Tuesday, July23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop Harbor, IL

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:33AMSunset 8:22PM Tuesday July 23, 2019 8:30 AM CDT (13:30 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 11:55AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 708 Am Cdt Tue Jul 23 2019
Today..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the morning, then veering north early in the afternoon veering northeast late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing northwest after midnight. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing southeast late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots veering southwest early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ646 Expires:201907231600;;507092 FZUS53 KMKX 231208 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 708 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-231600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop Harbor village, IL
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location: 42.47, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 231107
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
607 am cdt Tue jul 23 2019

Short term
225 am cdt
through tonight...

to have back-to-back no chance of precipitation days with
pleasant temperatures remains elusive, as today there will be a
chance for isolated showers and storms this afternoon through mid
evening. Overall confidence is fairly high that any coverage will
be minimal. The severe threat with any storms that do develop is
low but could get a couple gustier cells in the wisconsin to
northern illinois region. Otherwise highs will near 80 today, just
a few degrees shy of normal.

Early this morning finds the area east of a large 1025 mb high
over the central plains, a pattern supportive of cool and dry
advection that has resulted in mid 50s temperatures in numerous
outlying locations. As for the mid to upper troposphere, it is
not as quiet, at least upstream, with two pronounced circulations
dropping south-southeast into the great lakes. The first of these
will pass over michigan this morning, while the second one will
track slightly further west and graze the area later this
afternoon into early to mid evening. The 700 mb temperatures will
be reinforced cooler to around 0c with this second wave. Both the
forcing for ascent and this mid-level cooling will be there to
support updraft development where there is any low-level
convergence. Synoptically there is little, but the afternoon lake
breeze in far northeast illinois will be one today. Another will
be a subtle surface trough, almost more on the mesoscale, dropping
southward with the second wave into far northern illinois early
this evening or so.

The lake breeze is anticipated to develop early this afternoon and
not race inland in illinois given ambient north-northwest winds
of 10-15 mph gusting 20 mph. With highs closing in on 80 and dew
points in the upper 50s, rap and NAM forecast soundings just reach
their convective temperature with very narrow, elongated cape
profiles thanks to fairly dry low-levels. This area and downstream
drifting to the south-southeast near the il in state line may see
a few afternoon cells pop. A majority of cams try to show at least
a couple cells, although some are overdone on moisture. By later
afternoon, the second short wave and its low-level trough focus
will approach. In wisconsin, there is likely to be isolated to
scattered convection with this second wave, and some of this will
at least drift close to the state line by 6-7 p.M. And maybe into
northern illinois. With inverted-v type soundings and
unidirectional cloud-layer flow, there will be enough momentum
for some cells to have some modest downdrafts and outflows, again
a little more favored in wisconsin than in our cwa.

Any activity should dwindle quickly after sunset. Tonight will
again see lows in the 50s in outlying locations and lower to mid
60s in the heart of the chicago metro.

Mtf

Long term
213 am cdt
Wednesday through Monday...

generally, a quiet period of weather is expected first several days
of the long term forecast period as the surface high pressure
spreads across the region. However, a weak shortwave dropping
through the nwly flow aloft on Wednesday afternoon may bring a
slight chance for some showers and thunderstorms near the il wi
border. Much of the guidance is at least hinting at the chance for
some pcpn, though the GFS is likely generating too much qpf, the
upper forcing from the shortwave may at least generate some
scattered showers or thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon
hours. Otherwise, conditions should remain dry, with a general
warming trend through the weekend. High should start out the period
in the lower 80s on Wednesday, though a lake breeze developing in
the afternoon should limit lake front locations to the middle 70s.

By Thursday and through the weekend, swly low level flow should be
strong enough to allow warmer air to reach the lake front. Highs
should be back in the middle 80s by Thursday and the upper 80s to
low 90s for Friday and through the weekend. The next significant
chance for any pcpn will likely not be until Sunday night or Monday
as a surface trough cold front approaches the region.

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

for the chicago area aviation forecast today, concerns are:
- potential for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
mid-afternoon through mid-evening
- wind shift to northeast associated with a lake breeze this
afternoon
north-northwest wind speeds will increase through this morning
with gusts in the mid teens by late morning and sporadically
upper teens possible into early afternoon. The near north
direction of the wind by early afternoon will allow a lake breeze
to develop and confidence in this reaching ord and mdw is medium-
high. The specific timing is low-medium, although 20z-22z seems
to be a consistent overlap in current guidance. Winds will turn
back to the northwest but light at some point this evening.

This lake breeze boundary may serve as a focus for isolated
showers and possibly storms by 19z. Better potential for isolated
to scattered showers and storms will be over wisconsin associated
with an upper disturbance during the afternoon. That disturbance
will move southward and at least graze the area late afternoon and
early evening. While a thunderstorm chance at area airports, it is
low confidence and there's a little more confidence that there
will be spotty showers around, so felt a vcsh was the better
forecast message.

Mtf

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45187 3 mi31 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 71°F 67°F1 ft
45186 7 mi31 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 67°F 67°F1 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi31 min W 8 G 11 66°F 1019.3 hPa (+0.7)
45174 25 mi21 min NW 7.8 G 12 67°F2 ft1018.3 hPa
FSTI2 35 mi91 min NW 11 68°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 40 mi31 min NW 12 G 13 68°F 58°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 40 mi21 min WNW 12 G 14 67°F
OKSI2 40 mi91 min N 1.9 G 4.1 71°F
45177 41 mi151 min 69°F1 ft
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi31 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 67°F 1019.6 hPa61°F
45013 44 mi31 min W 9.7 G 14 65°F 64°F1 ft1019.6 hPa
CNII2 44 mi16 min NW 6 G 8.9 71°F 54°F
JAKI2 49 mi91 min NW 2.9 G 7 70°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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N12
G18
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N14
G21
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N4
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N3
G6
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G12
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S10
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SW7
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G17
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G19
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G17
SW6
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N14
G25
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SE7
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G8
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G9
SW1
G4
S1
NW6
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G16
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G9
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G8
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G8
NE5
G9
N4

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL4 mi36 minNW 410.00 miFair66°F57°F73%1018.9 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI10 mi38 minW 510.00 miFair66°F60°F81%1019.7 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi38 minW 610.00 miFair66°F57°F73%1019.7 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8NE11
G20
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N14
G20
NE7
G17
NE10
G22
NE12
G20
NE10NE10
G17
NE9NE6N3CalmCalmW4Calm3W3NW4NW5NW5NW4NW4NW4
1 day agoN6NE7E4NE9N10
G16
N11
G21
N9
G19
NE7N9
G16
NE8
G17
N6NE7N7N7N5N4N5N5N7N7
G14
N9N7
G17
N86
2 days agoS13S12SW13SW12
G20
SW14
G19
SW13
G20
NE17
G29
NE8
G20
3E3S8SW7Calm3CalmNE12
G18
N7NE8N5NE6NE9
G15
N4CalmNE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.