Monday, June21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ithaca, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:48PM Monday June 21, 2021 3:14 AM EDT (07:14 UTC) Moonrise 4:20PMMoonset 1:58AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202106210315;;584194 Fzus51 Kbuf 202033 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 433 Pm Edt Sun Jun 20 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-210315- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 433 Pm Edt Sun Jun 20 2021
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Showers and Thunderstorms likely late. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 64 degrees, and the central lake ontario buoy water temperature is 60 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ithaca, NY
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location: 42.45, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 210603 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 203 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. Hot and humid conditions today, along with an approaching strong cold front, will provide the fuel for scattered severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat, but large hail and locally heavy rainfall may also occur. Lingering showers exit Tuesday, with much cooler and drier air overtaking the region for midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. 1235 AM update . Instability aloft along with weak waves embedded within southwesterly flow, is still managing a few convective cells in the Southern Tier as well as Otsego County; even small hail was briefly evident via minor scatter spikes showing up on radar. This zone of isolated convection will gradually shift northward for the rest of overnight, into the Finger Lakes-NY Thruway Corridor. Most locations will not see anything but there will be still be a few cells. Meanwhile, patchy valley fog and low stratus will develop elsewhere, especially Twin Tiers. Main concern continues to be severe weather event anticipated for Monday afternoon as discussed below.

Previous discussion . The potential severe weather event for Monday afternoon is taking shape. We expect hot and humid conditions to develop by late morning, with CAPE values building to possibly more than 2000 j/kg during the late afternoon.

Bulk shear values will approach 30-35 knots, plenty high enough to support organized severe convection given the degree of instability. In addition, the 3km NAM projected helicity values between 170 and 225 over our northern forecast area, supporting rotating updrafts.

Monday looks to be a very active day especially from the mid- afternoon onwards. Some of these storms may become severe with damaging winds, large hail, and possibly even a tornado. Locally heavy rainfall will also be a concern. A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms remains from SPC, while a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall remains from WPC.

Any early morning convection is expected to lift out of the area by the mid-morning, leading to much of the area breaking out with some sunshine. With our region firmly in the warm sector and an approaching cold front from the west, this will allow the region to destabilize. In addition, lapse rates will be steepening and shear values will be in the 40-50kt range. Some helicity looks to be present as well, especially along and north of the NY Thruway corridor. PWATs look to approach 2 inches, although this has fortunately trended a bit downward compared to prior model cycles. The approaching cold front will act as the main lifting mechanism. This will all set the stage for thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon (mainly after 3PM) with some of these storms likely becoming severe. In addition, with the elevated PWATs, locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well.

The other story for Monday will be the hot and humid conditions. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. With dew points in the mid to upper 60s, heat indices may approach the mid 90s in some spots, especially in the valleys (this is close to Heat Advisory criteria in NY). Confidence was not high enough to issue any Heat Advisories yet, but did mention the heat in our HWO. Will let the midnight shift tonight take another look at the heat indices and decide if any Heat Advisories will be needed for Monday.

Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday night, but the threat for severe thunderstorms will be diminishing as the evening progresses. Main concern for Monday night is the possibility for continued locally heavy rainfall. Behind the cold front, temperatures will be dropping into the 50s for the majority of the area by late Monday night/early Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 200 PM Update .

Lagging H5 trof will be pushing into the Northeast on Tuesday. Forced ascent beneath jet entrance region, coupled with deep layer moisture, is expected to keep post surface frontal showers lingering across the bulk of our area during the morning hours. 12Z NAM and last night's EC would suggest showers lingering into most of the afternoon for the eastern half, with other guidance slightly more progressive and trending drier. NBM guidance suggests holding onto higher PoPs through 00Z Wednesday so will have a gradient of PoPs from nearly dry along the BUF CWA to chance-likely showers (some thunder) along the Catskills bordering NWS ALY.

High pressure then builds in Tuesday night and takes up a solid residence across New England and New York for Wednesday. Clearing sky and decoupling wind Tuesday night will allow for efficient radiational cooling within an already anomalously cool/dry air mass advecting 850 temps in the lower single digits into the area. Looking for surface temperatures to plummet into the 40s for most of the region with a shot at upper 30s in the normally coldest valleys and elevated plateaus. With this occurring in the wake of rain, valley fog is a pretty good bet in the predawn hours of Wednesday morning. Then, plenty of sunshine and unseasonably cool temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s will follow on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. 200 PM Update .

Strong western Atlantic ridging will be developing into Friday providing a block for high pressure to remain established across the Northeast. This should allow for a dry and gradually warming pattern through the end of the week across CNY and NEPA. Models suggest the blocking pattern breaks down early next weekend with a trof and complex frontal system approaching from the Upper Midwest. Increasing moisture along and ahead of the frontal system warrants an increase in PoPs from Saturday through Sunday. Models are in reasonable agreement on this idea for a moderate confidence threshold . however, there are hints that the Atlantic ridge may not break down as quickly (earlier runs suggested Friday would be showery), thus Saturday is the least confident day when introducing this next round of precipitation. Warm advection suggests we'll be back into the 80s for Friday and Saturday with clouds and rain chances possibly putting a limit on Sunday's high.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Active period anticipated with multiple thunderstorms in the region. First, small clusters of nocturnal thunderstorms will impact KITH around 06Z-08Z; and then KSYR 08Z-10Z. For KELM-KRME thunder is at least possible so monitor for amendments. KELM will probably also experience some valley fog near dawn due to moisture from earlier rainfall. Meanwhile, marine layer moisture will sneak across KAVP and briefly KBGM for a window of fuel alternate ceilings early this morning. Conditions improve to VFR as south-southwesterly winds pick up, but then scattered strong to severe gusty thunderstorms are expected this afternoon-early evening as a cold front runs into very warm and humid unstable air. Confidence is high enough to include in TAFs; timing may need to be narrowed or adjusted in coming updates. If a storm core goes directly over a terminal, hail could occur. Winds will veer westerly behind the storms in the evening, with minor ceiling restrictions forming overnight.

Outlook .

Late Monday night through Tuesday morning . Some rain showers with MVFR to fuel alternate ceilings redeveloping.

Tuesday afternoon through Friday . Mainly VFR, though valley fog possible late nights-early mornings at KELM.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . MDP NEAR TERM . BJG/DJP/MDP SHORT TERM . JAB LONG TERM . JAB AVIATION . MDP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 70 mi56 min SSE 8 G 11 71°F 1003.6 hPa65°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 81 mi74 min SSW 11 G 14 73°F 1004.4 hPa (-1.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 82 mi56 min 73°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY3 mi18 minSSE 610.00 miLight Rain69°F68°F96%1005.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KITH

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E4E4E3E43S7SW5W4S4S63SE3CalmSE3E3S5NE3E3SE3SE3S8SE6SE6
1 day agoSW3CalmCalmCalmW6W6W54NW10W5W8W10SW8SW9S9W11
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2 days agoE5E6E4SE6S7S8S9S8S8S11
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SW9S9CalmE5SE7S8S6SE5S9S7S6SE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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