Friday, January22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Farmington Hills, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 5:36PM Friday January 22, 2021 11:42 AM EST (16:42 UTC) Moonrise 12:48PMMoonset 2:25AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0057.000000t0000z-201115t1715z/ 1150 Am Est Sun Nov 15 2020
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. However a gale warning remains in effect. Boaters and mariners should continue to refer to the latest marine weather messages for the latest information. Lat...lon 4172 8347 4173 8345 4173 8350 4177 8350 4196 8328 4202 8323 4202 8324 4205 8319 4205 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 time...mot...loc 1648z 233deg 42kt 4197 8303
LCZ423 Expires:202011151659;;883356 FZUS73 KDTX 151650 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1150 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 LCZ423-LEZ444-151659-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farmington Hills, MI
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location: 42.51, -83.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 221043 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 543 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

AVIATION.

Arctic air will overspread Se Mi today in the wake of an early morning cold frontal passage. This airmass has activated the lakes and resulted in some scattered light snow showers/flurries with sporadic MVFR based ceilings. The depth of the mixed layer will increase during the course of the day under the low level cold air advection. This will support a predominate low end VFR based strato cu field into the evening. Convective cloud depths will still be farily shallow this afternoon, inhibiting higher intensity snow showers. Decent post frontal mixing will also sustain west- northwest wind gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range today.

For DTW . Wind directions are forecast to undergo some slight backing from 310-320 degrees this morning toward 290 degrees early this afternoon. There is the potential for some late day overachievement on mixing depths to push ceilings above 5000 ft. Confidence on this is not high enough to carry in the TAF attm.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 feet or less today.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 356 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

DISCUSSION .

Ongoing passage of an arctic cold front sweeping across SE MI has resulted in the production of widely scattered light snow across the Flint up into the Tri-Cities with embedded snow showers over the Thumb, and is working to drop temperatures down into the 20s, while lake enhanced moisture continues to promote mainly overcast skies following the passage of the front. This front will continue to sweep from northwest to southeast through the remainder of the morning, completely exiting SE MI over the next couple of hours. Low-level potential instability has quickly waned ahead of the frontal boundary with convective depths struggling to peak above 7kft. This has limited any meaningful snowfall production, with this trend expected to continue through the morning hours through the morning commute. Still can't rule out a little overachievement along the front through the morning hours, especially in and around the Thumb, which could result in a few-tenths of new accumulation, but expecting this outcome to remain limited in nature. Otherwise, caa will be ongoing throughout the day as h850 temperatures drop down to a cold -18C by 00Z Saturday. This will mute any diurnal temperatures trends for the afternoon for highs stay capped in the low to mid 20s. Dry air to also gradually filter in behind the front (PW around .10 inch by 18Z Friday) which will end any lingering lake effect snow chances with the exception of the northern Thumb, where better moisture quality and depths hold through the afternoon. An additional half-inch of new accumulation will be possible with lingering lake effect snow showers.

Surface high pressure and deep layer subsidence to work into the Great Lakes region starting early Saturday and combined with the dry air in place, should help to clear residual cloud cover with anticyclonic flow maintaining northwest flow across the state. This will bring the likely chance to see overnight temperatures plummet into the lower teens early Saturday morning, especially with any early cloud clearing trends. Given the light wind in place, this places wind chills in the low single-digits overnight. Otherwise, temperatures to warm back into the 20s for a high while high pressure provides the chance to see periods of sunshine throughout the day.

There exists a couple of opportunities to see accumulating snowfall through the extended forecast period. The first throughout Sunday, where return flow from the departing high pressure system will result in the passage of an elevated warm frontal boundary with modest system relative isentropic ascent holding over the state through the morning and early afternoon hours. Forcing at this time looks modest with this weaker system, where around an inch of accumulation looks reasonable at this time.

The second system of perhaps greater interest will generate as a Pacific Wave out of Baja California ejects into the TX/OK and interacts with a baroclinic zone. A developing low pressure system will push northeast into the Ohio Valley late Monday into early Tuesday. The ECMWF and the vast majority of the EPS suite has locked in on this solution over the past 24 hours, where the GEFS is just now converging on this solution with the latest 00Z run, placing the cyclone center over the Ohio Valley by 00Z Tuesday, alongside the EPS SLP average. If this pans out, Cluster Phase Space Analysis of similar solutions show some interesting trowal dynamics over southern Michigan, where a strong u component of the wind lines up around Metro Detroit down into the Ohio Valley -- highlighting an area of interest where strong forcing and efficient moisture transport line up. The WPC extended winter weather outlook highlights this exact area, showing a 30-50 percent chance of exceeding .25 inch liquid equivalent of snow. Overall, noted convergence of the GEFS solution with the EPS combined with support from probabilistic CPC data is increasing confidence to see accumulating snow chances in the late Monday to Tuesday timeframe.

MARINE .

An arctic front has just about finished sliding through the Central Great lakes early this morning. Solid northwest wind gusts up around 30 knots expected through the day across Lake Huron, as much colder air filters in, leading to snow squalls. These enhanced low level convergence areas over Lake Huron will also likely produce brief gusts to gales throughout the day as well, but duration and coverage does not warrant a Gale Warning. Despite the northwest duration, the unstable low level profiles will be conducive for good wave growth over the southern Lake Huron basin, and waves of 4 feet or greater will likely clip the northern and eastern Thumb nearshore waters through at least Friday night. Small craft advisories remain in effect. Freezing spray over the open waters of Lake Huron will also be possible today into tonight.

Northwest flow will persist on Saturday, but winds will slowly decrease as the airmass begins to modify, with light and variable winds setting up Saturday night as a ridge axis slides through.

Light southerly flow expected on Sunday as weak low pressure tracks through the northern Great Lakes through Sunday night. A much stronger low will lift into the Ohio Valley on Monday, and will lead to increasing easterly/onshore flow, and small craft advisories may be needed by Monday evening, as there is a good chance of snow overspreading Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair, and possibly far southern lake Huron.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ422-443.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for LHZ421-441-442.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . SC DISCUSSION . AM MARINE . AM

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 25 mi43 min NW 6 G 9.9 25°F 1013.9 hPa (+3.1)
AGCM4 44 mi55 min 27°F 37°F1012.4 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi43 min W 17 G 20 28°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 57 mi55 min WNW 8 G 17 28°F 1013.5 hPa13°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI9 mi48 minNW 64.00 miLight Snow26°F21°F81%1013.9 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI12 mi50 minWNW 119.00 miLight Snow22°F14°F71%1013.6 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI18 mi50 minNW 12 G 1710.00 miOvercast27°F17°F66%1013.8 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI19 mi50 minWNW 1110.00 miLight Snow27°F17°F66%1014.1 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI22 mi50 minWNW 13 G 198.00 miLight Snow30°F16°F56%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVLL

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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W6SW9SW6SW6SW5SW4W4NW6N8NW4W6W7W8W5W4CalmSW4W6W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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