Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 8:50 PM Moonrise 2:05 PM   Moonset 2:31 AM

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LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0007.000000t0000z-240508t0215z/ 1005 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . St. Clair river - .
the Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters.
&&
lat - .lon 4267 8251 4262 8251 4255 8258 4255 8261 4265 8259 4270 8262 4270 8261 4266 8259 4264 8256 4265 8255 4276 8251 4282 8251 4282 8248 4276 8247 time - .mot - .loc 0201z 248deg 49kt 4275 8219

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 170724 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 324 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers with some isolated thunderstorms will continue this morning, exiting east of the state by the late morning hours.

- There is a chance (40-45%) for renewed shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Highly localized wind gusts around 45-50 mph will be possible with any stronger thunderstorms

- Very warm this weekend through early next week. Increased chances for thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

DISCUSSION

A plume of enhanced deep layer moisture (PW values between 1.15 to 1.35") continues to build in across SE MI through the morning hours downstream of an upper-level trough, which will maintain scattered to numerous showers this morning, generally outside of the Tri- Cities. Some rumbles of thunder remain possible given the modest mid-level lapse rates and elevated instability.

Surface instability will then quickly build in by the late morning hours in the wake of the trough, fueled by diurnally heating. A surface boundary is expected to stall out across SE MI this afternoon, extending from around Bad Axe to Adrian (or slightly east), which will capitalize on the building instability and will be the focal point for renewed showers and thunderstorm activity. The kinematics are extremely poor for sustained thunderstorm activity with weak 1- 3/1-6km shear, thus convective mode will be for pulse thunderstorms. However, very steep 0-3 km lapse rates near 9C/km and DCAPE values to 800 J/kg do support the potential for highly localized wind gusts up to 45-50 mph with thunderstorm development.
This is further supported by the large amount of dry air located with the mid to upper-levels of the atmosphere which can be entrained to enhance evaporative cooling...But on the contrary, this can also be a negative factor which may inhibit convective cloud depths. Sub- severe hail will also be possible given the favorable dry mid- levels. Expansion of shower and thunderstorms east of the initial surface convergence boundary will be possible with the very slow meandering of the boundary and along outflows. Convective coverage and intensity will wane after sunset with the loss of instability.
Timing for this shower and thunderstorm activity will be favored between 17Z to 01Z Sat (1 PM EDT - 9 PM EDT). Considering this morning's activity and additional chances this afternoon, the very light boundary layer winds and clear cloud trends overnight could afford areas of fog through tomorrow morning.

Multiple upper-level waves are expected to build in across the northern Plains through the weekend and into early next week while a secondary upper-level trough builds in through the Tennessee Valley.
This will enhance shortwave ridging across the Great Lakes and will pool in warm air from the continental SW into Michigan, characterized by h850 values between 14-16C. This brings high confidence to see increasing temperature trends leading into early next week, with temperature highs firmly breaking 80 degrees by Sunday. This setup will also bring limited chances for precipitation through early next week given weak synoptic forcing. A slight chance (<15%) for diurnally fueled showers will hold for Saturday, but weak instability and poor shear makes this unlikely. An additional low end (15%) chance holds Sunday evening and again Monday afternoon and evening as shortwaves ripples through.

The higher confidence rain/thunderstorm setup will enter within the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame once a stronger upper-level trough builds in across the pacific west, which will help usher in much better moisture downstream across the Midwest and Great Lakes. A potent mid-level wave derived around Baja California is also projected to path near the Texas Panhandle which will strengthen a weak surface low and drive it northeast into the western Midwest or up towards the northern Great Lakes. Still being out many days from this, there is uncertainty regarding potential phasing of these two systems, however, at this time there is excellent agreement between the EPS and NAEFS regarding cyclone location holding over or northwest of the cwa, bringing moderate confidence for a more active period by the midweek. The eventually passage of the low pressure system will draw a cold front across the state, bringing cooler temperatures by the mid to late week (most likely Wed-Thu period).

MARINE

Scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms will cross the central Great Lakes this morning as a weakening frontal boundary works eastward through the region. Isolated showers/storms may persist into this evening but the bulk of the activity is likely to occur before noon. Winds will remain light, generally 10 knots or less, and predominantly from the south or southeast before backing to the east tonight as weak high pressure builds in. Fog, possibly dense at times, will be possible Saturday given the lighter winds and elevated surface moisture. Light winds and mainly dry conditions persist through the weekend with a weak cold front moving through on Sunday possibly bringing some more showers. Potential for more unsettled conditions Monday night into Tuesday as a stronger disturbance tracks into the vicinity. This system will likely bring slightly stronger southerly winds as well as showers and thunderstorms.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1139 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

AVIATION...

Increasing lower VFR cigs in the 5-10kft range will occur into the overnight with eventual scattered showers (and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two) late tonight into early Friday morning. By Friday morning, MVFR cigs will be more likely even as showers move east of the region. Additional showers/isolated thunderstorms will be possible late in the day as well (20z-02z). Light southeast to south flow will veer to southwest Friday and then become light and variable Friday night.

For DTW/D21 Convection... An isolated thunderstorm is possible within a broader area of showers late tonight. The storms will be elevated and weak but capable of a brief lower visibility downpour through Friday morning. A second window for a thunderstorm or two will occur 21z-01z Friday afternoon/evening. Again, locally heavy downpours will be the main concern (and the exception).

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and Friday morning.

* Low for thunderstorms late tonight into early Friday morning and then again by late Friday afternoon/early evening.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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