Wednesday, January29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 5:42PM Wednesday January 29, 2020 7:28 AM EST (12:28 UTC) Moonrise 10:27AMMoonset 10:24PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0067.000000t0000z-191230t1300z/ 754 Am Est Mon Dec 30 2019
.the special marine warning will expire at 800 am est... The affected areas were... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... The showers have moved out of the area. Lat...lon 4289 8247 4276 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4238 8282 4236 8286 4239 8294 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4265 8255 4276 8251 4289 8252 4302 8244 4297 8241 time...mot...loc 1254z 216deg 43kt 4352 8232 4307 8173
LCZ422 Expires:201912301304;;156663 FZUS73 KDTX 301254 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 754 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 LCZ422-460-301304-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI
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location: 42.46, -82.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 291138 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 638 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

AVIATION.

Low level northeast flow will solidify the existing moist layer that lingers beneath a strong inversion through the taf period. This ensures extensive low stratus holds firm during this time. Some fluctutation in ceiling heights will occur at times, but generally hovering within MVFR restrictions.

For DTW . Moisture trapped under a deep subsidence inversion will sustain stratus through tonight with high confidence.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 357 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

DISCUSSION .

A midlevel shortwave ridge will build in through the course of the day as yesterday's weak wave departs over the Atlantic. Modest subsidence will accompany this feature while anticyclonic flow trajectories become established locally with surface high pressure building into eastern Ontario/Quebec. The subsidence will maintain the persistent inversion around 850mb, but will not be strong enough to dissipate the low stratus deck that has plagued the region since last Friday. Low-level moisture trapped beneath the inversion will receive a slight enhancement through the day as light northeast wind allows a mostly unfrozen Lake Huron to add its contribution. Moisture depth remains limited thanks to the drying midlevels and precipitation is not likely today, though a few brief flurries may accompany the northeast wind shift this morning across the eastern Thumb. Highs today perhaps a degree or two lower than Tuesday given slightly lower 925mb temps in place. Diurnal trend in temps remains muted with abundant cloud cover in place - lows in the 20s tonight.

Forecast into Thursday and Friday is largely persistence based as the resident air mass undergoes little change with diffuse high pressure across the region and the jet stream displaced to our south. Some weakening shortwave energy will pass overhead early on Thursday, but with limited moisture supply and disorganized forcing the result will be nothing more than an increase in mid and high clouds as the column fails to achieve deep-layer saturation. Highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s will continue through the remainder of the week with little change in overall cloud cover.

Potential for more active weather then increases for the weekend as a clipper system dives into the region Saturday and we briefly reside under the left exit region of the associated jet streak. Many moving parts remain in play and uncertainty is high in the timing and track of the upper wave. However, impacts do look relatively limited at this time as moisture quality will be lacking and temperatures will likely be above freezing. Longwave ridging then sets up across the central CONUS for the early part of next week with a much warmer air mass set to push in from the west. Highs in the 40s certainly attainable for Monday, possibly making a run at 50 degrees near the Ohio border.

MARINE .

Light northeast flow of 10 to 15 knots today as high pressure builds into Quebec during the day. Even with the onshore flow, waves should remain below 4 feet.

Light and variable winds on Thursday will become light southwest on Friday as a weak cold front passes through on Saturday. Stronger southwest winds (20+ knots) appear possible early next week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . TF MARINE . SF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 11 mi28 min ENE 4.1 G 8.9 29°F 1023 hPa (+1.7)
AGCM4 13 mi58 min 29°F 34°F1021.5 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 38 mi58 min 30°F 1021.1 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 40 mi58 min NW 5.1 G 7 29°F 1021 hPa21°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI14 mi92 minN 010.00 miOvercast29°F25°F86%1022.5 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI19 mi35 minNNE 310.00 miOvercast29°F21°F75%1023.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW4NW4NW5N5NW3NW5NW8N7NW8N7N6N7N5N3NE4N7N8NE7N4NW4CalmCalmN5
1 day agoNW5NW4NW7N9NW7N8NW5N7NW7NW6NW6W4W4W5W6NW3NW4NW4NW6NW3W4W6W6NW5
2 days agoSW7SW8SW10SW10SW12SW10SW10W11W9W8
G16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.