Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fredonia, NY

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 8:07PM Friday August 23, 2019 8:04 PM EDT (00:04 UTC) Moonrise 11:24PMMoonset 1:17PM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 1044 Am Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
This afternoon..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ040 Expires:201908232115;;087233 FZUS51 KBUF 231444 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1044 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-232115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fredonia, NY
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location: 42.43, -79.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 231801
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
201 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis
Most areas should remain dry right through the weekend, although
there is the possibility of a brief shower or sprinkle overnight
south of lake ontario and into finger lakes. There will also be
several more early mornings with typical inland valley fog. The
next chance of rain along with warmer weather won't return until
next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Near term through Saturday
A cool airmass continues to head south toward western ny this
afternoon with abundant insolation providing lift and stratocumulus
formation, with a fairly shallow cloud depth owing to a dry airmass
above about 6000'. The coldest portion of the airmass has yet to
arrive, so there will be the possibility of a few light
showers sprinkles this evening into Saturday morning late this
afternoon across the higher terrain finger lakes south of lake
ontario.

The main surface feature will be a weak trough that will move south
across the lower great lakes this evening. This can be traced to the
wealth of cloud cover approaching the lower great lakes. The nam
nest does a decent job brining a subtle wind shift along with the
development of spotty showers as the trough moves south of lake
ontario between ~02-04z. Winds will strengthen some and shift to
north-northeasterly while 850mb temps drop a couple more degrees,
bottoming out around +6c overnight. This is all being forced by a
fairly potent shortwave trough rounding the base of the longwave
upper trough that will be in place over the region. Despite low
level anticyclonic flow and dry air near the surface, there may be
just enough lake enhanced moisture instability, that when combined
with the potent shortwave trough aloft, to produce a few showers
downwind of lake ontario on a north- northeasterly fetch. Any
showers would be mainly focused across the higher terrain of the
western finger lakes and the interior southern tier. Otherwise,
after some clear skies this evening, expect a resurgence of clouds
overnight south of lake ontario. Meanwhile, expect another
resurgence of the typical valley fog to form where skies remain
clear to partly cloudy late tonight. Expect a dry and quite cool
night elsewhere. Temperatures will indeed be chilly by latter august
standards. Lows will bottom out in the low to mid 40s across the
higher terrain, with lower to mid 50s elsewhere.

Saturday, the core of the coldest airmass will be overhead and in
the process of mixing out. Thus expect another day with inland
stratocumulus development with clear or clearing skies over the
lakes by afternoon.

On a side note, there may be an interesting "reverse" lake band
heading wsw toward the eastern side of lake erie by morning. This
won't have any impacts for wny, but it's a little unusual to see
the models picking this out.

Short term Saturday night through Monday night
High pressure will reside across southern quebec and northern new
england Saturday night. Variable to light southeast winds will occur
overnight. Mostly clear skies and calm conditions will likely result
in patchy fog across the southern tier. It will be less widespread
than the past few nights because of the abundance of dry air across
the region. Low temperatures will fall into the low to mid 50's to
upper 40's in valley locations across the western southern tier.

Surface high pressure remains in control Sunday while a mid-level
ridge approaches the eastern great lakes. Mid-level flow turns out
of the southeast with 850hpa temperatures climbing to +9-12c which
will help temperatures climb closer to normal, mid to upper 70's for
late august. Lingering moisture aloft will lead cumulus development
through the afternoon. Dry conditions continue Sunday night into
Monday. Low temperatures will fall into the low to mid 50's.

While dry weather continues into Monday, attention moves to moisture
approaching from the ohio valley. Warm air advection will occur
through the afternoon as the mid-level ridge moves overhead. There
shouldn't be much change in temperatures including dewpoints from
Sunday to Monday however cloud cover will start to increase from the
southwest Monday afternoon. High temperatures will again be in the
upper 70's to possibly 80 across the lake plains. A warm front
enters western ny late Monday night and will increase the chance for
showers and possibly a thunderstorm early Tuesday morning. Low
temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 50's to low 60's.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Broad longwave trough over central canada will expand across the
great lakes and eastern canada. Sfc flow will increase from the ssw
into the lower great lakes Tuesday into Wednesday as main sfc low
spins over northern ontario toward the southern shore of hudson bay
sending a warm front across the lower great lakes into new england.

Expect temps to rise above normal with upper 70s to low 80s a good
landing point for now.

Details remain murky about convection Tuesday with main issue
focusing on how expansive convection will be along warm front. Gfs
continues to be more aggressive in eastward push of showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday, showing QPF as far east as areas east of
lake ontario, while ECMWF and canadian keep most of activity on
Tuesday over western ny closer to approaching strong sw-ne oriented
upper jet ahead of broad trough and also closer to axis of 1.75 to
2.0 inch pwats. Convective shortwave(s) riding into ny ahead of main
trough will have to be watched as it could boost pops earlier, but
going to go with slower idea from ECMWF and canadian given strength
of incoming trough which will tend to amplify mid-upper level flow
and keep most widespread precip closer to larger scale features.

As initial cold front moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday,
should be a greater chance of seeing widespread convection. Though
mid to upper level winds will be brisk from the sw, any convection
will have potential to produce heavy rain as pwats reach 2 inches
and wbzero heights rise toward 14kft. Though it is pretty far out to
hone in on the details, seems that greatest chances for showers and
storms on Wednesday will be over our eastern areas toward finger
lakes and east of lake ontario as cold front arrives there during
the afternoon during peak heating MAX instability. If that timing
holds and sufficient instability is present, there would be at least
some risk of stronger storms given strong wind fields present.

High pressure is then forecast to build across the region later
Wednesday into Thursday behind the cold front. This will encourage
the return of fair weather along with more comfortable humidity
levels.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
An inland stratocumulus deck should dissipate this evening, only to
be replaced by additionalVFR CIGS overnight as the coldest airmass
moves overhead.

Lake induced clouds form across areas south off lake ontario this
evening, with lowVFR CIGS possible across the genesee valley,
finger lakes and southern tier for the second half of tonight.

Valley fog will also be possible across the typical valley areas
where cloud coverage remains clear to partly cloudy.

Saturday should be a another day withVFR, but with more of a N or
nne flow aloft. This day will feature another round of inland
stratocumulus.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Monday... MainlyVFR with nothing more than
southern tier valley fog producing local ifr conditions each late
night and morning.

Tuesday and Wednesday... MVFR possible with showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Expect some light chop on both lakes this evening before winds
briefly freshen out of the north-northeast later tonight through
early Saturday morning. This will bring another round of choppy
conditions on lake ontario, but again it looks like conditions will
stay below small craft advisory criteria. Gradient flow will relax
some later Saturday afternoon into Sunday as high pressure builds
closer the lakes. This will promote light winds and diminishing
waves.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jm zaff
near term... Jm zaff
short term... Hsk
long term... Jla
aviation... Jm zaff
marine... Jm zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 4 mi64 min N 11 G 13 70°F 1019.9 hPa (-0.0)
45142 - Port Colborne 22 mi64 min NE 14 G 16 70°F 74°F1 ft1019.8 hPa (+0.2)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 24 mi52 min 70°F 1019.9 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 39 mi46 min N 7 G 12 70°F 77°F1020.5 hPa36°F
EREP1 44 mi46 min NNE 7 G 8.9
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 48 mi52 min 69°F 1020.6 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY6 mi2.2 hrsN 910.00 miFair73°F48°F43%1020.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4S5------N9------S3CalmCalmCalm--NE8NE8N9N11N11
G18
N11N10N8N9N7
1 day agoSW10SW7S8--SW4S7--NW9N9--N8N6CalmN5NW7--W4W4W6W5W6W7W75
2 days agoCalmE3E3----------W7--S4S5Calm----S7W9W11W10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.