Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ithaca, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:36PM Saturday November 28, 2020 11:46 AM EST (16:46 UTC) Moonrise 3:51PMMoonset 5:19AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202011281030;;509300 Fzus51 Kbuf 280549 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1249 Am Est Sat Nov 28 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-281030- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1249 Am Est Sat Nov 28 2020
Overnight..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain showers likely during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 47 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ithaca, NY
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location: 42.45, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 281136 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 636 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A pair of weak disturbances zips over the area today, with spotty showers mainly from the Twin Tiers and Catskills northward, during otherwise mainly dry conditions. Passing high pressure will result in the sky becoming mainly clear for tonight, followed by sunshine on Sunday. Mild and rainy conditions are forecast for Monday with a low pressure system.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. 230 AM Update . Other than spotty light rain showers from a pair of weak disturbances passing this morning through early afternoon, the remainder of the weekend will be rather quiet.

Generally speaking, a moderate-amplitude upper trough will swing through the region today. However, a closer look reveals within the trough are a pair of shortwaves embedded on either side of the apex of the trough. One of those waves is actually drifting through during the predawn hours and will exit Poconos-Catskills by 12Z; the other one will pass from west-to-east late morning through early afternoon. Each wave has limited moisture to work with; plenty of dry air above 10-12 kft agl. Thus the end results of these shortwaves will just be spotty showers, barely enough to wet the ground and occurring mainly from Twin Tiers- Catskills northward. A small addition of lake moisture could allow northern Oneida County to get closer to a tenth of an inch of rain. Behind the second shortwave, winds pick up out of the west-northwest around 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph. Highs will be right around climatology; in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

High pressure will spread from the Ohio Valley late today through the Midatlantic Coast tonight into Sunday. Southwesterly flow coming from that dry high will dominate our weather, clearing the sky tonight for all but northern Oneida County, followed by plenty of sunshine Sunday. Meanwhile, ridging aloft will result in some warm air advection. That will have little impact tonight since clearing sky will allow radiational cooling to send temperatures into the upper 20s-lower 30s. However, with sunshine Sunday, the moderated air mass will be realized in the form of highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Models typically fail to mix down enough dry air in this kind of set up, and so adjustments included going between 75th-90th percentiles for highs while also leaning hard on the Canadian Regional model for dewpoints which usually handles this situation better.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Low pressure across the Gulf Coast will track northeast into our region by late in the day Monday. Moisture will overrun and be lifted ahead of a warm frontal boundary to produce widespread rain throughout most of Monday. For several hours, it should be moderate to heavy. Ensemble guidance Shows a range of about one half to three quarters of an inch across most of the region. However, southeast flow should provide favorable upslope conditions for additional lift and slightly higher QPF heading toward Pike and Sullivan counties. A fair amount of ensemble guidance in these areas shows the potential for around an inch or slightly higher rainfall amounts. Overall, FFG is around two inches for a six hour period. With this being a quick hitting rain as well any flooding would be of the nuisance poor drainage flooding that is fairly typical.

Southerly flow ahead of the low pressure system will pump in warmer air as well. Temperatures should be steady as a result Sunday night around 40 then warm well into the 50's Monday. The low pressure system then begins to occlude by Monday night bringing in a rare cooler southwesterly flow into the region. Modeled soundings don't show winds getting to strong yet with top gusts to around 20 mph. Temperatures only fall back into the 40's Monday night. As the low pressure system enters the region Monday night a fairly pronounced dry slot moves through with the highest chances for lingering showers shifting up to the Thruway corridor.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The occluded low pressure system slows as it moves north of the region. Westerly flow will be slow to advect in additional cold air but it should be enough to keep temperatures steady or slowly fall a few degrees from the Monday night lows in the 40's. Enough cold air should work in by Tuesday night for rain showers to change to snow showers. With the low pressure system near and north of the Great Lakes, the highest concentrations of any showers will be across the Finger Lakes and NY Thruway corridor. Chances of snow showers look to continue into Wednesday based on the latest ensemble guidance with some lake moisture potentially entering the picture as well. Temperatures fall back into the 20's and 30's Tuesday night and Wednesday. Since the low pressure system is still close to region the potential for strong wind gusts will still be present.

High pressure is likely to build back in by Thursday providing a temporary break and possibly a little sun with seasonable temps in the 40's.

Uncertainty increases by Friday with quite a range of ensemble solutions. A mid-level disturbance should eject into the Southern Plains with the southern branch of a split flow pattern. This would typically to lead to a surface low track favorable for more of a wintry system up the east coast. However, the depth of cold air and another northern piece of energy tries to phase in may lead to another lake cutter with warmer temperatures. For now, rain and snow chances are included for later Friday that would extend into the weekend with considerable uncertainty for Friday and beyond at this time. Temperatures remain forecasted close to the ensemble mean in the 30's and 40's.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A pair of weak disturbances will finish passing across the terminals this morning through midday, followed by a breaking up and lifting a clouds this afternoon; then clearing tonight as high pressure starts to build. Until then, a deck of clouds primarily between 2-4 kft agl will persist for the NY terminals, with spotty light rain showers at times. KAVP VFR with mainly a 4-5 kft deck. Initial light variable to west- southwest wind will veer west-northwest 8-12 knots behind the disturbances late morning through afternoon before slackening and backing this evening/overnight.

Outlook .

Sunday through Sunday night . VFR.

Monday . Strong low pressure moves over the region with rain, restrictions, and possible southeasterly low level wind shear.

Monday night through Tuesday . Occasional restrictions with scattered rain showers, mixing with snow Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday night through Wednesday . Possible restrictions, especially KSYR-KRME, from lake effect snow showers. VFR KAVP.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . MDP NEAR TERM . MDP SHORT TERM . MWG LONG TERM . MWG AVIATION . MDP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 70 mi47 min WNW 24 G 29 41°F 1015.6 hPa (+1.8)35°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 81 mi47 min WNW 15 G 20 43°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 82 mi47 min 43°F 1015.7 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY3 mi51 minWNW 1110.00 miOvercast41°F36°F82%1016.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KITH

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5SW7W4W8W6SW4CalmW3W5W5NW4CalmW5CalmW5CalmCalmNW5NW6NW5SW3W5W12W11
1 day agoS6SW7SW8W10W9W5W5SW5SW6SW4W8W5W5W5W4NW5W6W6NW5CalmSE3W7SW4SW5
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.