Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 3:35 AM   Moonset 2:39 PM

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FXUS61 KALY 031952 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 352 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will provide continued dry conditions through tonight. The high will only move slightly east off the coast through Saturday, with a frontal system slowly approaching from the west. Clouds will increase on Saturday, with chances for showers developing west of the Hudson Valley. Showers will become more likely by Sunday as the system tracks east across the area with cool temperatures.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Just some areas of thin high clouds across NY State into western New England. Low level ridging in eastern New England slowly building offshore as upper ridging over our region providing some larger scale subsidence. Light southeast to south low level flow could support development of some low clouds tonight, especially in the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and southern Berkshires, but low levels have been drying and inversions are being mixed out, so low clouds may be more sparse than last night. Clouds associated with the slowly approaching frontal system in the Great Lakes and OH Valley will stay mainly to the west overnight.

Light winds and just thin high clouds will allow for some radiational cooling. Lows by daybreak Saturday in the 40s to around 50.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
The axis of deeper moisture associated with the upper energy and associated warm and cold front will slowly approach through the day Saturday. Sources of guidance/ensembles suggest the leading edge of the deeper cloud cover and any rain is timed for very late Saturday afternoon and night. This suggests more periods of high clouds through the day with steady light south to southeast winds and highs in the 60s to around 70.

Showers move into our region from southwest to northeast through the night Saturday night and by daybreak Sunday many areas will see showers. Depending on the timing, the onset of showers in the Capital Region and points north and east may be after daybreak Sunday. Then, clouds and showers across the entire region Sunday, limiting warming. There could be a rumble of thunder but chances are low with a lack of instability. Highs mainly in the 50s Sunday.

Rain moves out Sunday night and there cold be a lingering early morning shower Monday. Then, weak cold advection begins with the exit of the upper system and cold front Monday. Highs Monday in the 70s with 60s higher terrain.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Dry weather continues Tuesday with highs in the 70s. Increasing clouds through the day, with around 70 higher terrain and near 80 mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.

By Wednesday through the rest of next week, split upper flow with northern stream upper energy slowly dropping out of Canada and a closed upper low slowly approaching from the northern and central plains. Confluent upper flow and associated moisture advection and low level jet forcing will result in showers and a possible rumble of thunder Tuesday night through Friday.

There will be some periods of dry weather but there is a lot of spread in sources of guidance as to the timing of embedded smaller upper impulses and associated focused moisture, low level forcing and areas of showers. Still, the general upper pattern should support unsettled weather. So, again, indicating chances for showers Tuesday night through Friday. The threat for severe weather and/or heavy rain looks limited due to the relatively weak upper dynamics and weak low level forcing.

Highs Wednesday in the 70s with 60s higher terrain. Highs Thursday in the 60s to around 70. Highs Friday in the 60s with near 70 mid Hudson Valley and NW CT and some 50s southern Adirondacks.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites through 06 UTC with light and variable winds. Southeasterly winds will develop after 06 UTC and some low stratus may redevelop but confidence is lower compared to previous nights. We only included TEMPO groups at PSF where confidence was a bit higher.

Any early stratus burns off by 12-14 UTC, VFR conditions return with mid and higher level clouds spilling over the terminals ahead of our next approaching disturbance.

Light and variable winds become southeasterly by or shortly after 06 UTC sustained around 5kts. South-southeasterly winds continue through the end of the TAF period becoming sustained around 5kts.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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New Baltimore
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Fri -- 12:35 AM EDT     4.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:00 AM EDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:05 PM EDT     5.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:32 PM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Castleton-on-Hudson
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Fri -- 12:52 AM EDT     4.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:27 AM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:22 PM EDT     5.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:59 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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