Monday, August10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ripley, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 8:29PM Monday August 10, 2020 2:35 PM EDT (18:35 UTC) Moonrise 11:01PMMoonset 12:05PM Illumination 57% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 401 Am Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ040 Expires:202008101545;;215725 FZUS51 KBUF 100801 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 401 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-101545-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ripley, NY
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location: 42.48, -79.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 101816 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 216 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak upper level disturbance will produce a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, but the vast majority of the time will be rain free. An approaching weak cold front will then bring some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. Warmth and humidity will continue through Tuesday before the cold front ushers in less humid air mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A weak warm frontal segment will move east of the area this afternoon, while a convectively augmented shortwave passes north of Lake Ontario. This combined with moderate diurnal instability and lake breeze boundaries will support a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. These will be most widespread across the St Lawrence Valley, but also will develop across the Western Finger Lakes and even across Niagara County along a lake breeze convergence boundary.

Otherwise, today will be hot with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Heat index values will be in the mid 90s from the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes to Central NY.

Any widely scattered showers and storms will end this evening, leaving dry weather and partly cloudy to mainly clear skies overnight. A very warm airmass and light breeze will keep temperatures very mild. Expect lows in the lower 70s on the lake plains, and mid 60s across the interior Southern Tier and Lewis County. The breeze will likely prevent fog formation despite the muggy airmass.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. A weak mid level trough and associated weak cold front will approach and eventually move through the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. Looking at the details, Tuesday will start off dry, with scattered showers and storms developing in the afternoon along lake breeze boundaries and a pre-frontal trough. With a lack of any real strong dynamics aloft and a well established lake breeze out of the southwest, areas northeast of the lakes (Buffalo/Watertown) may not see much if any rain during the bulk of the day. The scattered showers and storms will continue Tuesday night with all areas fair game to get some rain as the mid level trough and a cold front cross the area. PWAT values climb to around 1.75 inches, so any storms will be capable of very heavy downpours. Relatively weak shear and poor mid level lapse rates will limit the severe weather risk.

Tuesday will be another very warm and humid day, with highs in the mid 80s across western NY and around 90 from the Genesee Valley/northern Finger Lakes region eastward at lower elevations. The heat index may approach 95 from the Genesee Valley to the northern Finger Lakes and Oswego County.

The frontal boundary will stall just southeast of the region for the Wednesday through Wednesday night timeframe, with surface high pressure building in from the north across the Great Lakes region. A few lingering showers or an isolated storm cannot be ruled out across the interior southern Tier and Finger Lakes region, with the best chance toward the the NY/PA border, with the remainder of the area staying dry. The airmass will be a bit cooler and notably less humid with post-frontal dew points around 60.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Model consensus keeps the weak frontal boundary stalled out just to our south Thursday through Friday as high pressure remains in control of the weather across the bulk of the area. This will provide dry weather for the vast majority of the region, however a few showers cannot be ruled out from time to time across the Southern Tier, especially closer to the NY/PA line. By Saturday surface high pressure over east-central Quebec will slide south toward New Brunswick and Nova Scotia by Sunday, allowing the western end of the stalled boundary to the south, to start pivoting its' way slowly back northward toward western NY. At the same time, a weak mid-level trough will approach the region from the west on Saturday, and this combined with deeper moisture and daytime instability may produce a few showers or storms, especially south of Lake Ontario. Much of the area should be dry Saturday night as the aforementioned southward settling area of high pressure ridges in from the northwest. The next system will approach from the west on Sunday, with the chance for showers increasing from west to east to close out the weekend.

Temperatures will continue to run above average throughout the period. Expect highs in the mid 80s at lower elevations each day, with lows in the 60s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Mainly VFR flight conditions for the 18Z TAF cycle. The exception will be in any showers and thunderstorms. These will be possible through 23Z today, and again after 13Z Tuesday morning. Coverage will be scattered with any impact expected to last an hour or less at any one location. Wind should be strong enough tonight to prevent fog formation despite the muggy airmass.

Outlook .

Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night . Scattered showers and thunderstorms. VFR prevailing, with brief MVFR/IFR possible in storms. Wednesday and Friday . Mainly VFR. Saturday . VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

MARINE. Modest southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots this afternoon will produce some choppy wave action. Expect similar conditions again Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front, but winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. Light winds are then expected on Lakes Erie and Ontario Wednesday through Thursday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ003>006-013- 014. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel NEAR TERM . Apffel SHORT TERM . Apffel/JM LONG TERM . Apffel/JM AVIATION . Apffel MARINE . Apffel/Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NREP1 16 mi66 min W 5.1 G 8.9 91°F
45167 25 mi116 min W 5.8 G 7.8 79°F 77°F1016.5 hPa
EREP1 25 mi48 min WNW 7 G 8
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 26 mi36 min WSW 8 G 9.9 80°F 1016.6 hPa (+0.0)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 45 mi48 min 78°F 1016.8 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY31 mi43 minWSW 1010.00 miFair85°F68°F57%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11W10SW13SW8SW7SW7SW7SW6S4SW6S7S7S7S8SW7S7S7S8S8S8W9W10W12W10
1 day agoW8W8W6W8W6SW5S4S3S7S3S4SW4S6S6SW7SW6S8S10S9S9SW12SW13SW14
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2 days agoN12N11N10N8N7N4CalmS3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S3CalmS3Calm5N4N6NW5NW9W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.