Wednesday, April1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 7:59PM Wednesday April 1, 2020 3:21 AM EDT (07:21 UTC) Moonrise 11:23AMMoonset 2:10AM Illumination 58% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 940 Pm Edt Tue Mar 31 2020
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Cloudy. Scattered showers this evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202004010815;;382254 FZUS63 KDTX 010140 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 940 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure, 29.50 inches, will continue to track up the southeastern US coast Wednesday, while high pressure of 30.70 inches remains over northern Quebec. The central Great Lakes will remain in between these two systems through Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure, 30.20 inches, will then move over the central Great Lakes region Thursday and linger into late Friday. LCZ460-010815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
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location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 010415 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1215 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

AVIATION.

A subtle mechanism continues to lead to increased coverage of shower activity that is streaming into far Southeast Michigan from the east. Increased moisture advection at roughly 800mb or in the 3.5 to 6.5 kft agl layer has maintained moist adiabatic lapse rates which yields relatively high convective depths to increase. The saturated, deep mixed layer has been good for shower generation within persistent weakly cyclonic flow. Winds will remain light throughout the period. IFR cigs are still expected to develop later tonight, to low MVFR cig heights are expected through tonight with a diurnal rise in cig heights occurring midday Wednesday.

For DTW . Will maintain rain showers the first part of the period. Persistent stratus deck throughout the night, lifting and scattering eventually Wednesday evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less through early Wednesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 403 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

DISCUSSION .

Mid afternoon visible satellite imagery shows enough texture to suggest peak daytime warming remains capable of scattered shower production during late afternoon and early evening. Surface temperatures struggling to reach the lower 40s are helping destabilize the boundary layer that is deeply saturated with steep low level lapse rate up to around 800 mb. Water vapor satellite imagery and model analysis fields also still show the upper level trough axis lingering overhead which is providing at least a small amount of support for lift. The latest mesoscale/CAMs match up well with regional and global solutions that suggest the shower activity lasts toward mid evening before diminishing with the loss of daytime warming as the primary support. Clouds then hold firmly through the night which combines with cool cyclonic low level flow across the lakes for a small diurnal range in temperatures. Lows in the mid to upper 30s are on target by sunrise Wednesday.

There are some signs of improved sky condition in the consensus of deterministic model data for Wednesday, especially by afternoon. The incoming air mass with high pressure across northern Ontario becomes dry enough to deactivate Lake Huron which results in a decreasing cloud trend across SE Michigan. It may take until later in the day toward the Detroit area but all locations are expected to get enough sunshine to help high temperatures reach the upper 40s to lower 50s. These values are right around normal for April 1st.

The upper level ridge builds over the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday as part of a highly amplified large scale westerly flow. It is not quite a blocking pattern in the model data but no more than slowly progressive which maintains dry weather across Lower Michigan for the late week period. The center of surface high pressure maintains light and variable to light easterly wind across the region which does not produce much thermal advection. Guidance temperatures are clustered in a mostly narrow range and look reasonable in showing a gradual warming trend into the mid and upper 50s along with a cooler component near the shorelines.

The next chance of rain moves in Saturday as a short wave rounds the base of the trough over the Rockies and into the Midwest. The extended range models show the primary surface low ending up near Hudson Bay with a weak front strung out southward through the Great Lakes and Mississippi valley to the Gulf coast. A standard supply of Gulf moisture into the frontal zone along with weak forcing supports the mid chance POPs offered in the guidance for Saturday afternoon and night. The front brings slightly cooler air into the region for Sunday which is compensated for by a greater amount of sunshine compared to Saturday. High temperatures hold around 60 Sunday and have a chance to reach lower 60s to start next week as south wind develops ahead of the next low pressure system.

MARINE .

Light northerly winds will dominate through the rest of this week as the region remains between a high in northern Quebec and a low tracking along through the southeastern US. Expect some ebb and flow between northerly, northwesterly, and northeasterly tonight and Wednesday as the previously mentioned systems slowly slide east resulting in slight changes in the predominate wind direction over the central Great Lakes. Thursday high pressure will build in from the west reinforcing northerly flow. Winds will remain light and slowly rotate to northeasterly Friday and eventually to southeasterly Saturday as the high begins to move east of the region.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . BT MARINE . KDK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi81 min NNE 7 G 8.9 42°F 1014.9 hPa (+0.0)
AGCM4 21 mi51 min 41°F 38°F1013.8 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi51 min 39°F 1014 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 43 mi51 min N 8 G 8.9 38°F 1014 hPa36°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 49 mi81 min N 8.9 G 9.9 41°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi28 minN 49.00 miOvercast42°F37°F85%1014.5 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi25 minNNE 410.00 miOvercast41°F40°F100%1014.4 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi26 minN 07.00 miOvercast41°F40°F97%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N8N5N5N6NE8NE6N10NE74E7NE7N75E7NE6NE8N7N8N8NE5NE5N3N4
1 day agoW10W13
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NW6NW5NW4W3W4NE6CalmCalm
2 days agoSE8SE6SE5CalmS10SW14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.