Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Farmington Hills, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 9:11PM Monday July 13, 2020 8:28 AM EDT (12:28 UTC) Moonrise 12:26AMMoonset 1:32PM Illumination 44% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 520 Pm Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
.a strong Thunderstorm approaching the waters... The areas affected include... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 520 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. This Thunderstorm was located near north cape, moving northeast at 25 knots. The strong Thunderstorm will be near, north cape around 530 pm edt. Luna pier around 535 pm edt. Bolles harbor of refuge around 545 pm edt. Monroe harbor around 550 pm edt. Detroit beach around 555 pm edt. Woodland beach around 600 pm edt. Stony point around 605 pm edt. Estral beach around 610 pm edt. Other locations impacted by the strong Thunderstorm include woodland beach, stony point, estral beach and detroit beach. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. This a strong Thunderstorm will likely produce winds up to 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when this storm reaches the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before the storm arrives. && lat...lon 4172 8347 4173 8345 4173 8350 4179 8348 4196 8332 4196 8328 4198 8328 4205 8318 4203 8314 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341
LCZ423 Expires:202007102215;;643212 FZUS73 KDTX 102120 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 520 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 LCZ423-LEZ444-102215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farmington Hills, MI
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location: 42.51, -83.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 131000 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 600 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

AVIATION.

The TAF sites managed to avoid most of the low VFR cloud overnight, but the northern sites are starting to see some low-coverage stratocumulus pockets work through. Broke-out AM lower cloud heights into north/south divisions given the slightly more elevated nature of the west-east propagating southern canopy. Generally expect coverage to increase to BKN during the day after the establishment of the mixed layer allowing for cumulus bases in the 5-7 kft range. Northerly winds remain below 10 knots before veering southerly overnight with the eastward translation of the dominant surface high.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Medium for ceiling at or below 5000 ft today.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

DISCUSSION .

Lake effect stratus/widely scattered showers will linger early this morning over the Thumb region as vorticity lobe pivots through the area and enhances lift in the region a bit. This feature will shift east/southeast by mid morning with any remaining shower activity ending. Stratus will then mix into a scattered cu/strato-cu field during the course of the day. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below average with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s as the cooler air associated with this disturbance linger most of the day.

Shortwave ridging will expand into the area on Tuesday and lead to the beginnings of the next warming trend as highs reach the mid to upper 80s. With surface high pressure prevalent over the area, expect just scattered diurnal cumulus again with humidity levels remaining in check.

Weak shortwave energy will eject into the area by Tuesday night as the shortwave ridge axis shifts just east of the region. This will bring an increasing, but still small, chance of showers to the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday with a few thunderstorms also possible. A strong shortwave will progress into the area Wednesday night and bring the best chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area this forecast period with this activity possibly lingering into Thursday. Severe weather is not much of a concern at this point as a instability remains marginal (especially given the diurnal timing of this disturbance).

After the passage of this well organized shortwave, precipitation chances look pretty meager the remainder of the forecast as upper ridging builds back into the region. Just widely scattered showers and/or thunderstorms can be expected as heat/humidity build into the weekend with this ridging while future shortwaves are largely steered north of the region around its periphery.

The building upper ridge will bring a return of hot weather to the area form late this week into the weekend as highs reach 90 again by Friday and the lower 90s Saturday/Sunday. By this time, humidity levels will become increasingly stifling as well with heat indices perhaps pushing 100F again by Sunday.

MARINE .

Weak and broad high pressure will continue to build across the region for the early week period. Weak moisture convergence in northerly flow may promote isolated showers across the Lake Huron nearshore waters and portions of Saginaw Bay the remainder of tonight, with otherwise dry conditions anticipated through at least early Wednesday. The northerly flow will be gusty at times around 20 knots the remainder of tonight, especially across the open Lake Huron waters and nearshore waters from Port Austin to Port Sanilac where choppy waves of 2-4 feet will also be likely. The short duration of this activity will preclude the mention of a Small Craft Advisory at this time. Winds and waves will then decrease today and into Tuesday as lake breeze flow takes over with high pressure overhead.

HYDROLOGY .

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase on Wednesday with a strong likelihood by Wednesday night as a vigorous shortwave disturbance tracks through the area. Total rainfall from this system looks to reach half an inch in many locations with localized spots possibly receiving an inch. These amounts will not cause any notable flooding, but may lead to localized minor flooding or ponding of water in low lying or poorly drained areas.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . KK DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . IRL HYDROLOGY . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 25 mi88 min NW 2.9 G 6 66°F 1014.2 hPa (+1.3)
45147 - Lake St Clair 36 mi88 min N 7.8 G 9.7 74°F1 ft1011.8 hPa (+1.0)
AGCM4 44 mi58 min 64°F 72°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi88 min NNE 7 G 8.9 69°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 57 mi58 min N 1.9 G 6 68°F 61°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI9 mi33 minNNW 310.00 miFair66°F59°F82%1014.9 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI12 mi35 minNW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F60°F81%1013.5 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI18 mi35 minVar 310.00 miFair68°F59°F73%1013.9 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI19 mi35 minNNW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F57°F71%1014 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI22 mi35 minNNW 510.00 miFair69°F60°F73%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVLL

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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NW6N6NW7NE4NE7E6E3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3
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2 days agoSW8S6SW7NW8CalmSW14
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W3CalmS5S3SE4CalmCalmNW3NW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.