Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nora, IL
September 23, 2023 9:07 AM CDT (14:07 UTC)
Sunrise 6:45AM Sunset 6:56PM Moonrise 2:50PM Moonset 11:22PM
Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KDVN 231053 AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 553 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
AVIATION UPDATE
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Key messages:
1. Most of the daylight hours look dry today.
2. Showers and storms move into the area this evening and overnight.
3. Marginal risk for severe weather this evening mainly across Iowa.
Discussion:
Main upper level closed low is expected to push into the area this afternoon and into the evening. Chances are that some nocturnal convection associated with a weak H85 LLJ will be ongoing at daybreak across eastern NE and western IA. This stuff should generally weaken as the H85 LLJ subsides. A cold front is forecast to push into the western CWA later today as well. Guidance also has a leading wave this afternoon. Either the cold front or the old OFB and leading wave could lead to additional storm development this afternoon west of the area.
Looking at the CAMs for initiation, CAMs aren't sure what initiates first, the OFB or the cold front. All CAM guidance have storms just to the west of the area around 00z Sunday. This activity weakens as it moves into our area this evening. This makes sense, the main wave swings negative to our west and pulls north into MN taking the better shear with it. The better H85 jet is north of the area and we look to be in the entrance region of this LLJ. Honestly, I'm not sure which goes first, the OFB or the cold front. This will require the day shift to keep an eye on storms this AM to make this call. If the OFB materializes and fires storms first, we could see some strong/severe storms across our west prior to 00z. If it doesn't, expect strong storms later across the area.
Looking at the parameter space for severe storm development yields a small area with good shear. With this wave pulling north, surface winds back enough that dry air from the east moves into our CWA. Moisture pooling and better CAPE lies with the cold front. There is a potential for us to have decent deep layer shear (~35knts) this afternoon with a limited thermodynamic environment.
With the vectors perpendicular to the forcing, wonder if we see some LP storms before storms grow up scale. The better shear and CAPE space is west of the area and thus the better severe chance is there. Unlike yesterday, 0-3km CAPE looks weak, suggesting a low tornado threat. With the shear and updraft organization, likely a wind/hail threat with weakening storms late across the area as the storms quickly move east into drier/lower CAPE air this evening.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Key messages:
1. Another potential sneaker funnel/weak tornado event Sunday.
2. Upper level low continues its slow exit of the area bringing chances of rain to the area.
3. Temperatures gradually warm as ridging builds into the area to end the week.
Discussion:
Guidance continues to have pretty good agreement on the flow into next week despite guidance usually struggling with this. The closed low looks to lumber across the area until weakening and being reabsorbed into the flow later in the week. After this, ridging builds into the area. The main question is if the forecast is too fast with this occurring. Guidance usually does this, but with very consistent forecasts between runs, I tend to buy into that idea over a slower one. That said, my confidence in this is low at the time.
Looking to Sunday, another potential setup for strong/severe storms and tornadoes. Even though wave is north of the area, the deep layer shear that does exist is in the lowest 0/3km of atmosphere. 0/3km CAPE around 175 J/kg is more than enough CAPE in the llvls to stretch that shear. Hodographs again depict good curvature in the llvls due to easterly flow. While this isn't a robust thermodynamic environment, the thermo that does exist is collocated with decent shear in the profile. This is enough to cause updraft rotation. Main question is what left over convection could be going on. We may be stable enough at the sfc not to have any issues and I have low confidence on overnight convection.
Later shifts will need to keep an eye on this again. Will leave out of the HWO at this time due to that uncertainty and will keep mention to it here in AFD.
AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
VFR conditions are expected at all sites except for CID. MVFR vsbys are possible still at CID this AM so left in the forecast.
Otherwise, winds are increasing to the mid to upper 20 kt range today and should stay up through the period. Weakening storms will move into the area after 00z tonight.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 553 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
AVIATION UPDATE
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Key messages:
1. Most of the daylight hours look dry today.
2. Showers and storms move into the area this evening and overnight.
3. Marginal risk for severe weather this evening mainly across Iowa.
Discussion:
Main upper level closed low is expected to push into the area this afternoon and into the evening. Chances are that some nocturnal convection associated with a weak H85 LLJ will be ongoing at daybreak across eastern NE and western IA. This stuff should generally weaken as the H85 LLJ subsides. A cold front is forecast to push into the western CWA later today as well. Guidance also has a leading wave this afternoon. Either the cold front or the old OFB and leading wave could lead to additional storm development this afternoon west of the area.
Looking at the CAMs for initiation, CAMs aren't sure what initiates first, the OFB or the cold front. All CAM guidance have storms just to the west of the area around 00z Sunday. This activity weakens as it moves into our area this evening. This makes sense, the main wave swings negative to our west and pulls north into MN taking the better shear with it. The better H85 jet is north of the area and we look to be in the entrance region of this LLJ. Honestly, I'm not sure which goes first, the OFB or the cold front. This will require the day shift to keep an eye on storms this AM to make this call. If the OFB materializes and fires storms first, we could see some strong/severe storms across our west prior to 00z. If it doesn't, expect strong storms later across the area.
Looking at the parameter space for severe storm development yields a small area with good shear. With this wave pulling north, surface winds back enough that dry air from the east moves into our CWA. Moisture pooling and better CAPE lies with the cold front. There is a potential for us to have decent deep layer shear (~35knts) this afternoon with a limited thermodynamic environment.
With the vectors perpendicular to the forcing, wonder if we see some LP storms before storms grow up scale. The better shear and CAPE space is west of the area and thus the better severe chance is there. Unlike yesterday, 0-3km CAPE looks weak, suggesting a low tornado threat. With the shear and updraft organization, likely a wind/hail threat with weakening storms late across the area as the storms quickly move east into drier/lower CAPE air this evening.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Key messages:
1. Another potential sneaker funnel/weak tornado event Sunday.
2. Upper level low continues its slow exit of the area bringing chances of rain to the area.
3. Temperatures gradually warm as ridging builds into the area to end the week.
Discussion:
Guidance continues to have pretty good agreement on the flow into next week despite guidance usually struggling with this. The closed low looks to lumber across the area until weakening and being reabsorbed into the flow later in the week. After this, ridging builds into the area. The main question is if the forecast is too fast with this occurring. Guidance usually does this, but with very consistent forecasts between runs, I tend to buy into that idea over a slower one. That said, my confidence in this is low at the time.
Looking to Sunday, another potential setup for strong/severe storms and tornadoes. Even though wave is north of the area, the deep layer shear that does exist is in the lowest 0/3km of atmosphere. 0/3km CAPE around 175 J/kg is more than enough CAPE in the llvls to stretch that shear. Hodographs again depict good curvature in the llvls due to easterly flow. While this isn't a robust thermodynamic environment, the thermo that does exist is collocated with decent shear in the profile. This is enough to cause updraft rotation. Main question is what left over convection could be going on. We may be stable enough at the sfc not to have any issues and I have low confidence on overnight convection.
Later shifts will need to keep an eye on this again. Will leave out of the HWO at this time due to that uncertainty and will keep mention to it here in AFD.
AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
VFR conditions are expected at all sites except for CID. MVFR vsbys are possible still at CID this AM so left in the forecast.
Otherwise, winds are increasing to the mid to upper 20 kt range today and should stay up through the period. Weakening storms will move into the area after 00z tonight.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Wind History from EFT
(wind in knots)
Quad Cities, IA,
Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE