Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Beverly Hills, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:53AMSunset 5:01PM Saturday December 14, 2019 2:08 AM EST (07:08 UTC) Moonrise 7:34PMMoonset 10:10AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 1000 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots this evening becoming light and variable...then becoming north 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Cloudy. Areas of fog in the morning. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the southeast after midnight. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Cloudy with a chance of light snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201912140930;;748096 FZUS63 KDTX 140300 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1000 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Weak low pressure washes out over the north central Great Lakes into tomorrow morning. A stronger low pressure will move northeast across eastern US increasing the northwesterly pressure gradient across the lakes late Saturday into Sunday. Average pressure over the central Great Lakes will be around 29.50 inches during this time. High pressure, averaging 30.10 inches, moves in Sunday afternoon into Monday before a return to unsettled conditions later in the day on Tuesday. LCZ460-140930-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beverly Hills, MI
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location: 42.52, -83.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 140451 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1151 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

AVIATION.

Extensive mid level cloud will continue to funnel across the region overnight, downstream of a low pressure system tracking across the Ohio valley. Some increase in low level moisture will occur through the morning period, although greater near surface saturation now appears to remain south of the area. This process in combination with a light wind field may still support some degree of fog formation over the southeast Michigan airspace. Greater potential for MVFR to IFR restrictions will exist across the Detroit corridor and possibly PTK, with lack of greater moisture depth limiting fog density northward into FNT/MBS. Upstream observational trends and recent model guidance continue to suggest fog development versus stratus. Lingering fog lifts during the late morning period, perhaps offering a window for VFR conditions into the afternoon. Moisture will then increase from the west late in the day within colder west- northwest winds. This will introduce the possibility for light snow shower development in MVFR/IFR conditions Saturday night.

For DTW . Potential for fog formation Saturday morning remains, but confidence in visibility dropping below 1 mile is diminishing.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for cigs aob 5000 ft late tonight through Saturday afternoon. High Saturday night.

* Low confidence in visibilities 1/2SM or less and/or cigs of 200 ft less Saturday morning.

* High for ptype as snow Saturday night.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 400 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

DISCUSSION .

Several-day period of enhanced westerlies over the eastern Pacific now culminating as a synoptic scale trough buckles along the lead edge of the jet presently surging into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A diffuse surface trough oriented along the northern segment of the trough has supported widespread low clouds and fog over the western and northern Great Lakes throughout the peak heating period. Meanwhile, the surge of warm advection occuring ahead of tonight's cyclogenesis episode over the Southeast is funneling shallow moist air/fog northward through the Ohio Valley. Light/patchy fog will overspread the area tonight as wind becomes calm within the trough and cloud bases lower coincident with nocturnal stabilization. "Areas" of fog has been added to the forecast east of the glacial ridge as this area will be located along the western periphery of light southerly theta-e advection originating over the Ohio Valley. The primary concern for the overnight period then becomes dense fog potential early Saturday morning. Any precipitation will be high- based and exceedingly light given poor forcing and dry-mid-levels. Inability for sprinkles to effectively wet-bulb the column naturally introduces a low end patchy/transient freezing drizzle type of set up for locally colder places/surfaces/etc. Given that there will be zero shear in the boundary layer, any -fzdz will be disorganized, originate exclusively from high clouds, and will not pose any issues.

As the cyclone deepens over interior New England and lifts northeast, boundary layer flow over the Lower Peninsula will respond by backing to WNW through Saturday. Increasingly well-mixed flow will support a light gust component around 20 kts while temperatures stagnate in the low 30s beneath overcast skies. Energy embedded within developing zonal flow aloft will sweep through the central Great Lakes overnight Saturday providing favorable synoptic scale support for expanding lake effect snow showers. When considered along with NAM12 depictions of convergent boundary layer flow settling into the I-94/I-96 corridors and boundary layer growth to nearly 6kft (sufficient to generate dendrites within convection), the potential exists for light lake effect accumulations but any greater potential will be limited by modest overlake theta-e lapse rates topping out around 2-3C/KM.

Forecast complexity increases considerably for early next week and confidence drops off accordingly. NWP have characteristically bounced around the location of the polar low over northern Canada, its location sensitive to the behavior of and interaction with the adjacent closed high over northern Alaska. Further complicating matters will be the cyclonic wave break resulting from the developing New England cyclone which will force additional ridging into the high latitudes and introduce further uncertainty to the large scale pattern over Canada. Since both the CMC and NCEP ensembles are demonstrating sensitivity to the relatively low amplitude development sequence as it occurs at the interface of the incoming Pacific energy and the confluent wave guide anchored over Canada both will be sensitive to this process as it unfolds. The ECMWF likewise demonstrates some uncharacteristic waffling during this period as its solution space remains sensitive to the same factors. The 12z ECMWF provides a good illustration as 400mb PV analysis reveals that subtle changes in the flow result in greater wave separation (centered over the Dakotas) occuring Monday. The more progressive northern stream then suppresses the front to the south resulting in a muted frontal snow late Monday night or Tuesday morning. Surprisingly, the UKMET resides on the opposite end of the spectrum allowing snow to develop as early as Sunday night as the front lifts toward Michigan. An outcome ranging anywhere from 1 to 5 inches, highest near the Ohio border, is plausible attm. Amounts will be highly conditional on onset time which remains the greatest source of uncertainty at this time.

MARINE .

Relatively light southerly flow tonight on the south side of a low pressure system that will weaken as it moves east of Lake Superior and washes out into southern Ontario. Broad troughing will move over the Great Lakes this weekend leading to an uptick in west to northwesterly winds ushering in arctic air. The result will over some lake instability leading to winds that gradual increase late Saturday night and early Sunday morning with gusts to around 30 knots. Winds will then decrease into Sunday afternoon as high pressure begins to build into the region. This will lead to more favorable marine conditions into early next week with light winds and low waves. Next chance at unsettled marine conditions will be Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . JVC MARINE . AA

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 20 mi68 min Calm G 1 32°F 1009.5 hPa (-2.0)
AGCM4 39 mi56 min 32°F 39°F1008.3 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi68 min SE 2.9 G 2.9 37°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 54 mi56 min 35°F 1008.1 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI4 mi73 minN 07.00 miFair31°F30°F96%1009.1 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI14 mi75 minN 08.00 miFair30°F28°F96%1009.3 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI14 mi75 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist29°F26°F89%1008.9 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI20 mi75 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist32°F30°F92%1009.3 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI23 mi72 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist31°F30°F100%1009.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVLL

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S4S5S5S5S4S5S8S5S6S3S3S4S3S3SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S6S9S8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.