Monday, June1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Beverly Hills, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 9:05PM Monday June 1, 2020 11:41 PM EDT (03:41 UTC) Moonrise 3:13PMMoonset 2:39AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 950 Pm Edt Mon Jun 1 2020
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with light showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the southeast in the afternoon and evening. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202006020815;;611464 FZUS63 KDTX 020150 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 950 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure, 29.60 inches, tracks southeastward across Ontario Tuesday, sending a warm front through the central Great Lakes. The associated cold front then pushes through the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A diffuse pressure pattern then dominates the rest of Wednesday into Thursday before another cold front moves in on Friday. LCZ460-020815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beverly Hills, MI
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location: 42.52, -83.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 020253 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1053 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

AVIATION.

Elevated showers will end as forcing from shortwave passes southeast of the area tonight. Varying degrees of lower VFR to MVFR stratus will filter into the area behind this wave and persist (lower to some degree) into Tuesday. The next round of convection will hold off until after 06z Tuesday night by and large as MCS encroaches on the area by that time frame.

For DTW . Showers will end as the forecast begins with cigs closing in on 5kft late tonight into Tuesday. Next chance of shras/tsras will come after 06z Tuesday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for cigs at or below 5kft tonight, medium Tuesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 343 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

DISCUSSION .

Main focus for this forecast package centers on two periods of shower/thunderstorm potential, the first tonight, the second Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Total pattern change and airmass replacement will begin late this afternoon and during the early evening hours as wall of midlevel thetae washes anticyclonically into Southeast Michigan. The initial thetae surge, while substantial, is extremely shallow, limited to between 7.0 and 10.0 kft agl prior to 00Z. There is corroborating evidence within the most recent forecast soundings that supports some residual subsidence, at minimum, both between 5.0 to 7.0 kft agl and above the midlevel thetae advection at around 12.0 kft agl. Other than sustained UVVs that could be provided by an organized mulitcell cluster, difficult to really envision much in the way of rain coverage prior to this evening. The inherited forecast started PoPs after 21Z across the far north, and will leave alone to maintain some forecast continuity, otherwise looks more likely that rain will begin after 23Z for some northern areas. The outstanding questions for tonight remain . 1. shower/thunderstorm footprint tonight . 2. exact track of shower and thunderstorm activity. The overwhelming limiting factor for widespread coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity tonight will be meager instability. HREF guidance suggests that NIL MUCAPE will exist at 00Z this evening, only increasing to upwards of 500 J/kg after 7Z tonight. Forecast soundings are obvious with nothing more than moist adiabatic lapse rates between 10.0 and 25.0 kft agl. Driver mechansim for convection tonight will occur on the nose of a narrow ribbon of 750 mb moisture/thetae transport with some collocation to DCVA occuring directly in front of convective vorticity max. Thunderstorm activity over portions of Northeast MN late this morning was both surprising and impressive, occuring right on the nose of this moisture convergence. Fairly obvious this nose of midlevel moisture advection occurred out ahead of lagged upper level moisture which contributed to some early steep lapse rates. Models suggest better forcing pushing across the U.P and Northeast Wisconsin this afternoon before swinging southeastward directly into Southeast Michigan 3-6Z tonight. Latest regional mosaic trends does support this with a better focus across far northern Wisconsin. The net result is no changes to previous forecast reasonsing/thinking that brings elevated warm advection shower and thudnerstorm activity through areas north of I 69 during the late evening and early overnight. Depth of moisture aloft is adequate to support some rainfall totals of around 0.75 inch but system does remain progressive. Most likely place for this swath of preciptation appears to be Saginaw Bay through the Thumb down to the southern basin of Lake Huron. Forecast soundings and HREF paintball plots suggests a real struggle to measure rain in Metro Detroit. Extremely poor midlevel lapse rates with dry air and high static stability brings no severe weather threat tonight.

Surface warm front warm front lifting into the Straits and northern Lake Huron will allow for heat and humidity to build into Southeast Michigan Tuesday. Forecasted highs Tuesday in the middle 80s as ceiling on overachievement for temps appears to be limited. The reasons include, lingering clouds/haze into the early afternoon hours with moisture trapped below very active subsdence at 3.0-6.0 kft agl, and sharp limit on mixing depths do to strong capping inversion. There has been consistent model consensus for rock solid capping in place across all of Southeast Michigan through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Textbook cap with 850mb temperatures of up to 21.5C and CIN of up to 150 J/kg. What has changed in the 01.12Z solutions is that any potential for shallow surface cold front to slip southward prior to 00Z has been abandoned. Thus, no trigger exists for thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Important for two reasons: The first, MUCAPES are projected to develop to around 3000 J/kg which will support large hail/damaging wind threat with any thundestorms that develop. The second, with no surface boundary expected during the afternoon/early evening the threat for slow moving/stalled out deep convection heavy rainfall is less.

Forecast information is converging on a solution that brings best thunderstorm potential to Southeast Michigan between 5-12Z Wednesday. A mesoscale convective complex is expected to develop over portions of southern MN during the afternoon hours and push due eastward. Large scale forcing favorable for development will include height falls in advance of northern Plains trough axis and right entrance region dynamics to northern Great Lakes jetlet. High confidence in this forcing propagating due eastward which will bring wave of low pressure through Southeast Michigan/interacting with sagging cold frontal boundary. There does remain some uncertainty with coverage of thunderstorm activity Wednesday night that is being driven primarily by very narrow/nebulous deep midlevel moisture axis. Some forecast soundings remain capped. Regardless, the main narrative is the potential exists for severe weather Tuesday night. Primary threats will be large hail with steep 700-500mb lapse rates, and damaging winds particularly with any cold pool development. A unidirectional wind profile also supports a potential for a forward propating cold pool and MCS upstream across MN/WI that would be on a a trajectory for Southeast Michigan. Current forecast has Southeast Michigan in a Marginal designation in SWODY2. Keep informed with the latest forecast information as threat and timing information could change.

Precipitation chances will linger beyond 12Z Wednesday but any potential for deep thunderstorm activity is forecasted to push south of the state. A strong signal exists for sub 925mb thetaE content/instability to be shunted immediately south of the MI/OH state line. Latest Swody3 has a portion of the area under a Marginal designation for severe weather Wednesday. Suspect this will be fine tuned.

Flat upper level ridge will remain in place through the northern Great Lakes which will support mild but less humid conditions both Wednesday and Thursday. Highs are expected to reach the lower to middle 80s.

The next potential for shower and thunderstorm activity appears to be on Friday as a dynamic trough/shortwave is set to push into Lake Superior/Far western Ontario. Current timing suggests cold front passage through Southeast Michigan during peak heating which would bring an an attendant strong to severe thunderstorm risk.

MARINE .

Favorable marine conditions continue this afternoon and early evening ahead of an approaching low pressure system set to track southeastward across Ontario on Tuesday. The associated warm front moves into the western Great Lakes tonight, sending an area of showers and some thunderstorms across the central Lakes tonight into Tuesday morning. A lull in precip activity is then expected during the day Tuesday with breezy southwest winds. Chance for showers and storms then increases again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the cold front works through, with potential for strong to severe storms producing gusts in excess of 34 kt. Generally benign marine weather then dominates the late week with another opportunity for some showers and storms on Friday.

HYDROLOGY .

Showers increase coverage and intensity tonight with scattered thunderstorms also expected ahead of a warm front lifting over the central Great Lakes. The pattern is capable of locally heavy downpours capable of 0.5 to 0.75 inch totals mainly north of I-69.

After dry conditions Tuesday, a chance of thunderstorms returns Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with a wave of low pressure tracking along a slow moving cold front. Confidence is lower on the coverage of storms, however the potential exists for heavy rainfall with any thunderstorms that develop late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

The potential for flooding both tonight and Tuesday night into Wednesday starts out with ponding of water on poorly drained roads and other poor drainage areas. Minor rises in small creeks and streams are also possible.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . TF HYDROLOGY . CB

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 20 mi42 min SW 8.9 G 12 64°F 1019.3 hPa (-0.3)
AGCM4 39 mi54 min 62°F 55°F1018.3 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi102 min S 11 G 11 67°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 54 mi60 min 67°F 1017.6 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI4 mi46 minSW 67.00 miRain60°F54°F82%1019.6 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI14 mi49 minWSW 86.00 miLight Rain61°F51°F70%1019.3 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI14 mi49 minSSW 27.00 miLight Rain61°F53°F77%0 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI20 mi1.8 hrsSSW 69.00 miLight Rain66°F46°F50%1018.9 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI23 mi1.8 hrsSSW 712.00 miShowers in Vicinity67°F44°F44%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVLL

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W4SW4CalmCalmSW4SW4SW3SW8SW7SW7SW3
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1 day agoNE3NE3CalmCalmN5NW5NW4NW4N9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.