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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 827 Pm Pdt Wed Apr 24 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 5 am pdt Thursday through late Friday night - .
Tonight - Northern portion, nw wind 5 to 10 kt - . Backing to S late tonight. Brookings southward, nw wind 15 kt - .easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight, then - . Backing to se late tonight. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 3 to 4 ft at 10 seconds. Chance of rain. Thu - Northern portion, S wind 15 to 20 kt - .rising to 25 kt in the afternoon. Brookings southward, S wind 15 to 25 kt - .becoming 15 to 20 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves S 4 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 5 ft at 9 seconds. Rain.Thu night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves W 4 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 6 to 7 ft at 9 seconds. Rain.Fri - W wind 10 kt. Wind waves nw 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 6 to 7 ft at 9 seconds. Rain.Fri night - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 6 to 7 ft at 9 seconds. Chance of rain through the night.Sat - NE wind 5 to 10 kt - .veering to sw in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 4 to 5 ft at 9 seconds. Rain likely. Sat night - S wind 10 kt. Wind waves W 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 4 to 6 ft at 9 seconds. Rain likely. Sun - S wind 10 kt - .veering to W after midnight. Wind waves W 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 8 ft at 11 seconds. Mon - NW wind 10 to 15 kt - .veering to N after midnight. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 7 to 8 ft at 11 seconds.

PZZ300 827 Pm Pdt Wed Apr 24 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - Winds and seas will remain calm through tonight. A front expected tomorrow afternoon will bring gusty southerly wind speeds across the waters, especially the northern half of the waters where isolated gales are possible. The result will be steep seas north of gold beach Thursday afternoon and evening when the start of a small craft advisory begins. Then westerly seas will build on Friday with conditions still hazardous to small craft. Additional fronts will move across the area Saturday into early next week.

FXUS66 KMFR 250555 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1055 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

UPDATE
Aviation discussion has been updated for the 06z TAFs.

DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms have largely laid down for the day and a period of calm is expected through the rest of tonight. This will change Thursday morning as a front moves onshore. Compared to winter standards, the front looks to be fairly low impact, although a fresh coating of Cascades Concrete (high density snowfall) is expected from 5500 feet and above, which could disrupt some weekend plans for anyone hoping to enjoy some sunshine in the mountains. Instead, be prepared for subfreezing temperatures, snow, and wind gusts peaking around 35 kts, which may cause visibility restrictions during the peak snowfall Thursday evening and night.

Away from the mountains, storm total rain amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches along the coast and in Douglas County, and less than half an inch in most other places, should provide beneficial rainfall that will keep water year totals around normal across the region.
The change in airmass will also trend afternoon high temperatures back into the 50s across most of the region, which is more like early March like temperatures.
-Miles

AVIATION
25/06Z TAFs
The current MVFR conditions at the coast are expected to remain through much of tonight, but with higher level clouds moving in, the ceiling could lift just into the VFR category. For the rest of the region, VFR conditions should remain through the TAF period. With a front expected to move in Thursday morning at the coast, the current cloud cover will at least remain the same or increase through the night; making terrain obscuration more common. The front is expected to arrive tomorrow afternoon. This front will bring rain to the whole region, including east of the Cascades, but it is unlikely to be heavy enough to restrict visibility.
-Miles

MARINE
Updated 800 PM Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Relatively calm seas are anticipated tonight ahead of an approaching front which is slated to come through Thursday afternoon.

By tomorrow, the approaching front will bring increased wind speeds along the coast and rainfall chances. These wind speeds will create conditions hazardous to small craft and we could see isolated gales across the northern waters. Rainfall chances are very high around 90+% across the waters starting Thursday afternoon. The probability of getting 0.25" or more of rainfall over 12hrs is around 40%-70% for the inner waters Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. The probability for wind gusts of 34 knots or greater is only around 20%- 30% and hence the thinking for low end chance of isolated gales, mainly across the northern waters where the strongest wind speeds are anticipated.

The biggest change for this forecast was to extend the small craft advisory both earlier in time and later in time to account changing conditions. We may need to consider adding in portions of the southern waters for later in the week, but we can address this in coming forecast.

We get a little bit of a break Saturday with calmer seas, but the seas become active again starting Sunday and going into next week.
Additionally, this will be a rainy pattern with chances over the waters essentially everyday tomorrow onward. The best chance for rainfall at this time is the early period Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 513 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into this evening over eastern Siskiyou, Modoc, southern Lake, and far southeastern Klamath counties. This includes the vicinities of Alturas and Lakeview. A few light showers are also popping up over the Cascades. This activity will diminish after sunset this evening.

A significant change to cold and wet weather accompanies a frontal system late tonight into Friday, and post-frontal showers Friday into Friday night. High temperatures on Thursday will be around 5 to 15 degrees cooler than today's readings, and a few additional degrees of cooling on Friday.

-DW

LONG TERM...Saturday morning through Wednesday night.

Conditions trend drier around Saturday morning as a ridge sets up over southern Oregon and northern California. This should result in a period of high pressure building and the chance of rain decreasing around Saturday morning. Some warmer moist air will push into the forecast area ahead of the next cold front. This should lead to a persistent light rain along the coast, although it will be drier inland, especially east of the Cascades. Eventually, a cold front will push into the region, although the PoP doesn't change much Saturday evening and Saturday night.

This cool unsettled flow will continue into Sunday with the best chance of precipitation west of the Cascades and within Oregon.
However, locations east of the Cascades and in northern California are anticipated to be dry. This is most likely due to weak forcing and a lack of moisture farther to the south under this zonal flow.
This synoptic pattern will likely continue into Monday as short waves move through this zonal flow.

Eventually, an upper level low out of the Gulf of Alaska will likely push into the Pacific Northwest around Wednesday. However, some of the ensemble members keep this low offshore, which would result in relatively drier weather around mid week. If the low does stay offshore, then GFS does present a very interesting thunderstorm event for the region with ample shear and the potential for building instability. However, this forecast is 7 days away and pretty unlikely with the evolution of the upper level low track.

Overall, the extended forecast looks active yet with little to no impacts. We're lacking significant moisture or forcing to bring impactful rain or snow to the region.

-Smith

AVIATION
25/00z

Isolated thunderstorms remain ongoing across NorCal and east of the Cascades. This activity should decline once the sun sets. With a front expected to move in tomorrow, the current cloud cover will at least remain the same or increase through the night; making terrain obscuration more common. The front is expected to arrive tomorrow afternoon. This front will bring rain to the whole region, including east of the Cascades, but it is unlikely to be heavy enough to restrict visibility.
-Miles

MARINE
Updated 200 PM Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Relatively calm seas are anticipated today and tonight ahead of an approaching front which is slated to come through Thursday afternoon.

By tomorrow, the approaching front will bring increased wind speeds along the coast and rainfall chances. These wind speeds will create conditions hazardous to small craft and we could see isolated gales across the northern waters. Rainfall chances are very high around 90+% across the waters starting Thursday afternoon. The probability of getting 0.25" or more of rainfall over 12hrs is around 40%-70% for the inner waters Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. The probability for wind gusts of 34 knots or greater is only around 20%- 30% and hence the thinking for low end chance of isolated gales, mainly across the northern waters where the strongest wind speeds are anticipated.

The biggest change for this forecast was to extend the small craft advisory both earlier in time and later in time to account changing conditions. We may need to consider adding in portions of the southern waters for later in the week, but we can address this in coming forecast.

We get a little bit of a break Saturday with calmer seas, but the seas become active again starting Sunday and going into next week.
Additionally, this will be a rainy pattern with chances over the waters essentially everyday tomorrow onward. The best chance for rainfall at this time is the early period Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.

-Guerrero

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 2 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Wedderburn
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