Marine Weather and Tides
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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|Sunrise 6:32AM||Sunset 8:14PM||Wednesday August 21, 2019 4:02 PM EDT (20:02 UTC)||Moonrise 10:21PM||Moonset 11:14AM||Illumination 63%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ripley, NYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 kbuf 211807|
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
207 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019
A cold front will push through the region tonight. While this could
spark a few more showers or thunderstorms... It will bring an end to
a stretch of warm and muggy conditions. We will then experience
spectacular weather Thursday through the upcoming weekend with
little cloud cover... Comfortable temperatures and low humidity.
Near term through Thursday
During the remainder of the afternoon... Our forecast area will find
itself within an unstable airmass well ahead of an approaching cold
front. A well established lake shadow downwind of lake erie will
keep the buf metro area and much of the iag frontier free of any
rainfall... While there will be the risk for some widely separated
showers and storms most elsewhere.
Any convection that does fire up before 6 pm will likely do so along
and just ahead of a strengthening lake breeze boundary. As of
1730z... This line of enhanced CU stretched from near batavia
southwest along the chautauqua ridge to about ripley. As this
mesoscale forcing mechanism pushes east... It will encounter sbcapes
averaging 1500 j kg. Fortunately bulk shear values will only range
from 20 to 25 knots... So there will not be a significant risk for
severe weather. Pwat values in the vcnty of 1.5" though could
encourage pockets of locally heavy rain... Mainly over the southern
tier and finger lakes region. That being said... The coverage for the
possible convection should not be nearly as widespread as that from
early this morning.
Otherwise it will be warm and humid for the rest of the afternoon
with 70 degree dew points being accompanied by temperatures that
will largely range from the low to mid 80s.
A cold front will gradually push to the south across our forecast
area tonight. Other than a very modest 30kt low level jet and some
convergence near and ahead of this boundary... There really is not
much forcing to support widespread pcpn. A strong h25 jet will pass
to our north... But it will be in the 'wrong' place to give any
additional lift from the upper levels. It is interesting to note
though... That most if not all of the guidance packages are grossly
under estimating the strength of the ul jet. Aircraft measurements
from across minnesota this morning measured winds >160kts with this
jet... But upper air soundings have only been able to 'capture' winds
of 115 to 120kts. As mentioned though... The position of the jet is
more important and this is not favorable for significant weather
production. In any case... Will use chc pops for showers and
Thursday will feature improving conditions... As a cooler and notably
drier airmass will gradually push across our region in the wake of
the overnight cold frontal passage. While a brief shower cannot be
ruled out across the southern tier... Dry air advecting south in the
mid levels and a developing subsidence inversion should keep any
shower activity to a minimum. Otherwise... It will become
increasingly comfortable as dew points in the lower 60s during the
morning will drop through the 50s during the afternoon. Meanwhile...
afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 70s.
Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
Upper level trough that drops across lower great lakes and northeast
conus late this week will still be mainly north and west of the
region on Thursday. Though primary cold front sweeps across by late
Wednesday night, strongest cold air advection will lag the fropa,
not really arriving until Friday. Strong upper jet over 110 kts on
leading side of upper trough and another weaker shortwave area of
deeper moisture may trigger isolated showers over southern tier
during peak heating Thursday afternoon, but otherwise dry weather
should prevail though skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. High
temperatures will settle into the low to mid 70s, coolest in the
southern tier and to east of lake ontario. Most clouds will fade on
Thursday night though some clouds will persist closer to eastern
lake ontario. With the clearing skies and temperatures falling into
into the upper 40s at the coolest, could be valley fog over the
Cold air advection continues into Friday with h85 temps down to +7c
or +8c by daybreak Friday. NW flow across the much warmer temps of
lake ontario (averaging 21c at mid lake) will result in a
conditionally unstable airmass for lake effect processes. Other than
a thin moist layer around 800mb 5-6kft, soundings look dry. There
could be just enough over-water instability and low-level
convergence for a few showers downstream of southeast lake ontario.
Any showers, if they occur, will become disrupted and disorganized
by late Friday morning due to daytime heating and strong subsidence.
Another day of expanding stratocu clouds with partly to mostly
cloudy skies by afternoon. High temps will be in the lower 70s most
locations. After clouds clear out Friday evening, clearing skies and
cool temps could lead to another night with some valley fog in the
On Saturday, high pressure will be firmly in control of weather
across the region. Though ECMWF still looks overdone with depiction|
of closed off upper low sinking across the mid atlantic, think a
weaker secondary shortwave dropping across southern quebec and new
england could lead to some isolated showers east of lake ontario.
Probably will just see an enhancement to clouds more than anything
else, especially with upslope northerly flow developing by that
time. High temps on Saturday begin to tick upward, mainly in the mid
70s. Low temps on Saturday night stay seasonably cool with readings
in the 50s across the board.
Long term Sunday through Tuesday
Sunday features dry weather as high pressure persists. The more
sluggish ECMWF would result in more clouds, but still thinking it is
overplaying the amount of upper level troughing. Temps will rebound
further with readings into the
medium range guidance begins to diverge with respect to how quickly
the ridge slides further east and out to sea... And gives way to the
next trough and associated moisture approaching from the west. The
gfs remains fastest with this overall scenario and brings increasing
chances for convection into our region... While the ECMWF lies on the
other side of the guidance envelope and keeps the ridge intact and
our region totally dry through Tuesday. Given continuity and a
general distrust for the GFS this far out... Will lean toward the
latter scenario and keep dry weather in place through Monday... With
only very low-end chances for convection returning on Tuesday.
Otherwise... The combination of general airmass modification and warm
air advection will lead to a slow but steady day-to-day warming
trend through this period... With highs in the lower to mid 70s on
Saturday climbing back to the upper 70s and lower 80s by Monday.
Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Vfr conditions will be found across the region this afternoon and
evening... Although a developing lake breeze boundary should help to
re-ignite some thunderstorms well south and east of buffalo and
Tonight... A cold front will gradually push across the region. While
this feature should generate more scattered convection... The vast
majority of the area should continue to experienceVFR weather. The
exception will be across the southern tier and possibly the north
country... Where late night fog and stratus could lead to MVFR to ifr
Thursday will featureVFR weather as high pressure over central
canada will gradually build south across the upper great lakes.
Thursday through Monday... MainlyVFR with nothing more than southern
tier valley fog producing local MVFR ifr conditions each morning.
A southwesterly flow will be in place across the region this
afternoon ahead of a cold front with waves building to 2-4 feet on
lake erie. A cold front will swing across the lower lakes this
evening and early overnight, with waves and winds increasing within
the cold air advection environment.
Wnw winds over the shorter fetch of lake erie will build waves 2-3
feet tonight and Thursday, while a longer fetch and slightly
stronger wind flow over lake ontario will bring waves up to 5 feet
or greater on the southern lake ontario shoreline. Small craft
advisories have been issued.
Tides coastal flooding
A strong cold front will cross the lower great lakes this evening.
Strengthening west to northwesterlies in the wake of the front will
increase wave action and combine with already high lake levels to
produce significant shoreline erosion and flooding late tonight
through late Thursday afternoon. A lakeshore flood warning is
now in effect for wayne, northern cayuga and oswego counties.
Since winds will be more westerly and not as much onshore, the
lakeshore flood watch was dropped for niagara, orleans and
Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood warning from 5 am to 5 pm edt Thursday for
Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 am to 8 pm edt Thursday for loz043-
Small craft advisory from 2 am to 2 pm edt Thursday for
Small craft advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt Thursday for
near term... Rsh
short term... Jla
long term... Jla jjr
marine... Hitchcock jla rsh
tides coastal flooding... Rsh jla
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|EREP1||25 mi||45 min||W 6 G 8.9|
|DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY||26 mi||63 min||WSW 9.9 G 13||77°F||1011.9 hPa (-0.3)|
|45142 - Port Colborne||35 mi||63 min||WSW 14 G 16||76°F||76°F||1 ft||1011 hPa (-1.4)|
|PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY||45 mi||51 min||75°F||1011.7 hPa|
Wind History for Buffalo, NY(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY||31 mi||70 min||WSW 11||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||81°F||69°F||67%||1011.9 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KDKK
Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||W||SW||W||SW||Calm||S||S||Calm||S||Calm||Calm||SE||Calm||S||Calm||Calm||Calm||SE||SE||SW||N||NW||N||N|
|2 days ago||W||W||S||SW||S||NE||S||S|
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GOES Local Image of EDIT
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Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (16,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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