AVIATION

A pattern of persistence featuring light southeast flow directing lake moisture into the base of a nocturnal inversion layer again points to a meaningful response in terms of fog development overnight. Forecast will continue to lean into a similar trend noted the previous night, lending to a window for LIFR visibility restrictions to emerge during the early morning hours at DTW/YIP and PTK. Some degree of fog development again plausible into FNT as well, but with confidence in a period of dense fog much lower attm.
Shallow fog mixes out quickly once again, yielding mostly clear skies for Thursday.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms are forecast through the TAF period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate in ceilings/visibilities aob 200 feet and/or 1/2 SM 9-13z Thursday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 343 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

DISCUSSION...

Shortwave tracking across northern lower this afternoon will continue to get pulled off to the NE as the low level jet feeding into it lifts off into Ontario and Quebec. Ridging and a wealth of dry air from the surface up to 12kft will keep the local area dry with only a few clouds passing through the afternoon mainly north of I69. Attention tonight turns to potential for shallow dense fog development. Persistence forecasting with the ridge in place positioned off to the east resulting in light easterly flow tonight.
With dewpoints already in the mid-upper 50s and moisture advection off the lakes, expectations are for another round of fog. Similar coverage to this morning with the eastern CWA getting the brunt of the denser fog. Will monitor obs for the possibility of a Dense Fog Advisory later.

Weather pattern stays quiet for the rest of the week. Upper level ridge builds overhead while the next trough deepens over the Rockies. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over Ontario builds back down into the region behind the exiting shortwave on its way to New England. This ridge will move very little through the rest of the week and weekend while 500mb heights increase to 590dam or greater.
The resultant airmass will keep temperatures steady with highs in the low-mid 80s and lows around 60. The remnants of Hurricane Francine which is currently making landfall in southern Louisiana will drift northward up the Mississippi before stalling over northern Arkansas Friday as it then runs up against the strong ridge centered over the Great Lakes. Though we may see some high clouds shedding off the stalled circulation, models have held firm with no precipitation extending north far enough to reach MI. The approaching longwave trough will wick some of the shearing system northward through the weekend but looks to stay west of the area mostly over WI/MN. Next chance of rain won't come til next week when the ridge slides east and another possible tropical system gets pulled up and around the ridge from the Carolinas and up through the Great Lakes.

MARINE...

A weak trough riding atop the larger region of high pressure pushes east into Canada by this evening ending any further shower chances over Lake Huron. Otherwise, this high remains in place across the central Great Lakes for the remainder of the work week maintaining lighter winds and dry conditions. Remnants of Hurricane Francine still looking to stall well south of the region this weekend likely resulting in a continuation of dry weather and sub 20kt winds locally.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.