Thursday, September24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 7:26PM Thursday September 24, 2020 7:32 PM EDT (23:32 UTC) Moonrise 2:45PMMoonset 11:47PM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 329 Am Edt Thu Sep 24 2020
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots this evening becoming light and variable. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202009242015;;280857 FZUS63 KDTX 240729 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 329 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure to the south will be forced northeast toward the central Appalachians today as weak low pressure develops along a stalling cold front near The Straits, responsible for some shower activity. A stronger cold front sweeps through on Saturday followed by a strong low pressure system approaching the Great Lakes by Monday. Central pressure will minimize near 29.20 inHg with the system making for a cooler, wetter, and windier environment by next week. LCZ460-242015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
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location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 241929 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 329 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

DISCUSSION.

Warm weather carries into the Weekend, but a big pattern shift to take place next week.

Once again temperatures making a run toward 80 degrees in spots this afternoon with the low level southwest flow and plenty of sunshine. Mid level cold (-15 C at 500 mb) pool/upper wave exiting the Minneapolis area will track harmlessly to the southeast tonight into the western Ohio Valley, as pronounced upper level ridge builds into the Western Great Lakes. This will allow weakening cold front to wash out over the Central Great Lakes. With the ill defined pressure pattern, dew pts holding in the 50s, and winds going calm tonight, patchy fog will be possible but probably highly localized and not worth a mention in the zones. Low level winds a bit more south- southeast tomorrow, along with some late day moisture advection should be enough to keep boundary layer mixing depths to come up short of the 850 mb level, but still looks like max temps reaching into the upper 70s/near 80 degrees with 925 mb temps of 18+ C.

Strengthening low level southwest flow Friday night-Saturday ahead of yet another dissipating cold front should result in even warmer temperatures for Saturday, with 850 mb temps of 15+ C suggestive of low to mid 80s, although still going to be a challenge to mix to that level. Regardless, should become a bit breezy, with gusts to 25 MPH indicated late in the day. There is instability axis (negative showalter index) to content with as low level jet tracks through Saturday night, but mid levels look too warm and dry to support thunderstorms.

Energetic Pacific energy to track through the Northern Rockies over the weekend, with additional energy diving out of the Gulf of Alaska helping to carve out a longwave trough over the Central Conus, absorbing the remaining upper level energy/wave over eastern Texas in the process. The operational Euro remains on the stronger envelope of the solutions when compared to GFS ensemble members for early next week, but the general theme of large upper level low center developing over/near the Great Lakes region remains valid for the mid week period. Increasing FGEN and surface low tracking in between Central/Eastern Great Lakes should be able to support showers and possibly an embedded thunderstorm in the Monday-Tuesday time frame before the deepening low pressure tracks into eastern Canada driving much colder air into the Great lakes region. 850 mb temps look to drop below zero by Friday, just under 10 percent moving average based on SPC climatology page. Max temps stuck in the 50s appears likely at the end of the forecast period, as moisture flux from Lake Michigan contributes to mostly cloudy skies.

MARINE.

Disjointed high pressure persists to the south while a cold front stalls over northern Lake Huron. The bulk of the associated showers will remain mainly over the open waters of Lake Huron. Winds drift toward the south with drier weather during the day on Friday. A stronger cold front arrives on Saturday bringing gusty showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, mainly for Lake Huron. Small Craft Advisories may be needed as gusts near 22 knots during the afternoon with southwest flow. After the front clears east, a cooling trend ensues with daily chances for showers with breezy conditions. A strong low pressure system could trigger marine hazards Monday into Tuesday with a tight pressure gradient field and an extended period of heightened waves.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 123 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

AVIATION .

VFR flying conditions will largely prevail through the TAF period with diffuse surface high pressure maintaining a persistence forecast. A weak frontal boundary draped across northern Michigan will wash out with increased coverage of mid/high clouds, while cirrus shield associated with remnants of Beta continue sweeping off to the southeast across the remainder of the airspace, although just enough boundary layer moisture will be present to squeeze out some isolated cu in spots this afternoon. Patchy MVFR haze will again be possible around daybreak Friday morning with otherwise SKC the latter half of the period. Light west/southwest winds will prevail through the period generally under 10 knots.

For DTW . Slight visibility reduction in haze possible at times this afternoon, with MVFR haze/ground fog again possible around daybreak Friday morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* None.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . SF MARINE . KK AVIATION . IRL

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi32 min S 4.1 G 7 75°F 1014.6 hPa (+0.7)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi32 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 68°F1 ft1012.3 hPa (+0.0)
AGCM4 21 mi44 min 70°F 66°F1013.9 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi44 min 73°F 1012.7 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 43 mi44 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 73°F 1012.4 hPa54°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi39 minWSW 510.00 miFair75°F51°F43%1013.9 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi36 minW 510.00 miA Few Clouds73°F52°F48%1014.2 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi37 minW 310.00 miFair76°F49°F39%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W3SW5W5W3CalmW3W4W5W3W3W4W5SW8W6W3W9SW8SW8W6SW11
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1 day agoS3SW4SW5CalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmW4SW3SW3W3W5W4SW4SW5W9
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2 days agoSE5SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4SW6W7SW4W6CalmSW4SW4SW7SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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