Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Woods, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 9:09PM Monday July 13, 2020 6:56 AM EDT (10:56 UTC) Moonrise 12:24AMMoonset 1:30PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 356 Pm Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning...then becoming north 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the southeast after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon...then becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the evening. Partly Sunny...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202007130800;;745590 FZUS63 KDTX 121956 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 356 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Weak and broad high pressure, averaging 30.00 inches, will continue building across the central Great Lakes for the early week period. A cold front will then cross the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. LCZ460-130800-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Woods, MI
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location: 42.43, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 131000 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 600 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

AVIATION.

The TAF sites managed to avoid most of the low VFR cloud overnight, but the northern sites are starting to see some low-coverage stratocumulus pockets work through. Broke-out AM lower cloud heights into north/south divisions given the slightly more elevated nature of the west-east propagating southern canopy. Generally expect coverage to increase to BKN during the day after the establishment of the mixed layer allowing for cumulus bases in the 5-7 kft range. Northerly winds remain below 10 knots before veering southerly overnight with the eastward translation of the dominant surface high.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Medium for ceiling at or below 5000 ft today.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

DISCUSSION .

Lake effect stratus/widely scattered showers will linger early this morning over the Thumb region as vorticity lobe pivots through the area and enhances lift in the region a bit. This feature will shift east/southeast by mid morning with any remaining shower activity ending. Stratus will then mix into a scattered cu/strato-cu field during the course of the day. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below average with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s as the cooler air associated with this disturbance linger most of the day.

Shortwave ridging will expand into the area on Tuesday and lead to the beginnings of the next warming trend as highs reach the mid to upper 80s. With surface high pressure prevalent over the area, expect just scattered diurnal cumulus again with humidity levels remaining in check.

Weak shortwave energy will eject into the area by Tuesday night as the shortwave ridge axis shifts just east of the region. This will bring an increasing, but still small, chance of showers to the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday with a few thunderstorms also possible. A strong shortwave will progress into the area Wednesday night and bring the best chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area this forecast period with this activity possibly lingering into Thursday. Severe weather is not much of a concern at this point as a instability remains marginal (especially given the diurnal timing of this disturbance).

After the passage of this well organized shortwave, precipitation chances look pretty meager the remainder of the forecast as upper ridging builds back into the region. Just widely scattered showers and/or thunderstorms can be expected as heat/humidity build into the weekend with this ridging while future shortwaves are largely steered north of the region around its periphery.

The building upper ridge will bring a return of hot weather to the area form late this week into the weekend as highs reach 90 again by Friday and the lower 90s Saturday/Sunday. By this time, humidity levels will become increasingly stifling as well with heat indices perhaps pushing 100F again by Sunday.

MARINE .

Weak and broad high pressure will continue to build across the region for the early week period. Weak moisture convergence in northerly flow may promote isolated showers across the Lake Huron nearshore waters and portions of Saginaw Bay the remainder of tonight, with otherwise dry conditions anticipated through at least early Wednesday. The northerly flow will be gusty at times around 20 knots the remainder of tonight, especially across the open Lake Huron waters and nearshore waters from Port Austin to Port Sanilac where choppy waves of 2-4 feet will also be likely. The short duration of this activity will preclude the mention of a Small Craft Advisory at this time. Winds and waves will then decrease today and into Tuesday as lake breeze flow takes over with high pressure overhead.

HYDROLOGY .

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase on Wednesday with a strong likelihood by Wednesday night as a vigorous shortwave disturbance tracks through the area. Total rainfall from this system looks to reach half an inch in many locations with localized spots possibly receiving an inch. These amounts will not cause any notable flooding, but may lead to localized minor flooding or ponding of water in low lying or poorly drained areas.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . KK DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . IRL HYDROLOGY . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 3 mi57 min WNW 2.9 G 6 64°F 1013.9 hPa (+1.4)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi57 min N 5.8 G 7.8 74°F1011.2 hPa
AGCM4 24 mi57 min 61°F 72°F1013.2 hPa (+1.2)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 45 mi57 min 63°F 1012.1 hPa (+1.2)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 45 mi67 min NNE 11 G 12 69°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 47 mi57 min WNW 6 G 7 61°F 1011.8 hPa (+1.2)57°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI6 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair63°F57°F81%1013.3 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI14 mi61 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F60°F100%1013.1 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI17 mi62 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy62°F58°F89%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3NW4NW7NW5NW45NW10
G16
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NW93N6NE10E9
G16
E6N6N4N4N3N3CalmCalm
1 day agoNW10NW7NW12
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2 days agoS3S7S8SW7S7S7S4W4E4SE5SE6S3E6NE5SE4SW5NW7NW9NW8NW10NW8NW8NW11
G17
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.