Wednesday, February19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Delton, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 6:20PM Wednesday February 19, 2020 8:11 AM EST (13:11 UTC) Moonrise 5:15AMMoonset 2:27PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 405 Am Est Wed Feb 19 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Early this morning..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Freezing spray. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny with a slight chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely. Freezing spray. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Freezing spray. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
LMZ845 Expires:202002192100;;765159 FZUS53 KGRR 190905 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-192100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Delton CDP, MI
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location: 42.49, -85.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 191137 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 637 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Update/Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 306 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

- Brief cold snap today through Friday morning

- Low chances for snow into Thursday, mostly near Lake Michigan

- Chance for light rain or snow Sunday night into Monday

UPDATE. Issued at 638 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

I have updated my short term forecast to have mostly sunny skies over most of the area today. It would seem there is enough dry air and subsidence between the departing cold front and the approachingupper trough with the coldest air moving that will move over the area tonight, so that there will not be as much cloud cover and snow flurries around as I had first through. This clearing is seen nicely in the 950 to 900 mb omega field on the NAM and RAP models for the daytime hours of today. The clouds over northern Lower Michigan keep dissipating as they go down slope from northern Michigan to central Lower Michigan as seen on our night time enhanced IR image loops.


DISCUSSION. (Today through next Tuesday) Issued at 306 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

- Brief cold snap today through Friday morning -

First shot of cold air is arriving behind a frontal passage that occurred close to midnight. Another surge of cold air will arrive late tonight and early Thursday morning as a shortwave trough drops through the area.

Temperatures at commute time this morning should be in the teens to near 20. Wind gusts should be dropping off around this time, keeping wind chills in the single digits above zero. We are expecting to see some sunshine today, especially inland. This will help to counter cold air advection and boost high temperatures this afternoon into the 20s. High temperatures behind another shot of cold air on Thursday look to only reach near 20.

Overnight lows will be quite chilly the next few nights. Lows tonight/Thursday morning should reach the single digits and teens, based on a forecast for cloud cover to spill inland from the lake. Will have to watch potential for areas well inland (Mt Pleasant, Lansing, Jackson) to clear, which could warrant dropping forecast mins further. Similar temperatures are expected Thursday night/Friday morning. Wind chills both mornings look to range between -5 and 10, with time to frostbite above 30 minutes.

- Low chances for snow into Thursday, mostly near Lake Michigan

Frontal boundary will continue to drop through Southern Lower Michigan early this morning. Radar is picking up on some light returns along and behind the front, but only flurries are falling. No impact is expected this morning.

Potential for snow showers today is low, and looks confined to areas closer to the lakeshore. Forecast soundings from over Lake Michigan and inland show very shallow moisture depth and low inversion heights of about 3500 ft. Moisture that is present is located within the DGZ however, but this may not amount to anything more than flurries and clouds near/west of U.S. 131.

Potential for lake effect snow looks a little better behind the next frontal passage, with higher inversion heights (4000-5000 ft) and better moisture depth tonight and Thursday morning. Areas near/west of U.S. 131 stand the best chance to see light accumulations, but there is little support within deterministic and ensemble model data to see more than an inch. Similar to tonight, we may also see a quick but light burst of snow or flurries for inland areas coincident with the frontal passage.

- Chance for light rain or snow Sunday night into Monday

Dry weather and warmer temperatures are expected Friday through Sunday. Low pressure lifting through the Ohio or Tennessee Valleys may clip the area with light rain or snow Sunday night and Monday. There is currently better consensus with the Euro and GEM for the more southerly of these tracks, which would favor light rain changing to light snow.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 638 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

Skies have for the most part cleared and I expect only partly cloudy skies today. Actually the latest NAM4km run does suggest most clouds in the 3000 ft to 3500 ft layer to develop in the 12z to 15z time frame but then after 15z the moisture pulls out and skies will for the most part be clear until evening. Winds will be lighter than yesterday, mostly Northwest 10 to 15 knots.

Tonight the coldest air moved overhead and that will bring a period of light snow showers to the western TAF sites in the 06z to 12z time frame, likely MVFR cigs too. The more eastern TAF sites may seem some VFR cigs after 06z tonight. At this point the snow showers will be more like flurries than snow showers. Even so if your going to fly into the TAF sites near Lake Michigan, be aware of the chance of IFR conditions after 06z from snow showers.


MARINE. Issued at 306 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

Winds kicked backed up from the northwest behind a frontal passage overnight. Waves will stay in the 3 to 6 foot range through the early afternoon. Conditions along the lakeshore look to remain modestly unsettled through the end of the week, however. Another round of 3 to 5 foot waves is expected late tonight into Thursday behind another frontal passage. Winds and waves will increase again Friday through Saturday night as the Central Great Lakes becomes sandwiched between low pressure over Hudson Bay and strong high pressure sliding through the Tennessee Valley. This latter round looks to be the strongest, and has potential to build waves into the 4 to 8 foot range from South Haven northward.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

Brief cold snap today through Friday morning will be very favorable for ice formation on rivers, especially as high temperatures only peak near 20 degrees by Thursday. Lows each night will fall into the single digits and teens. Temperatures will warm for the weekend, with potential to exceed 40 degrees for highs each day. Little to no precipitation is expected during this timeframe.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ845>849.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for LMZ844.



UPDATE . WDM SYNOPSIS . HLO DISCUSSION . HLO AVIATION . WDM HYDROLOGY . HLO MARINE . HLO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 46 mi60 min 23°F 33°F1031.6 hPa15°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 46 mi42 min NW 15 G 18 24°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 70 mi32 min NNW 13 G 18 21°F 1035.1 hPa12°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
W K Kellogg Airport, MI16 mi19 minNW 410.00 miFair16°F8°F71%1033.8 hPa
Kalamazoo/Battle Creek International Airport, MI18 mi19 minN 710.00 miFair17°F8°F68%1034.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTL

Wind History from BTL (wind in knots)
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W15NW11W12W14W10W10W9W9W10W9NW14
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1 day agoE7E8E7E8SE9
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E9E7SE9SE11--SE12SE10SE7
G17
S8S10SW10W13W18
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G28
2 days agoSW5W7W7W8SW7W5W7W10W11W9W4W4W4CalmCalmN3NE5NE5NE5NE5E4E6E4E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.