Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ravena, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 4:23PM Sunday December 15, 2019 6:53 PM EST (23:53 UTC) Moonrise 9:04PMMoonset 11:20AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ravena, NY
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location: 42.45, -73.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 152332 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 632 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. Gusty winds and colder temperatures will affect the region through tonight. High pressure will be over the region on Monday, providing dry and seasonably cold conditions. Another storm system approaching from the south and west is expected to bring snow and or a wintry mix to the region late Monday night through Tuesday. The best chance for a wintry mix will be for areas south of Albany.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. As of 630 pm, winds have diminished such that gusts in excess of 40 kt are no longer expected, so the Wind Advisory has been cancelled. It is still quite breezy, with most sites gusting in the 20-30 kt range. These winds will only gradually diminish through the night. Isolated to scattered light snow showers can still be found over most areas aside from the Mid Hudson Valley and Northwest Connecticut, but these too should end over most areas by around 03Z as higher pressures arrive and inversion heights lower. Forecast is in good shape with minimal changes needed.

Previous discussion .

As of 400 PM EST . Gusty west-northwest winds and scattered snow showers affecting the region late this afternoon, with a cyclonic flow regime still in place. NYS Mesonet and ASOS obs across the area indicating continues wind gusts between 30-45 mph. The strongest winds are occurring either where there are either breaks of sunshine or convective snow showers promoting deeper mixing. The snow showers were previously lake effect bands that became cellular due to well- mixed and fairly unstable low level environment. There have been some borderline heavier snow showers and brief squalls around, which will continue over the next few hours.

Temperatures have cooled into the 20s to lower 30s behind a secondary cold front moving through the Capital District. South of this boundary, temps were in the lower 40s. COlder air will continue to build south and east this evening.

Snow shower activity will decrease this evening, as high pressure builds in from the west and inversion heights lower, with the mixed layer becoming more shallow. This will allow winds to also decrease this evening. The Wind Advisory continues through 7 PM. Low temps will be colder than recent nights, with lows ranging from the single digits in the Adirondacks to lower 20s in the Hudson Valley from Albany southward.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Monday will be a dry and seasonable cold day, as high pressure gradually moves eastward across the region. Cloud cover should generally be limited to areas south of Albany, closer to where a frontal boundary will be setting up over the mid Atlantic region. Most sources of guidance have trended towards any precip holding off until Monday night, so will mention dry conditions into the evening.

The next storm system will then affect the region late Monday night through Tuesday. This system looks to be quite progressive due to an open wave positively tilted trough aloft. Model guidance still not converging with respect to QPF and how far north the warm nose aloft will get. The surface cyclone is expected to track south of our region. There will be enough cold air in place through the depth of the column for precip to begin as snow across the entire area. The first change from the previous forecast was to delay the onset of snow, developing across areas south of Albany after midnight and closer to 4-8 AM from around Albany northward. The snow will generally begin from south to north, as isentropic lift increases. Many sources of guidance indicating a warm nose aloft moving in across southern areas by early Tuesday morning. The main questions with the thermal profile area how far north this warm nose will get and the magnitude resulting in more sleet or freezing rain. Will favor the NAM/ECMWF thermal profile for this forecast. However, there is overall low confidence in the guidance with regards to precip type, especially for areas south of Albany. So for now will mention a mix of snow, sleet south of Albany, with possible freezing rain across parts of Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield counties by Tuesday morning. Regardless of exact precip type, the Tuesday morning commute will likely be affected by snow and/or a mix across much of the area, causing slippery travel conditions.

With regards to QPF and resulting snow accumulations, this appears to be an Advisory level event. There are still some significant QPF discrepancies between the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/NAM, with the GFS indicating the most and the ECMWF the least. The NAM is in the middle. Had to take a blended approach, using WPC QPF as a starting point. Snow ratios do not look overly high with this system, as investigating of forecast soundings from the NAM indicate the dendritic growth zone to be displaced above the maximum omega. This should limit accumulations. The probabilistic snowfall forecast upper range (90th percentile) is only around 5 inches, thus the expectation of Advisory level snow. We are forecasting between 2-5 inches of snow from around Albany northward. Some ice will also be possible across southern areas where snowfall totals are only expected to be around 1-3 inches. Surface temperatures on Tuesday should remain below freezing for much of the area, maybe warming into the mid 30s for valley locations south of Albany.

The snow should end fairly quickly by early Tuesday evening, possibly even just prior to much of the evening commute. Most sources of guidance indicating snow tapering off rather fast as the wave tracks out to sea. A few snow showers will be possible mainly over the higher terrain Tuesday night, but most areas will be dry.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The long term forecast will begin with snow showers and squalls on Wednesday, then mainly dry and cold conditions through the remainder of the period.

A strong upper-level low will sweep across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Wednesday. This will also drag a surface low and arctic cold front through the region at this time. Strong dynamics and steep lapse rates with this system will lead to scattered snow showers and squalls across much of the area. Within any of these squalls, strong winds and reduced visibilities are likely. A light accumulation of snow will be possible for all locations with perhaps the highest amounts in the Adirondacks.

In the wake of the arctic front, temperatures Wednesday night will tumble and a northwesterly flow of air will set up lake- effect snow showers across parts of the Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and Catskills. 850 hPa temperatures fall below -20 C, which in turn will lead to overnight lows below zero across the Adirondacks and the single digits elsewhere. Gusty winds will make it feel even colder.

High pressure from Canada will slowly build across the area Thursday through Saturday. Any lake-effect snow showers will gradually come to an end as drier air filters into the region. Despite some sunshine, highs in most locations will not reach 20 F on Thursday. It will remain windy on Thursday as well. Winds will lighten up for Friday and Saturday. Highs will range from the teens in the Adirondacks to the 20s elsewhere on Friday to the 20s and lower 30s by Saturday.

There remains little model consistency as to if a storm will affect the region by the end of next weekend. The 12 UTC model guidance has backed off on any phasing of a system across the Great Lakes and another system across the southeastern United States. For now, will maintain nothing more than slight chance pops at this time.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Scattered snow showers continue to be around the vicinity of KALB/KPSF/KGFL, although these should diminish by 02Z or so. MVFR cigs/vsby is possible briefly if a shower moves over the terminals through this time. Otherwise, VFR is expected to be the rule for the TAF period. Coverage of clouds should diminish through the night, with some mid and upper level clouds spreading into the region on Monday.

Winds will continue to be strong into tonight, although gradually diminishing especially after 06Z. Westerly gusts of 20-30kt can be expected until then. Winds will continue to diminish on Monday, westerly to southwesterly at 10 kt or less.

Outlook .

Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SN. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SN. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHSN. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

HYDROLOGY. There are still river flood warnings in effect at Falls Village and Gaylordsville along the Housatonic. River levels are cresting and are expected to fall below flood stage on Monday.

Another storm system will bring snow and or a wintry mix to the region, with bitter arctic cold expected from the middle of next week through at least the end of the work week. With colder air in place and primarily frozen precip expected, no additional flooding is anticipated. Ice will build on some bodies of water by later this week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . JPV NEAR TERM . Thompson/JPV SHORT TERM . JPV LONG TERM . Rathbun AVIATION . Thompson HYDROLOGY . JPV


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 31 mi83 min WSW 6 39°F 1014 hPa21°F
TKPN6 31 mi53 min S 2.9 G 7 38°F 36°F1015.2 hPa (+4.9)17°F
NPXN6 44 mi83 min WSW 12 40°F 1014 hPa23°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 93 mi53 min WNW 13 G 22 42°F 42°F1013.7 hPa (+4.9)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 94 mi53 min WNW 8 G 19

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY21 mi62 minWNW 23 G 3210.00 miA Few Clouds and Windy34°F18°F52%1015 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KALB

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE4N4CalmCalmN3N3N4NW3N5N3CalmCalmW6N5CalmNW4N3CalmSE3NE3CalmCalmSW3Calm
2 days agoS5S12S6S11S7S10S14
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Tide / Current Tables for New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York
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New Baltimore
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:41 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:24 AM EST     4.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:19 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:40 PM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:38 PM EST     5.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.20.823.13.84.143.32.21.30.90.50.51.12.43.84.85.35.44.83.52.31.4

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:08 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:41 AM EST     3.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:19 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:07 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:55 PM EST     5.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.10.21.32.63.53.943.42.41.40.80.40.10.41.63.14.45.15.34.93.82.51.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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