Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nora, IL

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Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:58PM Saturday August 17, 2019 7:52 AM CDT (12:52 UTC) Moonrise 8:24PMMoonset 6:58AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nora, IL
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location: 42.44, -90     debug


Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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Fxus63 kdvn 171149
afddvn
area forecast discussion
national weather service quad cities ia il
649 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019

Aviation update...

Synopsis
Issued at 358 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019
yet again the area finds itself largely in between active storms
at the moment. One small cluster with a history of very large
hail and damaging wind was located over east central il south of
chicago. This was occurring along a slowing frontal boundary from
lake michigan back through central il, and ahead of an upper level
shortwave within plume of rather steep mid level lapse rates, and
mid level convergence and pooling moisture within secondary
weaker branch of llj. The slowing frontal boundary extends further
back swwd to a meso low in central ks attendant to several severe
storm clusters evolving into an MCS tracking into mo. This
activity was focused along the boundary as well where strong
instability and moisture were pooling as an ejecting upper level
shortwave was fostering increase in LLJ (40+ kts) and attendant
warm advection isentropic ascent. These general ingredients...

surface front, upper level energy and pooling moisture are
progged to focus more into our region over the next 24 hrs
bringing the eventual likelihood of much needed rain, albeit
possibly heavy to locally excessive, and accompanied by a risk of
severe weather.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 358 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019
areas of generally shallow fog in low lying and river valleys
north of hwy 30 may improve or become quite patchy through
daybreak, as clouds continue to increase off deep convection to
our south west. Otherwise, showers and storms expected this
morning mostly south of i-80, as activity shifts east along
slowing frontal zone across northern mo into central il. Could
also see some percolation of isolated widely scattered convection
further north of i-80 later this morning before LLJ wanes. This
weakening LLJ and subsident trend should also lend to more cloud
breaks this afternoon, and allow highs to recover to around 80 or
in the range of 80-85 where more solar insolation is observed.

The diurnal heating may lead to redevelopment of isolated to
scattered convection mid pm through sunset, focusing mostly south
of i-80 again in vicinity of the front. Can't discount a risk for
isolated severe storms with any of this activity, but conditional
upon sufficient instability and weakening of eml.

More likely it appears that storms will increase through the
evening and overnight, as strengthening LLJ (40+ kt) and
attendant isentropic ascent focus north of the front ahead of
an upper level wave shifting across the upper midwest.

Thermodynamic and kinematic environment support potential for
a few supercell storms capable of all modes of severe weather,
including the potential for a few tornadoes (mainly this evening
with ramping llj) given rather impressive shear profiles noted in
some models with backed SE surface winds and strengthening sw
winds to 30-40 kts at 1km owing to progged SRH of 200-300+ m2 s2.

The evening tornado risk would appear right now to be across
southern and west central portions of the cwa, or roughly along
i-80 from west of quad cities on southward into northeast mo and
far west central il. Overnight progged 30+ kts of bulk shear will
favor potential of qlcs mesovortex generation should the activity
grow upscale into lines or bowing segments. Large to possibly
isolated very large hail will also be a hazard tonight in the
presence of modest to seasonably strong deep layer shear and steep
700-500 mb lapse rates around 8c km. Heavy rain and localized
flash flooding will also be possible given pooling deep moisture,
with pwats on the order of 1.75+ inches. This would suggest 1-2
inches of rain likely in some areas, with possibly localized
amounts upwards of 3 to maybe 4 inches in any areas that see
repeated rounds of storms. Lower confidence on the location extent
of these heavier rain amount potential (tied to upscale growth
potential). Given this along with the anomalously dry to moderate
drought conditions prevalent across much of the area, have opted
to hold off on any flash flood headlines at this time.

Long term (Sunday through Friday)
issued at 358 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019
Sunday
scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the
morning with an upper wave right overhead. The main concerns are
very heavy rain rates up to 2 inches per hour with the strongest
cells and the potential for localized flash flooding. The threat for
flash flooding is centered more for the Saturday night into early
Sunday morning period but may linger through the mid morning hours.

As subsidence builds in behind the departing upper disturbance, rain
chances will quickly decrease through midday. Humid conditions and
highs in the 80s will rebuild surface-based instability by mid to
late afternoon which could result in the development of scattered
thunderstorms near or along a surface front. Our latest forecast has
20-40% chances for showers and storms, continuing into Sunday night.

The storm prediction center has a marginal risk for severe storms
from Sunday afternoon into early Sunday night along and southeast of
a line from freeport, il to williamsburg, ia. The models are showing
deep layer shear of 30-40 kts and moderate to high instability
between 2500-3500 j kg. The greatest uncertainty is on the coverage
of storms and location of initiation.

Monday and Tuesday
an upper ridge over the southwest will expand into the central
plains, placing eastern iowa and northwest illinois near the edge of
the heat dome. Model blend peak heat indices have come down slightly
from previous runs. Values near 100 f are now confined to the
southern cwa. There is more uncertainty on high temps and heat
indices on Tuesday with the chance for thunderstorms or an MCS to
track NW to SE along a strong instability gradient. A few factors
supportive of convection are the presence of an upper wave vorticity
max and 850mb temps between 18-21 c. Confidence on the details is
low at this lead time.

Wednesday on
models have a seasonably strong cold front by the middle of next
week, leading to cooler temps and lower humidity. The model blend
has above average temps and more humid conditions by next weekend
with a southerly return flow regime setting up. Uttech

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 625 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will lift to the
northeast this morning and impact kbrl, kmli, and kcid. Brief
heavy downpours and MVFR are the primary concerns.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into
early Sunday morning. This round of rain could bring very heavy
downpours, strong wind gusts, and brief ifr conditions.

Dvn watches warnings advisories
Ia... None.

Il... None.

Mo... None.

Synopsis... Mcclure
short term... Mcclure
long term... Uttech
aviation... Uttech


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe Municipal Airport, WI25 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair63°F58°F87%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEFT

Wind History from EFT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S14S12
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W9W8W8W7W8W6W6SW5W4CalmW5W5Calm
1 day agoN4N6NE6N5NE3NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S3S3S4S5S6S5S6SE3S6S7S10S10S9
2 days agoNE6NE5E3N5N3N7N9N7
G14
N5NE8N13NE9NE4N4N4N4N3N3N4NW6NW5N3N5N5

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Wind Forecast for Quad Cities, IA/IL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Quad Cities, IA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.