Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nora, IL
July 3, 2024 12:27 AM CDT (05:27 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:25 AM Sunset 8:40 PM Moonrise 1:55 AM Moonset 6:11 PM |
Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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FXUS63 KDVN 030455 AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Flash flood watch is in effect for much of the area until 1 AM. Very heavy rainfall is possible with any storm through tonight. There is a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall and flash flooding generally for our parts of SE IA.
A Slight Risk area encompassed the rest of the area.
- Severe thunderstorms are possible 3 PM to 10 PM, with all hazards possible. The Severe Risk is highest (level 3 of 5) in our southwest CWA
- Showers and storms are possible on Independence Day as a warm front lifts north through the area followed by a cold front.
There is a Marginal Risk for the western third of the CWA
- Moderate to Major River Flooding continues, with further changes to river forecasts expected as we transition from predicted rainfall to observed rainfall over the next 36 hrs.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Not much has changed with the going short term forecast. We have expanded the Flood Watch to include the NW IL counties.
Heavy rain will be likely with any storm that develops as well as in areas that see multiple rounds of storms. A strong wave will move across the area tonight pushing a cold front through the area. The level of moisture in the air is extremely high and will increase as a LLJ aims into the area. A band of PWATs of 2 to 2.5 inches will be moving across the area late this PM and tonight. By this evening, near record or record PWAT values will be possible for our area! The HRRR has 2 to 2.4 inch PWATs initially across the NW CWA with it translating across the southern, and especially southwestern, CWA during the evening into the late night. WPC has introduced a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding in parts of our western and southwestern CWA counties in IA.
A warm front is lifting into the area this afternoon. Satellite has shown a good degree of sunshine across much of the CWA
There is a wide range in temps across the area with upper 60s in rain cooled areas along highway 20 to the mid and upper 80s south. Dew points around 70 are seen in those southern areas with higher values in south central IA. MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J'kg are estimated just south of the warm front. This could further increase to over 3000 J/kg. As SPC indicated, there is moderate deep layer shear evident on TOP sounding of 40 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear. This could be enhanced along the frontal boundary, so the position of the boundary will be critical to monitor. All modes are in play, with damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail all possible. Damaging winds with water-loaded downbursts possible.
This is expected to affect our NW CWA 3 to 6 PM, and into the Dubuque to Iowa City to Ottumwa areas 5 to 7 PM, and then along and east of the MS River in the 7 to 9 PM time frame. The severe potential is expected to decrease after dark and as the main line of storms moves into the eastern CWA SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for much of the area except our northern IA counties, and Stephenson, Hancock and McDonough in IL until 9 PM.
Precip chances exit the area NW to SE overnight. Dry conditions are expected Wednesday with sunshine.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Wednesday night...The next upstream short wave/upper trof will look to propagate eastward acrs the northwestern plains, with some LLVL baroclinic tightening in convergence zone to the lee of this process from acrs KS into MO. Frontal and storm outflow from earlier in the day also to enhance the baroclinicity from west-to-east acrs these southern areas. With nocturnal southerly LLJ impingement on the LLVL front, the MCS spawning grounds appears right now to be acrs KS into western MO, with resultant convective system possibly propagating acrs MO into southern IL through Thu morning. Some chance northeastern flank may make it acrs the southern DVN CWA if even in an slightly elevated fashion and will need POPs for that potential. We probably won't need anymore rainfall in those areas after tonight, so it could be hydro-sensitive.
Thursday the 4th...We could have more showers and storms developing and creeping further northward up toward I80 Thu morning on the west or northwestern flank of the southern IL/SE MO MCS if southwesterly LLJ streams up that portion along with ongoing short wave lift.
Locally heavy rainfall again a possibility over areas that probably by then will be run-off/flood sensitive. As the upper trof axis continues to approach acrs central IA, there may be further northward sctrd convection developing acrs central into eastern IA along and inverted sfc trof Thursday afternoon into the evening.
With the projected slow movement of the upper trof, sctrd to isolated showers/storms may linger well into the night. The potential for strong to severe storms is uncertain at this time, but there may be some adequate shear. Thursday high temps challenging with the cloud and precip possibilities, but will advertise 50 percentile low 80s for now.
Friday...Longer range projections suggest upper low complex to meander eastward acrs WI, with cool pool aloft effects making for isolated to wdly sctrd instability showers possible acrs the area, especially north of I-80. Ambient cumulus, a few showers and the cool pool itself may keep temps in the 70s to around 80, so a below normal day for July.
Saturday and Sunday...Medium range ensemble patterns hint at rather broad upper troffiness establishing or more accurately getting re- established acrs much of the upper midwest by another digging northern stream upper wave into the upper MS RVR Valley. Hopefully most of Saturday will be dry ahead of this incoming process with moderating temps back into the 80s. There may be a few showers and storms in the north Sat night, but as the upper trof axis slides overhead, Sunday afternoon and evening may be a better chance for isolated to sctrd showers and storms to occur. Seasonable temps in the low to mid 80s Sunday.
Early next week...Upper jet and synoptic scale feature progs suggest the longer wave upper trof to linger and even deepen acrs much of the mid to upper MS RVR Valley this period. This would allow for wdly sctrd shower and storm development in the afternoon heating under this feature. The unorganized buoyancy pop up type precip warrants only low CHC POPs at this juncture inn time. Near seasonable to somewhat below normal temps this period.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Area of thunderstorms in southeast IA, northeast MO, and western IL (including KBRL/KMLI) will gradually end overnight. Local IFR cigs/vis in fog will occur briefly in the wake of the rain before a cold front brings VFR conds later tonight and through Wednesday. West winds around 10 knots behind the front.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 455 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New Today:
Maquoketa River at Manchester is in a Warning now for Minor flooding.
Mississippi River at Keokuk is now expected to crest in Major Category.
Discussion...
Overall the forecasts along the MS River have been increased and are trending to rise slightly faster than prior forecasts.
Locations from Dubuque to Keokuk are expected to crest over their respective Major Flood Stage levels. At Gregory Landing, a crest in the Moderate category is expected. The crest is forecast near Dubuque and Bellevue on July 4th and 5th, with sites from Fulton to Keokuk seeing a crest between July 6th and 8th.
On the Maquoketa at Manchester, recent heavy rains from earlier today and rain expected this evening is expected to push it over flood stage late tonight and early tomorrow morning. It should drop below flood tomorrow afternoon.
Showers and storms tonight area expected to produce torrential downpours as we are seeing a very moisture-laden air mass moving across the area. In addition, some areas may see repeated rounds of heavy rain-producing storms. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible across much of the area tonight, with locations south and west of a line from Cedar Rapids, to Iowa City, to Mount Pleasant, to Memphis possibly seeing 2 to 4 inches or more! There is a Moderate Risk (level 2 of 4) for the aforementioned area. Flash flooding will be possible. Seek higher ground if you get a warning and never drive into flood waters!
Observed rainfall amounts in the past 24 hours upstream of DeWitt were not as high as forecast. The crest is still expected to be in the Major flood category, but will be delayed and slighly lower.
Additional rises are expected on the Iowa, Cedar, English, Wapsipinicon and Maquoketa river basins.
Additional flood watches and warnings are possible over the next 24 hours.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for IAZ041-042-052>054- 063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for ILZ001-002-007-009- 015-016-024>026-034-035.
MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ009-010.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Flash flood watch is in effect for much of the area until 1 AM. Very heavy rainfall is possible with any storm through tonight. There is a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall and flash flooding generally for our parts of SE IA.
A Slight Risk area encompassed the rest of the area.
- Severe thunderstorms are possible 3 PM to 10 PM, with all hazards possible. The Severe Risk is highest (level 3 of 5) in our southwest CWA
- Showers and storms are possible on Independence Day as a warm front lifts north through the area followed by a cold front.
There is a Marginal Risk for the western third of the CWA
- Moderate to Major River Flooding continues, with further changes to river forecasts expected as we transition from predicted rainfall to observed rainfall over the next 36 hrs.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Not much has changed with the going short term forecast. We have expanded the Flood Watch to include the NW IL counties.
Heavy rain will be likely with any storm that develops as well as in areas that see multiple rounds of storms. A strong wave will move across the area tonight pushing a cold front through the area. The level of moisture in the air is extremely high and will increase as a LLJ aims into the area. A band of PWATs of 2 to 2.5 inches will be moving across the area late this PM and tonight. By this evening, near record or record PWAT values will be possible for our area! The HRRR has 2 to 2.4 inch PWATs initially across the NW CWA with it translating across the southern, and especially southwestern, CWA during the evening into the late night. WPC has introduced a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding in parts of our western and southwestern CWA counties in IA.
A warm front is lifting into the area this afternoon. Satellite has shown a good degree of sunshine across much of the CWA
There is a wide range in temps across the area with upper 60s in rain cooled areas along highway 20 to the mid and upper 80s south. Dew points around 70 are seen in those southern areas with higher values in south central IA. MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J'kg are estimated just south of the warm front. This could further increase to over 3000 J/kg. As SPC indicated, there is moderate deep layer shear evident on TOP sounding of 40 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear. This could be enhanced along the frontal boundary, so the position of the boundary will be critical to monitor. All modes are in play, with damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail all possible. Damaging winds with water-loaded downbursts possible.
This is expected to affect our NW CWA 3 to 6 PM, and into the Dubuque to Iowa City to Ottumwa areas 5 to 7 PM, and then along and east of the MS River in the 7 to 9 PM time frame. The severe potential is expected to decrease after dark and as the main line of storms moves into the eastern CWA SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for much of the area except our northern IA counties, and Stephenson, Hancock and McDonough in IL until 9 PM.
Precip chances exit the area NW to SE overnight. Dry conditions are expected Wednesday with sunshine.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Wednesday night...The next upstream short wave/upper trof will look to propagate eastward acrs the northwestern plains, with some LLVL baroclinic tightening in convergence zone to the lee of this process from acrs KS into MO. Frontal and storm outflow from earlier in the day also to enhance the baroclinicity from west-to-east acrs these southern areas. With nocturnal southerly LLJ impingement on the LLVL front, the MCS spawning grounds appears right now to be acrs KS into western MO, with resultant convective system possibly propagating acrs MO into southern IL through Thu morning. Some chance northeastern flank may make it acrs the southern DVN CWA if even in an slightly elevated fashion and will need POPs for that potential. We probably won't need anymore rainfall in those areas after tonight, so it could be hydro-sensitive.
Thursday the 4th...We could have more showers and storms developing and creeping further northward up toward I80 Thu morning on the west or northwestern flank of the southern IL/SE MO MCS if southwesterly LLJ streams up that portion along with ongoing short wave lift.
Locally heavy rainfall again a possibility over areas that probably by then will be run-off/flood sensitive. As the upper trof axis continues to approach acrs central IA, there may be further northward sctrd convection developing acrs central into eastern IA along and inverted sfc trof Thursday afternoon into the evening.
With the projected slow movement of the upper trof, sctrd to isolated showers/storms may linger well into the night. The potential for strong to severe storms is uncertain at this time, but there may be some adequate shear. Thursday high temps challenging with the cloud and precip possibilities, but will advertise 50 percentile low 80s for now.
Friday...Longer range projections suggest upper low complex to meander eastward acrs WI, with cool pool aloft effects making for isolated to wdly sctrd instability showers possible acrs the area, especially north of I-80. Ambient cumulus, a few showers and the cool pool itself may keep temps in the 70s to around 80, so a below normal day for July.
Saturday and Sunday...Medium range ensemble patterns hint at rather broad upper troffiness establishing or more accurately getting re- established acrs much of the upper midwest by another digging northern stream upper wave into the upper MS RVR Valley. Hopefully most of Saturday will be dry ahead of this incoming process with moderating temps back into the 80s. There may be a few showers and storms in the north Sat night, but as the upper trof axis slides overhead, Sunday afternoon and evening may be a better chance for isolated to sctrd showers and storms to occur. Seasonable temps in the low to mid 80s Sunday.
Early next week...Upper jet and synoptic scale feature progs suggest the longer wave upper trof to linger and even deepen acrs much of the mid to upper MS RVR Valley this period. This would allow for wdly sctrd shower and storm development in the afternoon heating under this feature. The unorganized buoyancy pop up type precip warrants only low CHC POPs at this juncture inn time. Near seasonable to somewhat below normal temps this period.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Area of thunderstorms in southeast IA, northeast MO, and western IL (including KBRL/KMLI) will gradually end overnight. Local IFR cigs/vis in fog will occur briefly in the wake of the rain before a cold front brings VFR conds later tonight and through Wednesday. West winds around 10 knots behind the front.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 455 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New Today:
Maquoketa River at Manchester is in a Warning now for Minor flooding.
Mississippi River at Keokuk is now expected to crest in Major Category.
Discussion...
Overall the forecasts along the MS River have been increased and are trending to rise slightly faster than prior forecasts.
Locations from Dubuque to Keokuk are expected to crest over their respective Major Flood Stage levels. At Gregory Landing, a crest in the Moderate category is expected. The crest is forecast near Dubuque and Bellevue on July 4th and 5th, with sites from Fulton to Keokuk seeing a crest between July 6th and 8th.
On the Maquoketa at Manchester, recent heavy rains from earlier today and rain expected this evening is expected to push it over flood stage late tonight and early tomorrow morning. It should drop below flood tomorrow afternoon.
Showers and storms tonight area expected to produce torrential downpours as we are seeing a very moisture-laden air mass moving across the area. In addition, some areas may see repeated rounds of heavy rain-producing storms. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible across much of the area tonight, with locations south and west of a line from Cedar Rapids, to Iowa City, to Mount Pleasant, to Memphis possibly seeing 2 to 4 inches or more! There is a Moderate Risk (level 2 of 4) for the aforementioned area. Flash flooding will be possible. Seek higher ground if you get a warning and never drive into flood waters!
Observed rainfall amounts in the past 24 hours upstream of DeWitt were not as high as forecast. The crest is still expected to be in the Major flood category, but will be delayed and slighly lower.
Additional rises are expected on the Iowa, Cedar, English, Wapsipinicon and Maquoketa river basins.
Additional flood watches and warnings are possible over the next 24 hours.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for IAZ041-042-052>054- 063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for ILZ001-002-007-009- 015-016-024>026-034-035.
MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ009-010.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KEFT
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KEFT
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KEFT
Wind History graph: EFT
(wind in knots)
Quad Cities, IA,
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