Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 8:32PM Saturday August 17, 2019 8:39 AM EDT (12:39 UTC) Moonrise 8:55PMMoonset 7:29AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 331 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly Sunny. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the east after midnight...then veering to the south early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny with showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening...then partly cloudy after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north in the evening. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201908172015;;762884 FZUS63 KDTX 170731 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 331 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure of 29.80 inches will linger across the northern Great Lakes through today. Another low, averaging 29.60 inches, will lift across Lake Superior on Sunday bringing a warm front in the morning/early afternoon and a cold front by the evening for the central Great Lakes. LCZ460-172015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
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location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 171003
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
603 am edt Sat aug 17 2019

Aviation
Increased low-level moisture has resulted in minor vsby restrictions
in fog and low clouds across parts of the area this morning. This
will begin to lift and dissipate over the next few hours as daytime
mixing commences. Subsidence in the wake of overnight convection
will help to dry the boundary layer a bit today, leading to just
scattered coverage of diurnal cumulus this afternoon. Resurgence of
low-level moisture from the southwest tonight results in likely low
vfr, possibly MVFR, CIGS overnight.

For dtw... Showers and thunderstorms are possible along and south of
i-94 later this afternoon as an instability gradient lingers near
the mi-oh border, but confidence is too low at this time to
highlight with a tempo group. Most likely time frame would be
roughly 22-02z.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* moderate for ceilings AOB 5kft through this morning, and again
late tonight.

* low for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at 310 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
discussion...

showers and a few thunderstorms now ongoing across SE mi are in
response to the approach of a mid level short wave impulse. A narrow
low to mid level theta E plume preceding this wave supplied enough
moisture to generate a decent coverage of showers. Shallow mid level
lapse rates have limited the degree of elevated instability, keeping
coverage of thunder more widely scattered.

The showers will exit east of the forecast area around shortly after
daybreak as the upper wave pulls off to the east. A mid level
subsidence bubble will then expand across SE mi. The resulting mid
level subsidence (building cap) and some drying in the boundary
layer will effectively inhibit daytime convection. Intervals of sun
along with diurnal mixing will support afternoon highs into the 80s.

Much better chances for late day convection will occur south of the
state where numerous convectively induced short wave impulses ripple
across the ohio valley. Low level moisture and instability will
however slowly seep northward during the afternoon and evening as
low level flow backs toward the southwest, warranting a low chance
for late day convection mainly south of the i-94 corridor.

A deep upper low rotating across central canada will drive a longer
wavelength trough into the northern plains tonight. There will be a
strengthening of the nocturnal low level jet across the central
plains and mid mississippi valley which will focus nocturnal mcs
development across the upper midwest and western great lakes region.

There is strong model agreement that this upstream convection will
generate an mcv(s) which will traverse lower mi Sunday. Increased
south-southwest flow in advance of this wave will likely advect a
plume of weak to moderately unstable air into at least portions of
se mi on Sunday. This combined with strengthening mid level flow
(with the potential for 0-6km shear to reach 50 knots) suggests a
risk of severe thunderstorms capable of strong winds. The potential
for some convective development early in the day within an initial
moisture instability surge (limiting late day instability) and given
that much of the severe potential resides on upstream development on
the meso scale are the leading factors that still add uncertainty to
the overall severe risk on Sunday. Timing of convection will also
play heavily in the high temp forecast for Sunday, supporting a
little more conservative forecast (low to mid 80s primarily).

The central canadian upper level low is forecast to meander across
northern manitoba hudson bay early in the work week, leaving a
generally zonal mid level flow across the great lakes. A weakening
surface front and instability axis (thus better convective chances)
will hold generally across far southern lower mi or into the nrn
ohio valley. The upper low is forecast to make a push south toward
the northern great lakes mid week, driving cooler and drier air into
se mi for the latter half of the work week.

Marine...

generally southwesterly flow of less than 15 knots is expected over
the lakes today as weak high pressure moves through the region.

South-southwest winds increase on Sunday afternoon as a low pressure
system lifts into the western and northern great lakes. This system
will bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening, with locally higher wind and waves to
be expected in any thunderstorm activity. Boating conditions become
more favorable again for Monday and Tuesday with high pressure
filling back in and leading to lighter wind and waves, though a
stalled frontal boundary may lead to additional shower thunderstorm
activity over lake erie and lake st. Clair.

Hydrology...

scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely move through on
Sunday afternoon and evening as a low pressure system tracks through
the great lakes. The air mass over the region will be characterized
by dew points near 70 degrees and precipitable water values of 1.50
to 1.75 inches. This will likely result in heavy downpours within
any convective activity. Basin-average rainfall totals of 0.25 to
0.50 inches look to be the most likely, though higher totals can be
expected for any locations that see repeated thunderstorms.

Relatively dry antecedent conditions will mitigate much of a greater
flood threat, though urban and small stream flooding will be
possible Sunday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Tf
discussion... Sc
marine... ... .Tf
hydrology... .Tf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi39 min WSW 7 G 8.9 71°F 1013.2 hPa (+1.3)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi39 min Calm 72°F 74°F1 ft1010.6 hPa (-0.3)
AGCM4 21 mi57 min 71°F 73°F1011.7 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi57 min 71°F 1011.4 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 43 mi57 min WSW 7 G 9.9 70°F 1011.4 hPa67°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 49 mi59 min SSW 14 G 16 73°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi46 minWSW 810.00 miFair70°F66°F90%1012.4 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi44 minSW 77.00 miPartly Cloudy69°F69°F100%1012.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi64 minSW 47.00 miFair67°F66°F97%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE644CalmSE8SE4SW8SW7S9SW9
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1 day agoE8E9NE96
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NE7NE9NE7NE10NE7NE7N7NE6N6N3CalmN3N3N5NW4Calm
2 days agoNE5NE5N5E9E9SE10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.