Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 8:32PM Saturday August 17, 2019 7:34 PM EDT (23:34 UTC) Moonrise 8:54PMMoonset 7:28AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 814 Pm Edt Mon Aug 12 2019
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters... The areas affected include... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... At 813 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm west of metro beach metropark marina to 8 nm north of st. Clair shores to mt clemens harbor of refuge, moving east at 10 knots. Strong Thunderstorms will be near, st clair flats old channel light around 845 pm edt. St. Clair shores around 850 pm edt. Mt clemens harbor of refuge and metro beach metropark marina around 915 pm edt. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, lightning strikes, and heavy downpours. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4255 8258 4255 8259 4256 8264 4245 8275 4251 8291 4254 8291 4259 8285 4262 8284 4261 8275 4257 8258
LCZ422 Expires:201908130115;;542988 FZUS73 KDTX 130014 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 814 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019 LCZ422-460-130115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI
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location: 42.46, -82.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 172324
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
724 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019

Aviation
Attention over the first few hours of the forecast is on a weak
system current passing over southern lake mi. Much of the hires
resolution guidance has been over doing the developing convection
tied to this feature thus far with little to no development showing
up on radar at this point. Satellite shows some enhancement to the
cloud field so there is still potential for things to come together
by the time it reaches SE mi. Will lean more toward showers and
vicinity TS for the time being to give it some credit for the
potential going forward. Area should remain dry early Sunday morning
into the afternoon before a stronger system looks to produce
widespread thunderstorm activity across lower mi.

For dtw... Confidence is decreasing for thunderstorm activity for the
first few hours of the forecast. Activity between dtw and chicago is
much weaker than anticipated suggested by earlier guidance. Still a
shot at some precipitation between 00-04z but thunder chances seem
lower so will hold it out at this point to see if anything can get
going. Higher confidence in storms Sunday afternoon and evening with
the next system that sweeps through.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* low for ceilings AOB 5k ft late tonight into Sunday morning.

* low for thunderstorms between 00z to 06z. Moderate Sunday after
18z.

Prev discussion
Issued at 352 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019
discussion...

a subsidence bubble bringing capping along with some dry air has
effectively prevented much precipitation from developing across
southeast lower michigan through the early afternoon. A few high
clouds with scattered CU is allowing for a good amount of sunshine,
which has resulted in temperatures increasing into the low to mid
80s. Main adjustment for today has been to increase pops and qpf
slightly and expand coverage northward into the m-59 corridor for
this evening. Scattered convection early this afternoon is
developing in response to a shortwaves moving along the frontal
boundary to the south. Later day convection will come from a mcv
taking shape across southern lake michigan and eventually moving
across lower michigan. These will bring convection along and south of
the i-94 corridor over the next few hours with activity developing moving
across the m-59 area closer to the 6-8 pm time frame. Greater severe
potential resides south of the michigan border. However, mlcape
values of around 500-1000 j kg with 0-6 bulk shear values of 20-30
kts and steep low level lapse rates will bring the possibility of
strong storms with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall across
portions of the southern cwa. Loss of daytime heating and weaker mid
level lapse will decrease thunderstorm potential into tonight as
activity moves out of the area by around 2 am.

Longer wave trough axis will move across the northern plains tonight
as a deep low pressure system rotates across central canada. A
nocturnal MCS is forecast to move across the upper midwest into the
western great lakes region tonight supported by a strengthening low
level jet at the base of this trough. Remnants of this system are
expected to generate a mcv(s) multiple shortwave impulses that are
forecast to move across lower michigan tomorrow. Ahead of this
system will be increased southwesterly flow advecting greater
moisture into the area. A conditional severe risk will be present
for tomorrow as a moderately unstable airmass sets up with 0 to 6 km
shear of at least 30-40 knots supporting this risk. Still some
uncertainly with how early day convection and cloud cover will limit
instability later in the day. If early day convection dissipates
across lake michigan or western part of the state, this will lead to
a greater potential for severe weather across southeast michigan
during the late afternoon early evening time frame. Strong low level
flow with the negatively tilting trough axis will make damaging
winds the main threat with large hail and locally heavy rainfall
also possible. A well mixed boundary layer tapping into strong
southwest flow aloft will also bring some windy conditions with
gusts of 20-30 mph kicking in by early afternoon. Convection will
push east of michigan by around midnight tomorrow night as the
trough axis pivots into the eastern great lakes.

High pressure slides into the region on Monday with a weakening
surface front helping push the instability axis across far lower
michigan. This will limit precipitation potential to the i-94
corridor and south. The lack of cold air advection will keep high
temperatures for Monday in the 80s for much of the area. The
exception will be in the thumb where temperatures along the thumb
shoreline will be in the mid upper 70s.

Pseudo zonal flow over the northern conus, with 588 dam heights over
southern lower michigan on Tuesday, leading to another very warm
day (upper 80s). The upper level flow will then buckle, with a
seasonable strong upper level trough cold pool taking residence over
the great lakes region by Thursday morning, sending 850 mb temps
into the single numbers.

Sprawling high pressure (1022+ mb) will build in for Thursday-
Friday, and likely last through much of the weekend, supporting dry
and pleasant temperatures for august, but a bit
cool below normal on the mins (40s not out of the question for
normally colder locations Friday morning).

Toughest part of the extended forecast remains in the Tuesday
evening-Wednesday morning time frame with the frontal passage, as
12z models (euro canadian icon) have all trended drier. Two reasons,
one there looks to be a thunderstorm complex developing over iowa on
Tuesday, disrupting moisture transport into our area. Second, warm
mid levels ahead of the front (10 c at 700 mb) could be sufficient
to provide a cap, and a dry limited convection frontal passage is on
the table. Thus, no reason to deviate from the blended low chance
pops in the 18z Tuesday-18z Wednesday time frame at this time.

Marine...

weak southwest flow will continue tonight. There is a chance of
thunderstorms with a weak system for the southern lakes region.

South-southwest winds increase on Sunday afternoon as a low pressure
system lifts into the western and northern great lakes. This system
will bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening, with locally higher wind and waves to
be expected in any thunderstorm activity. The cold front will push
through lower michigan before weakening on top of the mi oh in
border region. High pressure fills back in and leading to lighter
wind and waves on Monday and Tuesday. However, that stalled frontal
boundary may lead to additional shower thunderstorm activity over
lake erie and lake st. Clair.

Hydrology...

scattered thunderstorms this evening and during the early overnight
hours will be developing on the next moisture surge. Precipitable
water in excess of 1.75 will reach into metro detroit by midnight.

While storm motion will be east-northeast around 30 mph, new
convection will develop on the upwind side of ongoing convection
which could lead to some short-fused training. Isolated locations
across metro detroit south to the ohio border could get in excess of
an inch of rain with the thunderstorm activity tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely again on Sunday
afternoon and evening as a low pressure system tracks through the
great lakes. The air mass over the region will be characterized by
dew points near 70 degrees and precipitable water values of 1.50 to
1.75 inches. This will likely result in heavy downpours within any
convective activity. Activity is likely to have forward propagation
with good cold pools developing leading to storm movement at least
40 mph. Basin-average rainfall totals of 0.25 to 0.50 inches look to
be the most likely. Isolated higher totals will be limited to any
location that see repeated thunderstorms.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Drk
discussion... Aa sf
marine... ... .Rbp
hydrology... .Rbp
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45147 - Lake St Clair 2 mi35 min Calm 80°F 76°F1 ft1011.3 hPa (-1.4)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 11 mi35 min E 8 G 11 78°F 1011.9 hPa (-1.0)
AGCM4 13 mi53 min 80°F 74°F1012.1 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 38 mi53 min 84°F 1011.6 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 40 mi53 min SW 5.1 G 8 83°F 1011.6 hPa57°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI14 mi2.7 hrsWNW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F59°F42%1012.2 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI19 mi2.7 hrsWSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F54°F35%1012.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S8S6S6SE7S6S7S7CalmS4SW5S4SW7SW9W8SW6W9SW6SW7
G19
W9SW8W6CalmE8
1 day agoN6NE5N3N4----------------N4N4NE3NE3SE5SE4S9SE7SE9SE11SE11SE13
2 days agoNE11NE9N7N6N6N7NE10NE5NE8N4NE7E8E9E9E6E6E5E5E6E7E8E7E3E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.