Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop Harbor, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:29PM Sunday July 12, 2020 1:37 PM CDT (18:37 UTC) Moonrise 12:22AMMoonset 12:50PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 107 Pm Cdt Sun Jul 12 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm cdt this evening...
Rest of today..North wind 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots veering northeast 5 to 15 knots after midnight, then backing north 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the morning.
Monday..North wind 5 to 10 knots veering northeast late in the morning, then becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering south early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ646 Expires:202007122200;;741469 FZUS53 KMKX 121807 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 107 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-122200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop Harbor village, IL
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location: 42.47, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 121740 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1240 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SHORT TERM. 336 AM CDT

Through Monday .

Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible early this morning as a subtle disturbance drifts south out of Wisconsin. A region of elevated instability remains across northeastern Illinois providing enough support for storms to maintain their intensity, including a stronger storm currently in DeKalb county. Still am expecting this activity to diminish in coverage over the next couple of hours.

As the trough axis and weak surface low shifts south and east this morning, winds turn northerly and become quite breezy today. This will result in building waves along the lakeshore with associated beach hazards expected the remainder of the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may try to develop along the lake breeze boundary as it drops south late morning into the early afternoon. This activity should remain below severe limits but a few stronger storms cannot be entirely ruled out. The majority of the area should remain dry today.

Thanks to northerly flow off the lake, temperatures today should only warm into the low 80s, with 70s expected lakeside. Surface high pressure builds in by Monday resulting in a rather pleasant summer day with mostly sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the low to mid 80s.

Petr

LONG TERM. 336 AM CDT

Monday night through Saturday .

Dry and warmer conditions are expected into Tuesday to start the period, then thunderstorm potential increases mid-week with more humidity. Still some guidance support for warmer temps toward next weekend, though with periodic thunderstorm chances likely to modulate the degree of heat.

Surface ridge axis drifts east Monday night, allowing light south- southeast low level flow to develop while upper level ridge builds in aloft. Ridging both surface and aloft continue to shift east Tuesday, as height falls develop across the upper Midwest ahead of a short wave and upper level jet streak propagating around the southeastern periphery of an upper low over the Canadian prairies. Primary surface low with this feature remains well north across Canada, though a cold front is progged to trail into Wisconsin and Iowa by Tuesday evening. South-southwest low level winds and associated warm advection boost H8 temps to around +18C by afternoon, pushing high temps back into the upper 80s/near 90 across the area. The axis of better moisture return remains mainly west of the Mississippi however, with guidance keeping precip potential west of the cwa through the day.

The cold front is progged to edge slowly closer to the forecast area Tuesday night into early Wednesday, with the Canadian guidance notably quicker than the rest of the suite of models. Convection looks to be slow to move eastward, likely working against capping inversion noted in forecast soundings. Have trimmed back pops considerably from NBM delivered values, especially across the eastern cwa. Have focused chances mainly across the western half of the forecast area Tuesday evening, then shifting east after midnight with an attendant minor amplitude short wave indicated across the area overnight. Models then depict a slightly more amplified wave, possibly convectively enhanced across the Plains, tracking across the region Wednesday into Wednesday night with a surface wave reflection along the trailing portion of the cold front. This mid- week period appears to the focus for the highest pops, and likely some potential for strong/severe storms and locally heavy rainfall.

Models continue to indicate that the surface cold front/combined outflow boundary from Wednesday night convection should sag south of the forecast area Thursday, with weak surface high pressure developing in the wake of the departing short wave. Have maintained some slight chance pops across the southern tier or so of cwa counties, but otherwise trended dry across the north until the front eventually begins to lift back north as a warm front late Thursday night into Friday. Warm, moist air mass then is progged to remain across the area Friday and Saturday, with the forecast area along the southern periphery of stronger mid-level westerly flow. This suggests the potential for additional periodic storm chances into the weekend, in or near the "ring of fire" along the northern edge of broad ridging across the southern CONUS.

Temp wise, warm and more muggy conditions are expected Wednesday in the vicinity of moisture pooled along/ahead of the cold front. Presence of convection and cloud cover lends a little lower confidence to temps, but mid-upper 80s are reasonable. With the front south of the area Thursday, and high pressure centered near or north of the area, we should see more lake cooling. Not much of a push of cooler air is noted however, with the front not moving to far away, and with the potential for more sun upper 80s look reasonable away from the lake. With the front lifting back north across the area Friday into Saturday, warmer temps are likely in store, though modulated by any convection. ECMWF and CMC are a little more aggressive with heat by Saturday, with H8 temps in excess of +20C. Low 90s are likely, and some mid-90s (as depicted by the ECMWF mos) are not out of the question - but with fairly low confidence given the pattern. Increasing humidity could potentially result in 100+ degree heat index values by the weekend.

Ratzer

AVIATION. For the 18Z TAFs .

There are no major weather concerns through the period. Scattered to occasionally broken low end VFR CIGS are expected this afternoon and again on Monday. Otherwise, expect some occasionally gusty northeast winds through the afternoon. Lighter east- northeasterly winds are expected on Monday as surface high pressure builds overhead.

KJB

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . Beach Hazards Statement . ILZ006-ILZ103-ILZ104 until 3 AM Monday.

IN . Beach Hazards Statement . INZ001-INZ002 until 7 AM Monday.

LM . Small Craft Advisory . IL nearshore waters until 3 AM Monday.

Small Craft Advisory . IN nearshore waters until 7 AM Monday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45187 3 mi57 min NE 12 G 16 70°F 73°F3 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi37 min NE 14 G 16 69°F 1012.5 hPa (+0.0)
45174 25 mi27 min N 14 G 19 71°F 75°F5 ft1012.5 hPa64°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 37 mi47 min NE 12 G 13 69°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 40 mi37 min N 19 G 20 71°F 64°F
45013 44 mi67 min ENE 12 G 16 69°F 70°F3 ft1013.4 hPa
CNII2 44 mi22 min N 12 G 15 76°F 61°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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NE3
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N8
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G6
W2
W2
G5
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G5
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SE12
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G11
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G17
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G17
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S8
G12
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G14
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G19
W6
G18
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G10
W6
G11
NW7
G13
NW7
G16
N5
G9

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL4 mi42 minENE 11 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F62°F67%1011.4 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI10 mi44 minENE 810.00 miFair77°F63°F62%1012.4 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi44 minNNE 1210.00 miFair74°F61°F64%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr56W7345W3W3CalmSW3CalmW3CalmNW4W3NW4NE9
G19
NE10
G20
NE10
G22
N9N11
G21
N9
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NE9NE11
G18
1 day agoNW8
G16
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G20
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G18
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NW8NW4CalmCalmNW334NW5W444NW4NW4453W7NW10
G21
W8
G15
2 days agoSE12SE8E6SE6SE8CalmSE11
G20
S66NE5SW5SW5SW4SW5W4334NW8NW9NW10
G19
NW8
G20
NW6
G19
W10
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.