Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop Harbor, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 6:11PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 6:02 AM CDT (11:02 UTC) Moonrise 7:28PMMoonset 8:35AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 506 Am Cdt Tue Oct 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..South wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots late in the morning, then becoming 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots after midnight, then veering northwest with gusts to around 35 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots rising to up to 30 knots late in the morning, then easing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 knots. Slight chance of showers through the day. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
LMZ646 Expires:201910151600;;738896 FZUS53 KMKX 151006 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 506 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-151600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop Harbor village, IL
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location: 42.47, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 150845
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
345 am cdt Tue oct 15 2019

Short term
334 am cdt
through Wednesday...

meteorologically pretty fascinating this morning watching all of
the pieces of today's weather coming together on goes-16 imagery.

Goes derived total precipitable water (tpw) imagery shows a
narrow plume of pwats of nearly an inch advecting north across mo
into eastern ia. Meanwhile, GOES nighttime microphysics rgb
imagery shows a plume of stratus both developing and advecting
north, closely corresponding to where GOES tpw imagery shows the
plume of moisture streaming north. Meanwhile, the surging cold
front can also be clearly seen on the same GOES nighttime
microphysics rgb imagery, as well as the mid-upper level
circulation associated with the vigorous shortwave trough digging
southeastward across the northern plains.

As the upper trough closed mid-upper level low pivot southeastward
into the western great lakes region by tonight, the cold front and
and strong ascent will begin to encounter the gradually increasing
moisture. Very steep mid-level lapse rates associated with
elevated mixed-layer advecting east and wrapping into this
circulation will result in strong capping for surface based
convection, however, given the forcing and very steep lapse rates,
wouldn't be hard to envision scenario where elevated scattered
showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm develop. First, with
warm advection this morning, then with the approach of the forcing
associated with the upper trough this afternoon. The best precip
chances will likely exist over our eastern cwa, where there will
be most opportunity for moisture to advect northward prior to the
arrival of the trough.

Surface cold front will move across the area late this afternoon
into early this evening. Fairly strong cold air advection will
keep the low level lapse steep, allowing for stronger winds to mix
to the sfc in gusts through the night tonight. The strong winds
will begin to slowly ease Wednesday afternoon and more quickly
subside sunset Wednesday evening. Extensive cold air stratus strato-
cumulus deck should rotate into the area tonight and probably hold
strong through Wednesday as low level moisture become trapped
beneath sharp frontal inversion. This will limit the diurnal temp
range and have aimed toward the low end of guidance for high temps
Wednesday, which may struggle to reach 50f in many areas.

- izzi

Long term
334 am cdt
Wednesday night through Monday...

no big changes to medium range for the long range period. Today's
trough will pull out later this week with rising heights aloft
followed by low level warm air advection and a moderating trend in
temperatures late in the week into the weekend. Long wave trough
is forecast to become established over the western u.S. Over the
weekend with pretty good agreement in a lead shortwave ejecting
out and affecting the area with a chance of showers over the
weekend. This lead shortwave will help with the northward
transport of gulf of mexico moisture and set the stage for a
reservoir of ample moisture available for the western long wave
trough when it moves eastward across the country next week with
the more robust precipitation potential.

- izzi

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

1258 am cdt
concerns include:
* chance for scattered shra this morning and again this afternoon
* a period of MVFR CIGS today, with another tonight
* gusty southerly winds am, turning to southwest then west pm
* short period of llws at rfd early this morning
low pressure over the upper missouri valley early this morning
will quickly move to wisconsin by around 18z, with its trailing
cold front moving into northern illinois. In response, south-
southeast winds will increase with daybreak and then turn south or
south-southwest by mid morning, likely gusting to or slightly
over 20 kt. A disorganized area of scattered shra will likely
quickly move east across the area, and maintained tempo mention,
though confidence is only medium in occurrence at the terminals.

Still can't completely rule out a thunderstorm or too, but chances
and confidence much too low for any mention.

Cigs are expected to lower today, but latest trends suggest MVFR
cigs may hold off until primarily behind the scattered shra
activity. Another round of scattered shra or sprinkles are
possible this afternoon, but confidence is low. Until cold
frontal passage, there will be a period of southwest winds gusting
to around 20 kt, followed by a shift to west in the afternoon. It
appears there will be a break in the MVFR CIGS in the mid-late
afternoon into the early evening. Thereafter, a surge of cold air
in the wake of the low pressure system should cause redevelopment
of MVFR cigs. In addition, winds will turn west-northwest and
increase, with gusts of 25-30 kt if not higher.

Castro

Marine
345 am cdt
have upgraded the gale watch to a gale warning, starting in the
pre dawn hours of Wednesday. There will be hazardous winds and or
waves for small craft this evening leading into the gales.

Overall scenario hasn't changed. A fast moving low pressure
system will ramp up south to south-southwest winds today ahead of
its trailing cold front. The cold front passage will occur this
afternoon, shifting winds to westerly, with speeds then quickly
increasing this evening. A stronger push of cold air will occur
across southern lake michigan late tonight in addition to tight
pressure gradient around deepening departing low. This will
support effective mixing and onset of gale force speeds frequent
gusts. The northwest gales will ease by about mid day Wednesday
for the illinois nearshore and likely by sunset for the indiana
nearshore. Waves will build to over 10 ft along the indiana
nearshore. Hazardous waves for small craft will linger through mid
Thursday afternoon for the indiana nearshore.

Castro

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Lmz740-lmz741-lmz742-lmz743-lmz744-
lmz745... 7 pm Tuesday to 3 am Wednesday.

Gale warning... Lmz743-lmz744-lmz745... 3 am Wednesday to 7 pm
Wednesday.

Gale warning... Lmz740-lmz741-lmz742... 3 am Wednesday to 1 pm
Wednesday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45186 7 mi43 min SE 12 G 16 51°F 2 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi63 min SSE 13 G 15 49°F 1015.2 hPa (-2.1)
45174 25 mi33 min SE 14 G 19 53°F2 ft1013.2 hPa
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 40 mi43 min SSE 12 G 14 51°F 47°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi33 min SSE 16 G 19
CNII2 44 mi33 min SSE 6 G 6 48°F 42°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL4 mi68 minSSE 510.00 miFair47°F41°F80%1014.9 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi70 minSSE 710.00 miFair47°F42°F83%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3SW3W445W8
G16
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NW5SW8W5SW7SW5SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE5
1 day agoSW10SW9SW8
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W6W74W7
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W755W344533W3W4SW3
2 days agoSW12
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CalmCalm3SW3SW4SW6SW7SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.