Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saugus, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:17AMSunset 8:22PM Monday July 13, 2020 6:40 AM EDT (10:40 UTC) Moonrise 12:36AMMoonset 1:41PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 416 Am Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and tstms this morning, then showers and tstms likely this afternoon. Some tstms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
Tonight..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers and tstms likely in the evening. Some tstms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall in the evening.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely in the morning. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 416 Am Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Gusty southwest winds diminish, but southern waters will continue with marine headlines through this evening. A front moves across the waters mid to late afternoon today, producing scattered showers and storms. The greatest threat with these storms are lightning and gusty winds. A 'high surf advisory' does continue Monday at block island, martha's vineyard, and nantucket for large breaking waves of 5 to 6 feet in the surf zone. Tuesday will feature less in the way of precipitation, but a cold pool aloft will aid in the formation of pop-up Thundershowers. Mid- week high pressure followed by a front on Thursday night into Friday with the next chance for rain. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugus, MA
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location: 42.44, -71.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 130840 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 440 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

SYNOPSIS.

A slow moving front will slide eastward today. This will generate showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may become strong to severe, with localized damaging winds and torrential rains. The heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding. Clearing with cooler and drier conditions for Monday night. Upper low pressure brings more unsettled weather Tuesday, but high pressure then brings fair weather for Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms return on Friday through Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

* Isolated strong to severe storms possible today. Storms will bring threats of damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall, which could produce localized flash flooding.

Positively tilted shortwave trough lifts northeastward offshore and into northern New England by late this afternoon. A negatively tilted trough will dig into the eastern Great Lakes by late this afternoon. At the surface a cold front is extending from eastern Maine through central portions of southern New England into the Mid Atlantic. This front will slowly slide eastward today.

Could have a few rain showers this morning with isolated thunder, but the better shot of precipitation is this afternoon into the evening. Will have dew points generally in the mid to upper 60s across the region, but expect some spots across the south coast to see readings in the low 70s. The lift necessary for thunderstorm development will be provided by the slow moving cold front. Should see MUCAPE values around 1000 to 1500 J/kg with bulk shear values in the 0-6 km layer initially around 35-40 kts, but decreasing to 25-30 kts by this afternoon. These factors combined together will bring southern New England the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms as highlighted by SPCs latest Day 1 Outlook.

The main threat with any strong to severe storms that develop today will be damaging wind gusts and torrential rainfall, which may lead to localized flash flooding, please see the hydro section below for more details here. Will see nearly adiabatic low level lapse rates in place across the region, but mid level lapse rates remain poor with values around 5 to 6 degrees Celsius per km. CAMS suggesting and as highlighted in SPCs outlook a multicellular storm organization given the lower 0-6 km bulk shear values during the afternoon. Still seeing SREF probabilities of over 10,000 units of Craven- Brooks severe index parameter. The 00Z HREF also showing some 2-5 km Updraft Helicity across central and eastern MA.

Increased high temperatures today as flow at 925 hPa will be westerly to northwesterly, which should promote some downsloping. This results in temperatures generally in the 80s across the region.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/.

Tonight .

Trough sliding into northern New England tonight, while the cold front gradually slides offshore. Still could have some strong to severe storms early on in this period, but overall expect activity to be diminishing. Will see slightly cooler dew points in wake of the front, but many locations will still be in the 60s so it still will feel muggy.

Not out of the question there is some fog development especially given winds will be light with clearing skies and recent precipitation. Have not included in the latest update given winds will be northwesterly advecting drier air in, but will likely need to add in areas where precipitation falls.

Low temperatures will generally be in the 60s across the region tonight.

Tuesday .

Closed upper low will be in place across northern New England. Still will have 500 hPa temperatures between -10 to -15 degrees Celsius. This in combination with the July sunshine will result in diurnal showers and thunderstorms developing.

Expect cooler temperatures across the region due to northerly/northwesterly flow at 925 hPa. This advects 10 to 12 degree Celsius 925 hPa air in. Will see high temperatures range from the mid 70s to the low 80s. The warmest readings will be found across the CT River Valley as there should be somewhat of a downsloping component in place.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/.

Highlights .

* Cooler Wed-Thu, especially eastern areas

* Mostly dry until rain chances return Thursday night into Friday

* Warmer temperatures and increased humidity Friday into the weekend

Details .

High pressure ridging moves in mid week keeping things dry while we'll get a break from the heat and humidity. Beyond that zonal steering flow sets up over much of the U.S. with a few shortwaves sliding through. This brings mostly dry conditions, except for Thursday night and Friday when a weak frontal system moves through to our north. While mostly dry, the weekend brings with it the return of more heat and humidity.

Tuesday night showers and thunderstorms should be winding down with the loss of daytime heating as the low moves east offshore and heights are on the rise. Some low level moisture lingers overnight keeping some low to mid clouds around, but still temps will be a bit cooler than the previous night.

Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly dry as high pressure builds south from Quebec at the sfc with mid level ridging aloft. A bit of uncertainty on Wednesday depending on how quickly the low pressure exits . lingering effects could keep a few isolated showers in the area but most will stay dry. We'll enjoy a nice break from the heat and humidity thanks to N/NE flow around the high which keeps western MA/CT in the low 80s; even cooler in the 70s for eastern MA into RI thanks to closer proximity to the marine influence.

Our next chance of rain comes Thursday night as a warm front lifts north and WAA showers materialize ahead of an incoming shortwave. There remains significant disagreement among the guidance in timing the subsequent cold front around Friday, if it makes it this far south at all. Regardless, showers and thunderstorms are likely during the day on Friday. Beyond that confidence is low given the zonal flow and inherent difficulty in timing the disturbances. Trends would indicate potential for a renewed hot and humid airmass.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/.

Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Thru 12Z . High confidence .

VFR through 12Z with south to southwest winds around 5 to 10 kts. Not out of the question there are some showers across the CT River Valley toward daybreak.

Monday . High confidence

VFR for the majority of the forecast. Could see conditions deteriorate to local MVFR/IFR during the afternoon with showers and thunderstorms developing along a slowly moving front. Hard to pin point where these storms will be at this time, but time frame across central MA, northern RI and eastern MA is after 18Z. Any of these storms could bring heavy downpours and strong gusts. Have held off on the heavy shower mention at this point in time given uncertainty on where storms develop and how things evolve, but will need to include in future updates. Did bring visibilities down to MVFR in locations where am most confident in shower/storm activity. Winds S/SW becoming W late.

Expect Cape Cod and the Islands to see low level stratus and fog move in late in the afternoon and into the evening.

Monday Night . Moderate confidence

Showers and thunderstorms diminishing in coverage during the evening. Will see conditions across the interior improve to VFR, but not out of the question a few spot that had showers/storms see some patchy fog develop. Cape Cod and the Islands remaining in MVFR to LIFR stratus and fog.

Tuesday . Moderate confidence

VFR across the interior, but MVFR to LIFR across eastern coastal locations including BOS. Winds generally out of the north, but eastern coastal areas will see onshore flow.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday through Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

MARINE.

Extended the Small Craft Advisory across southern waters west and southwest of Marthas Vineyard through Tuesday. Expect seas to remain heightened at or above 5 ft through this period. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters.

Lower clouds and fog may again develop on the southern waters this afternoon into today. Scattered thunderstorms may become strong Monday afternoon into early evening.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

HYDROLOGY.

430 AM Update .

As for torrential rainfall expecting PWATs of 1.5 to 1.75 which is close to if not just above the 90th percentile per SPCs mesoanalysis. Will also have a warm cloud layer depth of roughly 3 to 4 km. So will have a threat of torrential rainfall. Given the slow moving nature of the frontal boundary there is a threat of flash flooding. Looks like the highest risk of flash flooding is across central and eastern MA and as indicated by WPCs latest Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook.

405 PM Update:

We are looking at a couple of rounds of rain through Monday. The first would amount to light to moderate showers moving in overnight tonight into the first part of Monday. The second round comes in Monday afternoon into early night associated with scattered to numerous thunderstorms along a slowing cold front.

Though some areas have received some rains of late, our area remains abnormally dry. This is reflected by high 1-hourly flash flood guidance which is anywhere from 2 to 2.75" of rain. However, PWAT values remain elevated at values ranging from 1.75-2 inches and support locally heavy downpours. High- res guidance blossoms scattered to numerous thunderstorms along a SW- NE oriented cold front. Signals of thunderstorms backbuilding on the frontal zone and training over the same areas as storms move eastward, could yield torrential rains in a short period of time. HREF neighborhood probabilities for 1" rains in 3-hours are very high at 70-80% from Windsor Locks to Fitchburg eastward to the Boston-Providence/I-95 corridor, with lower probs of 3" rains in 3-hours. If heavier rains fall over a typically vulnerable area, such as the larger cities where rain can go readily to runoff, a localized flash flood threat could materialize.

Antecedent conditions and uncertainties in QPF and placement on the front precludes a Flash Flood Watch at this time. However it may need to be considered in later updates near or east of the frontal boundary, especially as storms are expected to coincide around or with the Monday PM rush hour.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . High Surf Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ023-024. RI . High Surf Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237-255- 256. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ254.

SYNOPSIS . BL/BW NEAR TERM . BL SHORT TERM . BL LONG TERM . BW AVIATION . BL/BW MARINE . BL/BW HYDROLOGY . BL/AL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 6 mi59 min 76°F 65°F1006.3 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 21 mi51 min S 7.8 G 9.7 70°F 69°F2 ft1006 hPa (+0.6)70°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 25 mi97 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 67°F 2 ft1004.4 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 42 mi41 min W 5.1 G 5.1 73°F 1006.4 hPa (+1.1)69°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 44 mi56 min Calm 70°F 1007 hPa68°F
44073 47 mi97 min W 5.8 G 7.8 72°F 68°F
CMLN3 47 mi157 min S 1.9 72°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 48 mi53 min WSW 5.1 G 8 75°F 76°F1008 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi51 min SW 7.8 G 7.8 68°F 3 ft1007.2 hPa (+0.6)68°F
PVDR1 49 mi53 min SSW 4.1 G 6 74°F 1008.1 hPa67°F

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA4 mi47 minS 610.00 miOvercast73°F64°F74%1007.4 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA11 mi48 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds72°F66°F82%1006.4 hPa
Laurence G Hanscom Field Airport, MA14 mi50 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F66°F82%1007.9 hPa
East Milton, MA17 mi50 minSW 7 mi72°F64°F76%1008.3 hPa
Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA19 mi48 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds71°F66°F84%1007.3 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA21 mi47 minS 310.00 miFair72°F66°F84%1007.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBOS

Wind History from BOS (wind in knots)
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2 days agoS5CalmSE3E5E7E9E15E13E14E13E13E14E13E13E13E11E14E17E9E10E10E9SE10SE12

Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Harbor, Massachusetts
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Lynn Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:09 AM EDT     8.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:14 PM EDT     1.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:38 PM EDT     8.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.23.34.76.37.88.48.175.53.82.31.41.72.84.25.87.48.58.77.96.653.3

Tide / Current Tables for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:15 AM EDT     0.89 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:43 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:20 AM EDT     -0.96 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:38 PM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:11 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:48 PM EDT     -1.03 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.60.80.90.80.4-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.30.50.90.90.90.60.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-1-1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.