Thursday, October1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Old Mill Creek, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 6:33PM Thursday October 1, 2020 9:42 AM CDT (14:42 UTC) Moonrise 6:55PMMoonset 6:22AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 906 Am Cdt Thu Oct 1 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm cdt this afternoon through Friday morning...
Rest of today..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Chance of waterspouts through the day. Showers late in the morning. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the evening, then easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight backing northwest early in the morning. Chance of showers through around midnight. Chance of waterspouts through the night. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet late in the evening, then subsiding to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Friday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of waterspouts. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet late in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:202010012200;;645604 FZUS53 KMKX 011406 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 906 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-012200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Mill Creek, IL
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location: 42.49, -87.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 010851 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 351 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

SHORT TERM. (Issued 345 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020)

Today through Friday:

Today will primarily feature a cold front sliding south from the north. With the upper level trough overhead and plenty of midlevel moisture the front will bring enough forcing for shower chances across much of the CWA though the best chance are expected to be in the northeastern half of the CWA. As this front slides through the region during the day winds may become a bit a bit breezy with winds shifting to the north/northwest. While the effects of this front will not be felt immediately temperatures tonight will tank tonight under clearing skies with lows likely falling to the low to mid 30s across the CWA. This has led us to issue a Frost Advisory for the high potential for widespread frost across much of the CWA.

Into Friday we will see mostly quiet but cool conditions. Winds will calm overnight and remain mostly calm throughout the day with dry conditions expected.

Kuroski

LONG TERM. (Issued 345 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020)

Friday night through Wednesday:

The next shortwave trough will begin sliding through the Upper Midwest Fri nt with the more amplified trough swinging across southern WI Sat nt. The wave will finally clear southeast WI Sun eve. The rain chances with this wave will increase from southwest to northeast through southern WI Saturday afternoon, persist through Sat nt, then diminish Sunday. There is still some uncertainty in coverage and timing, but models have been fairly consistent with this signal.

The 850mb temps will be -2 to -3C Fri nt and winds will be light. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the lower to mid 30s for much of southern WI once again Fri nt, so another frost advisory may be needed. The thing to watch will be cloud cover from the approaching system which would prevent us from getting that cold.

The clouds and rain will keep temperatures somewhat moderated in the upper 30s and lower 40s Saturday night, but clearing skies and light winds with high pressure over the region Sunday night will lead to patchy frost once again.

Low pressure tracking across central Canada and Hudson Bay will drag our next trough through WI Tuesday morning. Southerly winds and warm air advection ahead of this trough will give us high temps around 60 on Monday and the upper 60s Tuesday. A couple of the models squeeze out light showers in southern WI along the front Tue morning, but the better chance will be to our north.

One more shortwave trough is expected to dig through the Upper Midwest Tuesday night into Wednesday which could bring another chance of showers to the area. It looks like we could see a period of drier and warmer weather heading into next weekend as the upper level ridge briefly moves overhead.

Cronce

AVIATION. (Issued 345 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020)

The period will start off in VFR with clouds slowly pushing in from the north. However as the front approaches early this morning CIGS will fall to MVFR. This will for the most part be fairly brief with MVFR CIGS expected through the morning but lifting in the afternoon. In the afternoon and for the remainder of the TAF period expect VFR conditions. Otherwise we could see a few showers across parts of the region through the morning hours in association with the front with winds turning from the west/northwest to the north/northwest as the front

Kuroski

MARINE. (Issued 345 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020)

A cold front will continue to move south and push across the rest of the lake today. Gusty west winds ahead of the front will turn to the north after frontal passage. At this time, gusts are expected to remain below gale force, peaking around 30 knots. Unseasonably cool air moving across the relatively warmer waters of the lake may trigger a few waterspouts on today and tonight.

We have issued a Small Craft Advisory for our entire nearshore for gusty north winds this afternoon. We continued the Small Craft Advisory overnight for increasing wave heights from North Point Light to Winthrop Harbor as waves are expected to reach 3 to 5 feet

Otherwise high pressure will approach the western Great Lakes tonight and Friday resulting in decreasing north to northwest winds. Winds will be mostly light and southerly Saturday prior to next system coming through Sunday that should bring northerly winds back.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Frost Advisory . WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066- WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 . 3 AM Friday to 9 AM Friday.

LM . LM . Small Craft Advisory . LMZ643-LMZ644 . 1 PM Thursday to 7 PM Thursday.

Small Craft Advisory . LMZ645-LMZ646 . 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM Friday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 11 mi43 min W 7 G 13 48°F 1013.9 hPa (+1.7)
45187 11 mi63 min NW 9.7 G 14 48°F 46°F1 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 13 mi103 min WNW 7 G 12
45174 30 mi23 min WNW 12 G 16 51°F 60°F2 ft1014.8 hPa45°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 36 mi33 min WNW 8.9 G 12 49°F
FSTI2 40 mi103 min W 12 52°F
45013 43 mi43 min WNW 9.7 G 12 47°F 43°F1 ft1013.7 hPa (+1.6)
OKSI2 44 mi103 min N 1.9 G 5.1 54°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi43 min WNW 12 G 14 51°F 45°F
CNII2 48 mi28 min WNW 5.1 G 12 54°F 42°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi50 minWNW 9 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy51°F44°F77%1014.2 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL8 mi48 minWNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F42°F74%1013.9 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI21 mi50 minWNW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F44°F80%1014.3 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI22 mi48 minNW 810.00 miFair47°F43°F90%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KENW

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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W8NW8W7W7W7W7W5W5W5W6W6W5W6W7W7NW9
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1 day agoW8W8W11SW14
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W11SW12SW9SW6SW7SW6SW5SW6SW5SW5SW5SW6SW6SW7SW6SW6SW12W10W8W14
2 days agoSW7SW7W8SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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