Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nora, IL
May 5, 2024 3:15 PM CDT (20:15 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:45 AM Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 3:27 AM Moonset 4:23 PM |
Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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FXUS63 KDVN 051949 AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 249 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- The upper level pattern remains active, with periodic chances for rain through next week.
- A potent system arriving Monday night into Tuesday will bring a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms.
- Scattered storms remain possible on Wednesday before temperatures cool off late in the week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
This Evening and Tonight: Quiet weather is expected with high pressure overhead leading to light winds, dry conditions, and lows in the 40s to lower 50s.
Monday Morning and Afternoon: The area of high pressure will begin to shift to the east into the Great Lakes region, setting up a return flow locally and increasing low-level moisture. It looks to be another really nice day with highs in the lower 70s far north to mid/upper 70s central and south.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Monday Night into Early Tuesday Morning
Widespread showers and storms are likely during this period.
Latest NBM rain chances are 70-100%. Models are in agreement on an organized QLCS moving through central Iowa and north- central Missouri during the evening to early nighttime hours, before reaching our far western/southwest outlook area near or after midnight. The expectation is for this system to gradually weaken as it pushes eastward into the forecast area as it runs into a more stable air mass. However, it could still be strong to severe across the western to central portions of the area where there is an overlap between sufficient shear and instability. Moderate low-level shear (~30 kts in the 0-3 km layer) will help to maintain a balance between the convection and its associated gust front.
SPC has Scotland County, MO in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms with a Marginal Risk to the east and northeast (level 1 of 5). The primary threats are damaging winds with a low risk for an isolated tornado (2% within 25 miles of a point).
This convection will affect most of the area between midnight and 10 AM Monday night/Tuesday AM. PWAT values near 1.25" are forecast with strong WAA forcing. Thus, rainfall on the order of 0.50" to 1" is likely where storms maintain a mature convective signature, while lesser totals are expected in the east 1/3 where dissipating convection is more likely Tue AM.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Nearly all deterministic models suggest that the surface boundary for active storms will be south of the area Tuesday, with additional placement of lower coverage showers/storms closer to the low center near and north of the area. A SPC forecast of Marginal (level 1 of 5) will be in place over our Illinois counties. Scattered storm chances continue again on Wednesday as a warm front lifts into the southern portion of the outlook area. Confidence is low on the details this far out, but SPC has a Slight Risk for severe storms across the far south.
By late in the week, all guidance suggests a broad deep upper trof will build into the Great Lakes through the end of the week. This will bring cooler weather, along with frequent, somewhat diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm chances through the end of the week. Highs in the 60s are forecast, but pending cloud cover, we could be limited as low as the mid 50s in this pattern. Rainfall, while not heavy, could see daily totals of ~0.25 inch in scattered showers/storms.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
High pressure will remain in control through the period with prevailing VFR.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 249 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- The upper level pattern remains active, with periodic chances for rain through next week.
- A potent system arriving Monday night into Tuesday will bring a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms.
- Scattered storms remain possible on Wednesday before temperatures cool off late in the week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
This Evening and Tonight: Quiet weather is expected with high pressure overhead leading to light winds, dry conditions, and lows in the 40s to lower 50s.
Monday Morning and Afternoon: The area of high pressure will begin to shift to the east into the Great Lakes region, setting up a return flow locally and increasing low-level moisture. It looks to be another really nice day with highs in the lower 70s far north to mid/upper 70s central and south.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Monday Night into Early Tuesday Morning
Widespread showers and storms are likely during this period.
Latest NBM rain chances are 70-100%. Models are in agreement on an organized QLCS moving through central Iowa and north- central Missouri during the evening to early nighttime hours, before reaching our far western/southwest outlook area near or after midnight. The expectation is for this system to gradually weaken as it pushes eastward into the forecast area as it runs into a more stable air mass. However, it could still be strong to severe across the western to central portions of the area where there is an overlap between sufficient shear and instability. Moderate low-level shear (~30 kts in the 0-3 km layer) will help to maintain a balance between the convection and its associated gust front.
SPC has Scotland County, MO in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms with a Marginal Risk to the east and northeast (level 1 of 5). The primary threats are damaging winds with a low risk for an isolated tornado (2% within 25 miles of a point).
This convection will affect most of the area between midnight and 10 AM Monday night/Tuesday AM. PWAT values near 1.25" are forecast with strong WAA forcing. Thus, rainfall on the order of 0.50" to 1" is likely where storms maintain a mature convective signature, while lesser totals are expected in the east 1/3 where dissipating convection is more likely Tue AM.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Nearly all deterministic models suggest that the surface boundary for active storms will be south of the area Tuesday, with additional placement of lower coverage showers/storms closer to the low center near and north of the area. A SPC forecast of Marginal (level 1 of 5) will be in place over our Illinois counties. Scattered storm chances continue again on Wednesday as a warm front lifts into the southern portion of the outlook area. Confidence is low on the details this far out, but SPC has a Slight Risk for severe storms across the far south.
By late in the week, all guidance suggests a broad deep upper trof will build into the Great Lakes through the end of the week. This will bring cooler weather, along with frequent, somewhat diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm chances through the end of the week. Highs in the 60s are forecast, but pending cloud cover, we could be limited as low as the mid 50s in this pattern. Rainfall, while not heavy, could see daily totals of ~0.25 inch in scattered showers/storms.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
High pressure will remain in control through the period with prevailing VFR.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
Airport Reports
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Quad Cities, IA,
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