Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fredonia, NY

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Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 4:47PM Saturday December 14, 2019 2:23 AM EST (07:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:18PMMoonset 9:53AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 1241 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Overnight..East winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Rain. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. Rain and snow in the evening, then a chance of snow and rain showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Sunday..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Snow and rain showers likely in the morning, then snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of snow and rain showers during the day, then rain and snow showers likely Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Snow and rain showers likely during the day, then snow showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
LEZ040 Expires:201912141015;;754141 FZUS51 KBUF 140541 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1241 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-141015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fredonia, NY
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location: 42.43, -79.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 140604 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 104 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. A complex area of low pressure will move northward just inland from the east coast late tonight through Saturday night. Rain will become more widespread later tonight and continue through Saturday morning before changing to accumulating wet and sloppy snow from west to east Saturday afternoon and evening. The snow will taper off later Saturday night and Sunday, with lingering lake effect snow showers east of the lakes. There will be a brief break Sunday afternoon through Monday morning before the next area of low pressure moves through the region with snow and a wintry mix late Monday through Tuesday morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. . Wet and sloppy snow expected mid to late Saturday afternoon into early Saturday evening .

Update: Majority of thinking from earlier discussion remains the same. 00z NAM did trend away from its very high QPF compared to other guidance, so now it is more in line with preferred 18z GFS and Canadian and 12z ECMWF. 00z WRF-NMM and ARW are still a bit higher with QPF. Overall still not quite sure how exact snow amounts work out with this event as uncertainties with QPF are still there, as is how quick change to snow occurs. With sfc temps right on edge of freezing within overall rapid cold air advection in wake of deepening cyclone, think the changeover occurs sooner than later and likely first occurs over higher terrain before making it to lower elevation locations. Given that quick changeover in some areas and fact that this snow will be very wet (SLR/s less than 10:1 seem likely) leading to difficult travel of sloppy slush on roads once it starts to stick, thought it was prudent to expand our going winter weather advisory to where the change to snow occurs during the daytime (as far east as Monroe and Ontario counties). We will likely need headlines farther east and could see needing to upgrade part of western Southern Tier to warning, but will let mid shift look more into those decisions.

Rest of earlier forecast discussion is unchanged:

Overall fairly quiet early this evening. Batch of showers on nose of low-level jet and within isentropic ascent are sliding northward across eastern Lake Ontario region. Ground temps per NY Mesonet 2 inch soil temp sensors are right above freezing, but thus far, no freezing rain, icy spots have been noted with this light rain. Otherwise, rest of forecast area should see relative lull in rain through the rest of the evening with cloudy skies persisting and temps remaining in the mid to upper 30s.

A complex scenario will unfold later tonight through Saturday evening with strong cyclogenesis over the eastern US. A southern stream trough will cross the Tennessee Valley tonight, phasing with a northern stream trough moving into the western Great Lakes. The resulting phased mid level trough will become deep and negatively tilted as it moves through the eastern Great Lakes late Saturday as 12 hr height falls over 20dam are forecast at H5. At the surface, low pressure wave developing along the Carolina coast, will be captured by stronger low pressure wave currently just offshore of the Florida panhandle by late tonight (resulting in MSLP around 995mb), then consolidating into a rapidly deepening surface low taking an inland track northward across eastern NY late Saturday (MSLP of 985mb) and Saturday evening (975mb as it crosses into Quebec). The still deepening surface low will then move into eastern Quebec by Sunday morning (970mb).

Large scale forcing will rapidly increase later tonight and Saturday morning across the region, with strong DPVA ahead of the negatively tilted trough and a coupled upper level jet structure supporting strong upper level divergence. Low/mid level frontogensis will rapidly increase across Western NY by afternoon as the surface low deepens and the thermal gradient tightens on its western periphery, with this strong area of frontogenesis and deformation then moving east across the area through the first half of Saturday night. Finally, upslope flow and some limited lake enhancement will then take over as the primary forcing with the exit of the strong synoptic scale forcing later Saturday night.

The increasing forcing will allow rain to become widespread across the region later tonight. Temperatures will be warm enough for all rain across the entire area later tonight through Saturday morning. The eastern Lake Ontario region will become at least partially dry slotted for a time from Saturday morning through mid afternoon, with precipitation becoming lighter and more intermittent. Steadier precip will then move back in by late afternoon as the comma head and associated forcing move east.

Now to the very complex part of this forecast. There is still a high degree of model spread with the 18z NAM, GFS and Canadian concerning snow amounts for Saturday afternoon and night, especially across Western NY. The 12Z NAM, and all the high resolution NAM based guidance significantly increased snowfall across Western NY, with much higher QPF developing in the cold air later Saturday afternoon and evening. The 18z NAM increased its QPF even further. The GFS and Canadian GEM are a little slower with the change to snow, and also have less QPF following the change to snow. Though the 18z runs from the GFS and Canadian trended SLIGHTLY higher in their QPF, they remain nowhere near as high as the NAM or to lesser extent the high res WRF or NMM. For instance, the 18z NAM in the 6 hour period ending at 00z Sun (when bulk of forcing with rapidly moving upper trough and sfc low moves out) has 0.75 to 1.15 inches of QPF over much of western NY while the GFS in that same time shows 0.40 to 0.60 inch and Canadian shows 0.50 to 0.75 inches. 12z ECMWF is more in line with the GFS. SREF is also not near as high as the NAM output, showing 0.20 to 0.40 inches of QPF. Would tend to put more faith into the NAM idea if the SREF was at least close in the ballpark. But, frankly it is not. For now, think a solution closer to the GFS/ECMWF, maybe tilted a bit toward more Regional Canadian may be way to go for QPF.

Now to the no less complicated changeover part of the forecast. Cold advection to the west of the deepening cyclone will only initially cool the column to a near isothermal layer at or just below freezing Saturday afternoon and evening. Surface temperatures will fall to near or just above the freezing mark during this time. Based on 18z forecast soundings from NAM and GFS, Canadian, once winds turn NW behind the deepening sfc low, believe that changeover to snow first occurs over higher terrain over WNY 19z-21z, then gradually makes its way down to lower elevations after 21z. Overall the going forecast looks good in terms of the changeover times. Given this scenario, snow to water ratios will be low, likely less than 10:1 through early Saturday evening before improving overnight as the column and surface grow colder. This will be a very wet, sloppy snow that will make for difficult travel once it begins to accumulate on the roads.

In terms of snow amounts, the latest forecast keeps 4-8 inches across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and Wyoming County with the highest amounts along the Chautauqua Ridge with upslope enhancement later in the event and where the change to snow first occurs on Saturday afternoon. We will start with a high end advisory for now. It is possible some of this area may reach low end warning criteria, especially if the forecast trends towards the more aggressive NAM solutions or even the more moderate Canadian solution. Went with 2-4 inches across the lower elevations of Western NY, and 1-3 inches for points southeast of Lake Ontario with a later change to snow. Again, if the more aggressive NAM solution is correct these amounts will be higher. Will be interesting to see what changes, if any, the 00z guidance holds later this evening.

East of Lake Ontario, the higher terrain of the Tug Hill plateau may see 4-7 inches, with 2-4 inches across lower elevations. Most of this will occur later Saturday night into Sunday morning once westerly upslope and lake enhancement develop. This area may need an advisory as well, but given ongoing uncertainties with this system will hold off on the headline for now in this area.

Finally, it will turn quite windy Saturday night as the surface low continues to deepen across eastern Quebec. Expect gusts of 30-40 mph across much of the region, highest on the lake plains of Lake Ontario. The snow will be quite wet and sticky given the marginal temperatures, so blowing snow will not be much of an issue.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Surface low pressure will be deepening as it moves into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday. While most of the impacts will be confined to Canada, breezy west winds and snow showers east of the Lakes will continue through the day. Cold air advection will be occurring with 850mb temperatures falling to -12 to -16C through Sunday afternoon. Lake effect snow showers will taper off east of Lake Erie through the day as inversion heights come crashing down and moisture diminishes. Snow showers will last longer east of Lake Ontario but eventually taper off Sunday evening. Most places across western and north central NY will see less than an inch of accumulation Sunday- Sunday night. The higher terrain east of the Lakes could see a few inches. Due to cold air advection throughout the day, expect little movement in temperatures with highs in the low 30s across the higher terrain and low to mid 30s at lower elevations and adjacent to the Lakes.

There is a brief dry period with winds diminishing across the region Sunday night into Monday morning. Low temperatures will dip into the teens to low 20s Sunday night.

Next up, a southern stream system will develop across the Tennessee Valley Monday. This system will track just to our south and east into Monday night which would keep a majority of us on the northern side of the low. We will again, be under the influence of the right entrance region of a 150kt upper level jet while a deformation zone develops across NYS Monday night. At this time, snow looks likely Monday into Monday night however the track of the low is in close proximity to NYS. Shifts in the track may bring in warmer air and cut down on snow chances. Based on 12z 12/13 guidance, a few inches is possible across the entire region through Monday night. High temperatures will range from the upper 20s east of Lake Ontario to the low to mid 30s across western NY Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Low pressure will strengthen as it reaches the Canadian maritimes which will establish a cold northwesterly flow across our region. 850 mb temperatures will drop to around -20C which is plenty cold enough to support lake effect snow into mid-week. The amount of moisture will depend on how developed the mid level low and there lies some model disagreement. There will be at least some lake response Tuesday night and Wednesday which may linger into Wednesday night.

A trough approaching the area Tuesday night will track east across the region through Thursday morning. A weak surface low will generate some light snow showers for most of the area Tuesday night before a cold front crosses the region. Cold air advection behind the passing cold front will cause 850H temperatures to cool to -20C by Wednesday afternoon/evening, with areas northeast of Lake Ontario approaching -25C Wednesday night.

With these cooling temperatures, lake responses off of both lakes will be possible for Wednesday into early Thursday. Increased ridging and weak warm air advection, along with less synoptic moisture on Thursday will start to cause the lake response to diminish through the morning as equilibrium heights will lower. A weak stalled frontal system across Lake Ontario extending into the North Country may cause some snow showers on the Friday, but model agreement is lacking that far out.

Temperatures will cool on Wednesday to the low to mid 20s across the area. Temps will rebound some to the upper 20s to around 30 for Thursday and Friday, except east of Lake Ontario where is will stay in the low 20s due to a potentially stalled weak frontal system.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. For the 06Z TAFS, flight conditions have lowered to IFR and lower across the Southern Tier (KJHW) and will soon lower to IFR at lower elevations as the boundary layer continues to moisten.

Rain showers will continue through the next 12 hours, lowering visibilities to IFR/MVFR.

A storm system along the Carolina coastline will advance up the eastern seaboard today . resulting in our rain this morning, and then as the low passes into New England it will pull colder air back across the TAF region and change the rain to snow. Visibilities will become more widespread IFR (and LIFR in KJHW) in snow late this afternoon and evening. As the surface low deepens over Atlantic Canada late tonight a gusty westerly wind will be possible . with gusts nearing 30 to 35 knots . especially for KROC and KART.

Snow showers will become more concentrated over the higher terrain tonight . with poor flight conditions for KJHW/KART . while possibly some modest improvement for KBUF/KIAG.

Outlook .

Sunday . Local IFR in lake effect snow showers east of the lakes in the morning, otherwise improving to VFR. Monday . VFR deteriorating to IFR late afternoon and Monday night with snow and wintry mix. Tuesday . IFR in snow showers in the morning, improving to mainly VFR. Wednesday . A chance of IFR in lake effect snow east of the lakes, with VFR elsewhere.

MARINE. A deepening low moving northward along the east coast tonight and early Saturday will take an inland track across eastern NY late Saturday before reaching eastern Quebec by Sunday morning, becoming a very strong low on the way. Westerly winds will rapidly increase in its wake Saturday night, with gale force winds likely on Lake Ontario. Westerly gales will continue through Sunday before starting to diminish Sunday night. A gale watch has been issued for most of Lake Ontario. Winds will not be quite as strong on Lake Erie farther removed from the strong low. Sustained winds will likely peak around 30 knots on Lake Erie.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. West gales are expected to develop on Lake Ontario Saturday night through Sunday. The strong west winds will produce significant wave action on the east half of the lake, and combine with high lake levels to increase the risk of lakeshore flooding. Wind direction is expected to be nearly due west for the duration of the strong winds, which will drive the higher risk of Lakeshore flooding to areas from about Fair Haven eastward where the shoreline is more perpendicular to a west wind. Farther west along the south shore of Lake Ontario, winds will be parallel to the shoreline.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Lakeshore Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday evening for NYZ005>007. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for NYZ001>003-010-011-013-014-021. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ012-019-020-085. MARINE . Gale Watch from this evening through Sunday evening for LOZ043>045-062>065.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock/JLA NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/JLA SHORT TERM . HSK LONG TERM . HSK/SW AVIATION . Thomas MARINE . Hitchcock TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 4 mi23 min ENE 6 G 7 40°F 1007.4 hPa (-4.5)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 24 mi53 min 37°F 1008.1 hPa
NREP1 27 mi113 min SE 1.9 G 5.1 41°F
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 39 mi53 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 40°F 37°F1008.8 hPa29°F
EREP1 44 mi53 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 48 mi53 min 38°F 1009.2 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY6 mi30 minNE 410.00 miLight Rain38°F35°F89%1007.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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