Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Delton, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:01AMSunset 5:11PM Friday December 13, 2019 7:57 AM EST (12:57 UTC) Moonrise 6:40PMMoonset 9:22AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 537 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the day.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots veering northwest toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots late in the day. Cloudy with a chance of drizzle, snow showers and a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet late in the day.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Snow showers and drizzle likely. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the day. Cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots backing northeast late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet late in the day.
LMZ845 Expires:201912132115;;283116 FZUS53 KGRR 131037 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 537 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-132115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Delton CDP, MI
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location: 42.49, -85.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 131122 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 622 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

* Areas of fog possible tonight

* Drizzle and freezing drizzle possible on Saturday

* Lake-effect snow will bring light snow accumulations and slick spots on roads Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning

* Light snow possible early next week - mainly southern Michigan Monday into Monday night, then west of US 131 Tuesday night and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Thursday) Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

Low pressure will continue to slowly lift through Northern Michigan today, but a general troughing pattern will remain over West Michigan through early Saturday in response to upper energy pushing into the Northern and Central Plains. This will hold a weak frontal boundary roughly in the vicinity of Holland to Grand Rapids to Alma through this timeframe. This boundary has been identifiable on radar early this morning, and there could be a few flecks of drizzle under it, but the likelihood of anything impactful falling out of it is very low due to dry air in the low-levels.

Weak southerly flow this evening and early tonight will maintain higher dewpoints, especially for areas on the south side of the aforementioned boundary. After winds go near calm tonight, we may see some fog or freezing fog form before this boundary begins to slide southeast, and before northeast flow expands towards daybreak. Main area of concern is for areas south of the Lansing and east of Battle Creek. Impacts would be mitigated by temperatures in the low 30s.

Stronger low pressure system affecting the East Coast Saturday will help pull a cold front through Lower Michigan on Saturday. Low-level lift and influx of moisture along/behind this boundary per ARW/NAM/GFS look healthy enough to justify a mention of drizzle (maybe a little freezing drizzle as temperatures start to fall in the evening) before DGZ becomes at least semi-saturated. Potential for lake-effect snow showers ramps up late Saturday and Saturday night as thermal profiles cool and moisture depth increases. Still some concern on forecast soundings that moisture depth will not increase enough to well-saturate the DGZ, but it looks like enough to get at least some snow accumulation out of this. Looking for highest totals west of US-131 as usual, where we could see an inch or perhaps two before Sunday evening. There is strong consensus within Euro/GFS ensembles that even locations like Muskegon, Ludington and Holland will stay below 2 inches. Locations elsewhere should see an inch or less. One feature to watch that could help focus snowfall may be a weak boundary models show dropping southward through Lower Michigan Saturday night. This boundary will be a remnant from weak surface low pressure that forms over Northern Michigan/Wisconsin before it becomes absorbed by the larger system over the East Coast.

Still some uncertainty surrounding the track of a low pressure system during the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Latest deterministic Euro and Euro ensemble mean track the center of the low through eastern Ohio, which is just a little further north than the GFS (both deterministic and ensemble mean). Confidence is increasing a lot of our area will not see much directly from this system, but we could clip the southeast portion of the forecast area (south of I-94 and near/west of US 127) with a little bit of snow Monday into Monday night. Colder air funneling into West Michigan behind the system (especially near/west of US 131) may end up being more impactful as lake-effect snow becomes likely Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures will also plummet again, with highs on Wednesday falling back into the 20s.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 624 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

With the front largely stalled over eastern Lake Michigan today, the low clouds, which follow the front, are expected to stay north and west of our CWA TAF sites through early this evening. It's even possible breaks in the clouds will get as far west GRR late this morning into this afternoon. I have to admit, with MKG being so close to the front it is more than possible MKG could end up in and out of the MVFR cigs today into this evening. No matter what happens with that, surface winds will be light from the south.

Tonight the front tries to start moving east but before that happens fog, possibly dense, is more than possible south of I-96 and east of US-131. The NAMNEST fog forecast has below 1/4 mile visibility's over most of or central and eastern CWA after midnight. Given the light winds and moist air in place, that would make sense. So, I have IFR cigs/visibility's in all but the GRR and MKG TAFs after midnight. The fog will lift behind the front,


MARINE. Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

Southwest winds will continue to weaken through the morning and today in the wake of low pressure lifting through Northern Michigan. This will allow wave heights to decrease through the morning. Fairly light winds and low wave heights are then expected tonight through Saturday morning before the next wave event ramps up.

Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed again by Saturday evening as strong northwest flow prompts waves to build into the 4 to 7 foot range. These waves should last well into Sunday before subsiding.

Beyond that, another round of strong winds and high waves looks to occur Tuesday into Wednesday as strong west winds and cold air rush in on the backside of low pressure passing to our east.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

Outside of ice jams, water levels will undergo a steady falling trend through the weekend as no significant precipitation is expected. Maple Rapids will continue to run above bankfull during this period, but levels will drop.

The impact of recent cold temperatures has been the start of ice freeze up processes on some of our rivers, specifically parts of the Muskegon River and the White River. A small ice jam has formed south of Big Rapids along the Muskegon River, as near-zero temperatures Wednesday night caused rapid ice growth. With warmer temperatures expected for the next several days, water levels should resume a downward trend in this area.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . HLO DISCUSSION . HLO AVIATION . WDM HYDROLOGY . HLO/AD MARINE . HLO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 46 mi64 min S 11 G 12 38°F 35°F1014.1 hPa31°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 46 mi48 min SSE 8 G 9.9 39°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 63 mi58 min SSE 2.9 G 7 37°F 1015.2 hPa (-1.4)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 70 mi38 min SW 12 G 12 39°F 1015.5 hPa34°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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NW24
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G29

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
W K Kellogg Airport, MI16 mi65 minS 810.00 miOvercast35°F28°F76%1016.5 hPa
Kalamazoo/Battle Creek International Airport, MI18 mi65 minS 510.00 miOvercast35°F26°F70%1016.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTL

Wind History from BTL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE7S10S13
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S12S9S8S10S10S9S10S8S9S8
1 day agoSW16
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W13W10W7SW5S4S3CalmS3S3S5SE3CalmSE6SE5SE7SE9
2 days agoNW11
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NW9NW6W15
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G26
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W9SW13SW9SW9SW9SW9SW10SW11SW13SW11W13W16
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SW13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.