Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop Harbor, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:20PM Sunday December 8, 2019 12:02 PM CST (18:02 UTC) Moonrise 3:32PMMoonset 4:11AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Am Cst Sun Dec 8 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm cst this afternoon...
Rest of today..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Cloudy. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing southeast early in the morning. Patchy fog through the night. Chance of drizzle through around midnight. Rain after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..South wind 5 to 10 knots veering southwest late in the morning, then veering west early in the afternoon rising to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of drizzle through the day. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Chance of drizzle through around midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201912082300;;046247 FZUS53 KMKX 081705 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-082300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop Harbor village, IL
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location: 42.47, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 081745 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1145 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

SHORT TERM. 350 AM CST

Through Monday night .

The forecast message in the short term is drizzle/light rain beginning tonight and continuing into Monday, along with the potential for some thicker fog late tonight into Monday morning. As colder air begins to arrive into the area late in the day Monday and more so Monday evening, there remains a chance of a brief period of snow showers or drizzle/freezing drizzle. Overall through this period though, the potential for high impact weather is low.

Observational data indicates low-level warm and more so moistening advection is ongoing across the region in response to a series of short waves along the international border and an associated developing low-level trough in the Upper Midwest. Various layers of clouds are drifting over the area and should continue to throughout today. Stratus should become more prevalent as well. The saturation depth and magnitude of isentropic omega look shallow enough to not warrant any drizzle or light showers for the daylight hours. Southwest winds will be breezy and usher in highs mainly in the mid 40s.

By this evening drizzle/light rain is expected to develop across much of the area after the atmosphere has had some time to become saturated enough for precip. Being situated roughly in the left exit region of a strong upper level jet during this period provides sufficient lift out ahead of an approaching developing low, especially our southeastern zones. The primary challenge through the day on Monday is the delineation between areas of drizzle vs light rain as well as the chance for fog development. The support for light rain continues to favor areas mainly southeast of I-55 during most of the event given there is more upper level support and mid- level moisture in place. Across areas to the northwest the mid- levels are a bit drier, and tends to be more favorable for drizzle.

Little change in temps occurs overnight tonight as southerly winds continue advecting warm air into the region out ahead of the approaching surface low, hovering around the upper 30s to mid 40s. This will also help to increase surface moisture and combined with the drizzle, the air at the surface will likely become saturated enough for fog development. There are indications that some of this fog could be dense.

Highs on Monday will be in the mid 40s to low 50s as we remain in the warm sector through much of the day before the low moves northeast across the area late Monday afternoon. There could be a small window where freezing drizzle/light snow are possible before the system fully moves out of the area to the east, generally between the 7-10pm timeframe. Although perhaps not as evident in the latest guidance, the combination of dry mid-levels limiting the potential for ice formation aloft and cloud tops remaining warmer than -10C through at least 9pm suggests that some areas could see more of a brief drizzle/freezing drizzle scenario rather than snow. Surface temps will likely remain warm enough that any surface icing seems minimal given the progressive nature of the system. Lows then drop down into the teens to mid 20s Monday night as cold air surges into the region.

MTF/Petr

LONG TERM. 300 AM CST

Tuesday through Saturday .

The primary weather message during this time frame is the midweek cold, which while not that cold for meteorological winter, is still appreciable cold for the first half of December, especially with no snow cover. Wind chills look to be single digits Tuesday morning and below zero for parts of the area later Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

Cold advection will be ongoing into Tuesday with the upper longwave trough established coincident to the Mississippi Valley. The 925 mb temperatures forecast are around -12C, which is in the lowest 5-10th percentile for the time of year using the DVN RAOB climatology. This will support little temperature climb, and if flat stratocu is more prevalent during the day then there may basically be no climb. Northwest winds are forecast to be gusting to near 20 mph during the day, which coupled with highs only in the 20s yield afternoon wind chills of only 10 to 15 degrees across much of the area. Lows Tuesday night look to dip into the single digits across north central Illinois, and the coverage of single digits will depend on any cloud cover.

A second cold reinforcement occurs early Wednesday morning on a subtle short wave moving across the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes. This feature is predicted in both the GFS and ECMWF and both do show a quick glance of saturation and lift in the 3000-8000 ft layer. Given the thermal profiles, it may not take much to rattle out some brief light snow or flurries when that passes, with a blend presently favoring Wednesday morning if that were to occur.

Highs on Wednesday should fall shy of 20 in at least northern locations, which is impressive with no snow cover looking back at climatology for the time of year. On Wednesday night, the heart of the 1040 mb high looks to be over Wisconsin/northern Illinois. This would support widespread lows in the single digits if the sky remains clear, but there are signs high clouds may be moving back in, so have kept the slightly tempered blended solution.

The pattern this week including into next weekend looks to remain progressive. With a fairly active jet, especially forecast by next weekend, it is difficult at this distance to time specific precipitation chances. One window of at least light precipitation in the Upper Midwest may be associated with the warm advection behind the cold high pressure. That would be possibly Thursday or early Friday. Most guidance including all members of the 00Z GFS ensemble in that time have any light precipitation north of the area. The next period would be this weekend as the aforementioned strong jet is predicted to potentially develop a system in the eastern half of the country.

MTF

AVIATION. For the 18Z TAFs .

Aviation forecast concerns:

-Development of MVFR ceilings late this afternoon/evening. -Deterioration to IFR/LIFR tonight in drizzle/light rain/fog. -Timing of improvement Monday afternoon and cold frontal passage. -Confidence in general trend is good, with lower confidence in details of actual vis/cig height from this evening through early Monday morning.

Late morning surface map indicates weak low pressure passing north of the Great Lakes region, with a cold front trailing southwest through IA and KS. South-southwest low level flow ahead of this front continues bring low level moisture into the region. Patchy IFR/MVFR clouds have developed during the morning across parts of northeast IL/northwest IN, particularly west of ORD/MDW. High-res model guidance continues to depict eventual expansion of MVFR cigs from around ORD southwest toward BDF toward evening, with a more widespread expansion later this evening. Forecast soundings indicate gradually deepening low level moist layer during the late evening/overnight hours, from which drizzle/light rain is expected to develop as an approaching mid-level disturbance produces ascent. This is expected to further deteriorate cigs/vis into IFR and eventually cigs in the LIFR range late tonight/early Monday. Lowest conditions will likely be early Monday, as the surface low tracks across northern IL. As the low passes, winds will shift to the southwest and then west through Monday afternoon, which should produce some improvement in ceilings and vis. Precipitation will likely become more showery Monday midday/afternoon, and there may be a brief period of mixed rain/snow around/just after the end of the 30 hour ORD/MDW forecast.

As for winds, modestly gusty south-southwest flow has been occurring in tighter gradient across the region today, with sporadic gusts in the 20-25 kt range at times despite shallow mixing. Winds will diminish through early evening however as the gradient weakens with the approach of the surface low pressure trough. Light winds may back more southeasterly for a time overnight ahead of the low, before shifting back southwest and then west Monday. Winds will become breezy again later Monday afternoon behind the departing low and cold front.

Ratzer

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory . nearshore waters until 3 PM Sunday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi63 min SSW 11 G 15 42°F 1011.2 hPa (-1.0)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 37 mi23 min SW 13 G 17 42°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 40 mi33 min SSW 17 G 19 42°F 39°F
CNII2 44 mi18 min SSW 9.9 G 17 43°F 36°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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G19

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL4 mi68 minSSW 13 G 216.00 miFair with Haze42°F34°F73%1012 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI10 mi70 minSW 12 G 225.00 miFair with Haze43°F36°F76%1011.3 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi70 minSSW 127.00 miFair41°F34°F76%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10S12S12S11S10S7S6S8S10S12S11S11S13S13S14
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SW11SW14S15
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1 day agoN66NE8N6NE4CalmCalmCalmSW3SW3SW3SW4SW5SW5W3SW4SW4SW7SW10S9SW7S7SW12SW11
2 days agoS11S12S10S8SW5S4S6S4S7SW6SW7SW7SW55NW9
G17
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G19
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.