PST     5.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.53.33.43.94.75.66.36.76.664.93.52.210.30.10.51.42.53.64.555.14.7

Tide / Current Tables for Port Orford, Pacific Ocean, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.