Wednesday, January27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Joseph, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 5:00PM Wednesday January 27, 2021 8:55 PM CST (02:55 UTC) Moonrise 4:43PMMoonset 7:35AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ878 Expires:202101281015;;602536 Fzus63 Kmkx 280214 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 814 Pm Cst Wed Jan 27 2021 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. High pressure of 30.7 inches over manitoba and western ontario will slowly drop south into the upper mississippi valley and into the great lakes region over the next few days. Modest north winds and waves over lake michigan will continue to gradually diminish as Thursday approaches. Brisk southeast winds backing northeasterly are then expected this weekend as low pressure passes to the south. High waves will build over the southern half of the lake during this time. && lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-281015- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 814 pm cst Wed jan 27 2021 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of tonight..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of snow. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Slight chance of snow in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Saturday night..East winds to 30 kt. Snow likely. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Sunday..East winds to 30 kt becoming northeast 15 to 25 kt. Chance of snow. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Monday..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
LMZ878


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Joseph, MI
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location: 42.45, -86.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 272319 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 619 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 308 AM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

A large high pressure area will bring a cold north flow accompanied by light lake effect snow inland south of Lake Michigan into Thursday; otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected. Highs will be from 25 to 30. Lows the next 3 nights will be mainly in the teens. Dry conditions are expected Friday before the next system brings accumulating snow this weekend.

SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Friday night) Issued at 224 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

Main focus in the short term will be LES potential in far NW tonight . otherwise quiet weather remainder of the CWA through the period. Forecast soundings still indicating small window tonight of unidirectional N/NW flow below 5Kft inversion in support of LES band shifting into our far NW and favoring a single band setup. HREF members also indicating this to one degree or another and HREF mean has narrow area of 2 inch accumulation. So with marginal delta-T and shallow equilibrium level not expecting much higher accumulations and current forecast seems on track for this. Flow then becomes more NW Thursday morning along with shallow inversion heights and more large scale subsidence so expect a fairly quick dissipation to any lingering LES. Surface high pressure then builds into the region providing fair weather through Friday with seasonably cool temps . highs generally 25-30F and lows in the mid-teens.

LONG TERM. (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 224 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021 Focus in the long term remains on weekend system associated with upper trough coming onshore in the western US Friday. Deterministic models continuing trend of developing this system into a closed low over the mid-MS valley Saturday night . with varying timing/placement differences noted. System will initially tap into good moisture transport from the gulf with strong ascent along the 295K surface streaming into our area ahead of this system Saturday night. Main difference from yesterdays run is less of a negative tilt in the upper trough and more of an eastward translation to a mid-Atlantic storm by the end of the weekend. Still a really favorable window presents itself for our area centered around the 06Z Sunday timeframe where the afore-mentioned conditions align over mid-level deformation zone and 100-150m 500mb height falls and good overlap of DGZ and omega in the 600-500mb layer. Southern CWA will likely see some precip type issues as low level WAA does nudge that way and model blend has 50/50 rain vs snow probabilities. Northern 2/3 thirds should initially see mostly snow and inclined to place confidence close to latest blend guidance with 80 percent prob of greater than 2 inches but still low confidence . less than 30 percent . of exceeding 4 . seems reasonable message at this time at least until system comes onshore. Possible LES in the wake of this system on Monday but not much in the way of cold air behind this and other parameters less than ideal so not expecting much more than flurries/light snow showers. High Pressure then builds into the region providing dry forecast remainder of the period with seasonable temperatures.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued at 613 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

Lake plume and times of snow showers/flurries over nw IN this evening may eventually swing into KSBN tonight into Thursday morning. This will likely result in variable flight conditions with high MVFR to low VFR clouds, and the potential for brief IFR/MVFR vis restrictions with any snow showers. Better shsn coverage and accum chances should remain just west of KSBN. VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail at FWA into maybe the end of the period when lake clouds are pushed eastward. Not confident on MVFR ceilings, but did go down to 3000 ft at 18Z. Winds will be northerly tonight, then shift to the northwest Thursday afternoon.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for LMZ043-046.



SYNOPSIS . Skipper SHORT TERM . JAL LONG TERM . JAL AVIATION . Steinwedel/Cobb

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook . Twitter . and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 34 mi55 min N 18 G 22 29°F 1029.5 hPa (+2.1)
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 34 mi55 min 8 G 9.9 25°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 44 mi55 min NNE 11 G 15 24°F 33°F1029.1 hPa (+1.5)16°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 47 mi115 min NNW 11 G 16 17°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 48 mi55 min NW 9.9 G 13 17°F 1031.8 hPa (+2.3)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 50 mi55 min NNW 23 G 25 22°F 17°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI34 mi62 minENE 8 G 152.50 miLight Snow26°F20°F78%1030.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBEH

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NE745NE3E5NE3E4E5E8CalmE3E43E6E6E6N7N7
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1 day agoE11
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2 days agoS4SE3E3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E6E75E7NE7E10E9
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.