Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hunt, NY

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 4:39PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 8:33 AM EST (13:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:51PMMoonset 5:38AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Expires:201912101000;;124496 Fzus51 Kbuf 100543 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1231 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez040-041-101000- Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 1231 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late Wednesday night...
Overnight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. Showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers in the morning, then scattered snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 10 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening, then snow showers likely overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
LEZ041


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hunt, NY
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location: 42.52, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 101153 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 653 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front will sweep across the Eastern Great Lakes this morning, sending temperatures tumbling to around the freezing mark by late this afternoon. Gusty southwest to west winds will relax some this afternoon and evening . and scattered snow showers across the region becoming concentrated to the southeast of the lakes tonight. These lake effect snow showers will then lift towards Buffalo and Watertown areas in a singular band Wednesday morning, before again dropping southward to areas southeast of the Lakes Wednesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Mild temperatures are found across the central and eastern portions of the region this early morning . as a cold front continues to push eastward across WNY. This cold front is associated with a storm system that is deepening as it crosses central Quebec this morning.

Aloft, an upper level trough has reached the Great Lakes region, and this feature will maintain below normal temperatures starting later today . and then through mid-week.

As this surface low continues to deepen across Central Quebec today, westerly winds will continue to gust to around 40 mph . and then as the low pushes farther from our region later this morning and afternoon . a relaxing pressure gradient will allow for a decrease in winds.

Moisture is limited along the front, and regional radars display very little as far as precipitation goes. Have diminished PoPs this morning, keeping highest chances to the northeast of the lakes, where a little lake moisture may be enough to bring a few light rain showers . that will transition to snow as the cold air deepens. Lake effect snow will not begin until later today.

Snow accumulation with the front should be little to none, with a few ridge tops receiving a fresh coating of snow, while lower elevations with the ground still wet and warm, remaining bare. A few icy spots will be possible on pavement late this afternoon as we cool towards the freezing mark . and the sun sets.

Lake effect snow will begin off Lake Erie starting through the afternoon hours as temperatures at 850 hPa cool, lake inversion heights rise towards 6-8K and the snow dendritic growth zone lowers into a more saturated lower atmosphere.

This early evening there will be a focus of westerly flow along the Chautauqua Ridge. As lower level lift increases within a now saturated lower atmosphere a period of moderate snow is likely . especially through the evening hours. During this time, advisory level snows of at least 4 inches will be possible and a winter weather advisory for lake effect snow will be hoisted for Chautauqua, and also Cattaraugus Counties where the snow band could drop several inches over the western part of the county. Just past midnight the synoptic flow will back in response to another shortwave dropping into this long wave trough aloft . with the shortwave passing over the Western Lakes. As the lower level flow backs to southwesterly it will push the band of snow northward for the second half of the night. The band of snow may weaken some with this increases shear . but as southwesterly winds align over Lake Erie, we should see the band of snow again increase in intensity over the eastern end of Lake Erie towards dawn tomorrow morning.

Meanwhile a band of snow is also expected along the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario, and extending southeasterly inland across Wayne and Cayuga Counties. Upstream connection to Lake Huron on a westerly wind could enhance totals . with a narrow 2-4 inches of snow possible. Confidence is not as high as Lake Erie, as a subtle shift in the wind flow will effect the upstream Lake Huron connection. Off Lake Ontario the snowband is likely closer to the late evening hours, and will likely have less of duration over land before the synoptic flow backs, with the band of snow lifting northward late tonight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The main focus through the short term period will be lake effect snow on Wednesday. The frequent and rapid movement of the bands will keep accumulations relatively low, but brief heavy bursts of snow and winds gusting up to 35 knots will produce at least a moderate impact to travel with brief periods of very poor visibility. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued east of Lakes Erie and Ontario, more for the impact of the brief burst of heavy snow and blowing snow rather than total accumulations.

A mid level shortwave and associated clipper low will pass well north of our region through Ontario and Quebec Wednesday, with the trailing cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes during the afternoon. The clipper cold front itself will be moisture starved with little in the way of synoptic scale sensible weather. However, it will introduce a more favorable lake effect environment. Convergence along the advancing cold front will merge with pre- existing lake induced convergence over both lakes, resulting in intensifying bands of lake effect snow. Lake induced equilibrium levels will briefly rise to 12K feet with the passage of the clipper as moisture improves and a pool of cold air aloft crosses the eastern Great Lakes. A favorably deep mixed phase layer will be located within the cloud bearing layer, yielding dendritic growth.

Off Lake Erie .

A band of lake effect snow will move north across the Buffalo area during the early to mid morning Wednesday. Some shear and dry air in the boundary layer may limit the intensity of the band as it moves north, but it still may produce enough snow to impact morning travel. The band of snow will briefly make it all the way north to Grand Island and southern portions of Niagara County and western Orleans county during the late morning and midday. The band will then begin to drift back south and east and start to intensify with the approach of the cold front and associated improving environment for lake effect.

The band will then cross again the Buffalo metro area with a brief burst of moderate to heavy lake effect snow from an added boost of synoptic support from the front, and increasing lake induced instability. The band of heavy snow will then move onshore from Buffalo all the way down to Chautauqua County and push inland through the Southern Tier through the late afternoon. The band of snow will continue for a few hours across the western Southern Tier Wednesday evening before quickly weakening as inversion heights lower, shear increases, and moisture decreases with high pressure building over Lake Erie.

The fast pace of the snow band movement will greatly limit accumulations, even though the band of snow may be quite heavy. Accumulations Wednesday and Wednesday evening are expected to be in the 2-4 inch range assuming the band does not stall in any one spot for long. Even though amounts will be limited, if the brief burst of heavy snow materializes it would produce very difficult travel for a few hours. Winds will also gust to around 35 knots at this time, producing significant blowing and drifting snow.

Off Lake Ontario .

Expect a similar trend on Lake Ontario. The disorganized lake effect snow showers over the lake will push to the northeast end to near Kingston Ontario, possibly clipping Cape Vincent in northern Jefferson County Wednesday morning. The band of snow will then intensify during the early to mid afternoon over the Thousand Islands region as the front approaches and synoptic support improves.

This intensifying band of snow will then move southeast across Jefferson County, crossing the Tug Hill region during the evening. The band will reach maximum intensity during this time frame as the best lake parameters line up with a period of upslope flow across the Tug Hill. The band will continue to march steadily southeast overnight, with a WNW to ESE oriented band of weakening lake snow moving into southern Oswego County, and possibly clipping northeast Wayne and northern Cayuga counties. A few snow showers may also clip the south shore farther west overnight from eastern Niagara to Monroe counties as boundary layer flow veers, but accumulations will be minor and localized in this area.

Similar to Lake Erie, the short residence time of the band in any one location will limit accumulations. Expect 2-4 inches across the lower elevations of the eastern Lake Ontario region Wednesday and Wednesday night, with up to 6 inches across the Tug Hill Plateau. northeast Wayne and northern Cayuga counties may see a few inches overnight Wednesday night if the band makes it that far south. While amounts are not overly impressive, this band may produce very difficult travel for a few hours with heavy snow and 35 knot wind gusts producing significant blowing and drifting.

High pressure builds overhead Thursday with any lake snows in the morning quickly diminishing off both lakes. Any additional accumulations in the morning will likely be minor, with the best chances southeast Lake Ontario. This is where an additional inch or so could be found. Otherwise, expect one more cold day across the eastern Great Lakes with highs peaking in the 20s to around 30 areawide.

Thursday night, the surface high will drift off the New England coast. The onset of warm advection in the wake of the departing high will bring an increase in mid/high clouds, but any precipitation associated with the warm front will stay well north of our region. Dry weather will continue Friday. Ongoing warm advection will allow temperatures to climb into the 40s in most areas, with 30s limited to the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. A complex system will then cross our region this weekend. A southern stream trough will support low pressure developing over the Gulf coast Friday. The resulting low will move northward along the east coast late Friday through Saturday. This southern stream trough will phase with a northern stream trough moving towards the western lakes, allowing an expansive area of deep layer ascent to move north across our area late Friday night and Saturday. This will produce another round of rain areawide. There is a small chance the rain may start as a wintry mix across the North Country if precipitation begins early enough, otherwise this looks to be an all rain event as temperatures warm into the 40s on Saturday.

The northern stream portion of this phasing system will then cross the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday, producing additional chances of rain and wet snow as colder air moves back into the region. The latest 00Z GFS and ECMWF are more aggressive with precipitation Saturday night and Sunday, possibly supporting some snow accumulation, especially across higher terrain. Highs Sunday will be in the mid to upper 30s.

This system will move out into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday night and Monday. Colder air moving into the Great Lakes in its wake will support a chance of lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. For the 12Z TAFS, a cold front continues to push eastward across the TAF region with mainly VFR/MVFR ceilings. Precipitation has been very sparse along the front, and will only leave a VCSH northeast of the lakes where a little lake moisture may be enough to produce a few light showers . in the vicinity of KBUF and KART. Winds will continue to be gusty, with winds becoming westerly . with gusts up to 30 knots this morning.

On a west to northwest wind, lake effect snow showers will become favored along the southern shoreline and to the southeast of Lake Ontario . and off Lake Erie across KJHW. Here there will be IFR/MVFR flight conditions in snow. These snow bands will lift northwards towards KBUF and KART late tonight, and strengthen such that IFR flight conditions will become likely for KBUF and KART just past dawn Wednesday morning.

Outlook .

Wednesday . IFR within lake effect snow ENE of the lakes. Wednesday night and Thursday morning . IFR in lake effect snow to the SE of the lakes. Thursday afternoon . becoming VFR. Friday . VFR. Saturday . MVFR. Rain likely.

MARINE. A cold front will cross the Eastern Great Lakes this morning, with southwesterly winds becoming westerly . and maintaining small craft advisories on the Lakes and the Upper Niagara River. Winds will begin to relax later today . with winds falling below SCA levels on the Niagara River by late this morning, though white cap waves on the lakes will maintain SCA into tonight on Lake Ontario, and with a southwest wind on Lake Erie . SCA will remain through Wednesday night.

High pressure will then move across the lower Great Lakes Thursday and then into New England on Friday with lower winds and waves.

HYDROLOGY. Rainfall Monday through early Tuesday totaled a half to three quarters of an inch in areas where the rain fell the greatest based on area mesonets and surface observations. This rain and snowmelt has been handled by area creeks and streams . with just a few creeks in WNY (including Cayuga Creek) peaking in low action stage. Creeks and slower responding Black River will continue to slowly rise east of Lake Ontario today and tomorrow. The Black River at Boonville is forecasted to peak in low action Wednesday morning . and near action level at Watertown Thursday.

Based on this, we will continue to highlight creeks east of Lake Ontario and the Black River in the HWO for flooding risk. The most likely outcome remains action stage, but the situation continues to bear watching.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A period of low end gale force winds will develop Wednesday afternoon and evening on Lake Ontario. The strong onshore winds, high wave action, and high lake levels will bring an increased risk of lakeshore flooding along the Lake Ontario shore at the east end of the lake. A Lakeshore Flood Watch has been issued for Jefferson, Oswego, and northern Cayuga counties Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. This event will not be as significant as the Halloween night lakeshore flooding, but still may be high enough to result in some flooding in flood prone areas and more shoreline erosion.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ007-008. Lakeshore Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for NYZ005>007. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ006. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ010-011. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ019-020. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ012-085. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ020. Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for LOZ044-045-063>065. Gale Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ062. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ043- 044. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ042-045.



SYNOPSIS . Thomas NEAR TERM . Thomas SHORT TERM . Hitchcock LONG TERM . Hitchcock AVIATION . Thomas MARINE . Thomas HYDROLOGY . Thomas TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 52 mi51 min WSW 20 G 22 41°F 40°F1006.8 hPa22°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 56 mi57 min 42°F 1006.3 hPa
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 56 mi57 min 45°F 1004.1 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dansville, Dansville Municipal Airport, NY16 mi39 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy49°F39°F71%1006 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDSV

Wind History from DSV (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNW5NW5NW10N6NW6NW10N8NW6CalmCalmSE4CalmS5SE7SE7SE6E8S10SE9SE11SE7SE11SE9S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.