Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ripley, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 4:51PM Monday December 16, 2019 4:56 AM EST (09:56 UTC) Moonrise 9:41PMMoonset 11:27AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 1231 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Overnight..Southeast winds less than 10 knots becoming south. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds less than 10 knots. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..East winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast and increasing to 15 to 20 knots overnight. A chance of snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow in the morning, then a chance of snow and rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy, then becoming cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LEZ040 Expires:201912161000;;857236 FZUS51 KBUF 160533 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1231 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-161000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ripley, NY
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location: 42.48, -79.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 160927 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 427 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

SYNOPSIS. Surface high pressure will bring a fair weather day to the region, with any lingering lake effect snow flurries ending through the morning hours. An area of low pressure will spread a period of snow across the region tonight and Tuesday, with greatest amounts across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region. Lake effect snow will develop Tuesday night and Wednesday, as a much colder airmass arrives for the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Surface high pressure is building across our region this morning, bringing an end to the lake effect snow as much drier air is filtered into the snow bands. There are still a few flurries and light snow showers SE of Lake Ontario this morning. A backing wind through the morning may bring a few snow flakes up to the Watertown area before the lake clouds dissipate.

Fair weather will then continue across the region, with afternoon temperatures rising to or just above the freezing mark.

Tonight a surface low will track from the Tennessee Valley and northwards towards West Virginia. An inverted trough will extend northward across our region. Aloft a southern stream shortwave will pass across the Lower Ohio Valley . deepening the downstream surface low. Aloft also will be a strengthening 190 knot jet core at 300 hPa with the front right entrance region over our area . increasing large scale synoptic lift tonight. Moisture will continue to stream northward from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of this shortwave trough aloft.

Thermal profiles suggest that our region will remain entrenched in colder air in the lower atmosphere to allow for just snow to fall tonight. There will be a warm nose aloft reaching northern PA, but with the core of the LLJ remaining across Central and then Eastern PA tonight, the wintry mix line of sleet/freezing rain will likely remain just to our south.

For tonight light snow will begin to spread into the Southern Tier this evening within the base of the inverted surface trough. As the surface low advances towards WV later tonight a deformation band of snow is likely to form . with this band of snow falling over well inland areas of Chautauqua and Erie counties and eastward towards the Finger Lakes region. Snow will be slightly heavier under this band . with several inches of fresh snow possible by late tonight across the Southern Tier and towards the southern Finger Lakes. We will issue a winter weather advisory for synoptic snow . starting late this evening and continuing through the day Tuesday. Through the Buffalo-Batavia-Rochester corridor snow accumulations will be much less, with a half inch or less expected tonight.

Lows tonight will range through the 20s with a light easterly flow.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Widespread synoptic snow will be ongoing Tuesday morning as a weak low tracks towards the Delmarva. As the low slides to our south, we will remain well within the cold side of the system. Additional snow amounts into Tuesday afternoon remain close to continuity and latest WPC guidance with 2-3" focused south of the Thruway and 1-2" to the north including the Buffalo, Rochester and Watertown areas. The low will deepen a bit as it moves approaches the New Jersey coast late Tuesday. This will pull the deeper moisture away from the area with the synoptic snow diminishing from west to east through the afternoon.

Lake enhanced snow starts not too far behind the ending of the synoptic snow, as colder air starts to work into the area behind the departing low. The initial lake response will be muted, but will take on an uptick as we move through Tuesday night and into early Wednesday as moisture increases from an upstream shortwave trough and an approaching cold front. This sharp cold front will sweep through the region Wednesday morning bringing an arctic blast into the region. Strong cold air advection behind the front will send 850 mb temperatures plummeting to between -20C and -22C by Wednesday afternoon, producing extreme over-lake instability. A period of at least moderate intensity lake effect snow will develop during this time period.

There may be a period late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning that the lake snows could focus northeast of the lakes ahead of the cold front, possibly as far north as the Buffalo metro area, but the west-northwest flow behind the front will quickly shift the lake snows southward into the Boston Hills, higher terrain of Wyoming county and the Chautauqua ridge for much of the day Wednesday. The lake effect snow should continue straight into Wednesday night before slowly diminishing in intensity as we get to Thursday morning, with the approach of surface high pressure from the Ohio Valley and associated dry air and subsidence causing inversion heights to come down. Accumulations at the stage look to be at least several inches and certainly plowable for areas east of the lakes.

The arctic plunge behind the cold front will send temperatures toppling downward during the day Wednesday, starting the day int the 20s but ending the day in the teens. Temperatures falling further Wednesday night into the single digits to below zero east of Lake Ontario. Elevated winds during this time will drop wind chill values to below zero to perhaps as cold as 20 below east of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The eastern Great Lakes remains on the western side of a departing upper level trough Thursday. Lingering lake effect snow showers will persist Thursday as 850mb temperatures rise through the afternoon. A large scale ridge will move overhead late in the week which will suppress any snow showers and dry conditions expected into the weekend.

Model guidance is in some agreement that a closed low will track across the Lower 48 Saturday-Sunday and initiate cyclogenesis across the southern U.S. This will keep most of the activity well to our south however a northern stream shortwave trough may track across the Great Lakes Sunday-Monday bringing the chance for snow showers.

Temperatures will remain below normal however there will be a slight warming trend through the weekend.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Lake effect snow showers will continue to decrease in coverage east of Lake Ontario early this morning. Otherwise, a period of VFR conditions today with bkn mid level cigs streaming into the area.

Weak low pressure tracking south of the area will bring widespread steady snow to New York state late tonight. Cigs will start to lower to MVFR across the Southern Tier by 06z, then areas south of the NYS Thruway will deteriorate to IFR in light snow by 12z Tuesday.

Outlook . Tuesday . IFR in light snow. Wednesday . IFR in lake effect snow east of the lakes, with VFR elsewhere. Thursday . IFR in lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes, VFR elsewhere. Friday . VFR.

MARINE. A strong low over eastern Quebec continues to drift away from the region. Winds and waves have diminished enough such that small craft advisories have been dropped for now all zones of Lake Ontario.

Surface high pressure will cross the region today and tonight, with light winds and minimal waves on the water bodies.

Another period of stronger winds will develop late Tuesday night and Wednesday as a strong cold front crosses the region. This will bring the next round of Small Craft Advisory conditions to the eastern Great Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ012>014-019>021-085. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Thomas NEAR TERM . Thomas SHORT TERM . HSK/TMA LONG TERM . HSK AVIATION . Hitchcock/JLA/TMA MARINE . Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NREP1 16 mi87 min SSW 5.1 G 7 31°F
EREP1 25 mi57 min SSW 4.1 G 6
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 26 mi57 min E 7 G 8 29°F 1022 hPa (-0.3)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 45 mi63 min 27°F 1021.5 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY31 mi64 minE 510.00 miOvercast29°F19°F69%1022.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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NW9NW8NW7NW4NW5E3SE4SE4E5E6E5
1 day agoNE4NE5N5N12N9N7NW13N11
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S14S9S5SE11E8E6NW3CalmE3N3N3N3E4NE4N4NE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.