Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Twin Lakes, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 7:39PM Monday August 26, 2019 4:42 AM CDT (09:42 UTC) Moonrise 1:32AMMoonset 5:05PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 306 Am Cdt Mon Aug 26 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Early this morning..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Showers likely. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Today..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then veering southwest after midnight becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Showers likely through around midnight. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Chance of showers after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Tuesday..West wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday night..West wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning, then rising to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201908262100;;224619 FZUS53 KMKX 260806 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 306 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-262100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Twin Lakes, WI
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location: 42.52, -88.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 260806
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
306 am cdt Mon aug 26 2019

Discussion
Today and tonight... Forecast confidence is high:
an area of low pressure over northern missouri will lift
northeastward today, reaching southeast wisconsin by this evening.

Moisture will continue to increase ahead of this low, with
precipitable water values pushing 2 inches in the east by this
afternoon. Rounds of showers will continue ahead of the low
through the day. Not a lot of instability with this system, but
enough to leave a slight chance of thunder in the forecast.

Shower chances will decrease later this afternoon, but will hang
on into tonight as a cold front associated with a stronger low to
the north moves through. Given the timing of the front and
widespread cloud cover through the upcoming day, not expecting
there will be much instability for the front to work with when it
arrives. In fact, most models show any upstream storms weakening
as they approach the forecast area. Should see any lingering
showers depart by daybreak Tuesday.

Lowered high temps a few degrees from the previous forecast given
higher confidence in rain and cloud cover through much of the day
today. Temps will stay on the mild side through much of the night
tonight, but should drop a bit toward morning behind the front and
as clouds begin to clear out from the west.

Tuesday through Thursday... Forecast confidence is high.

A large mid level, closed circulation will linger over manitoba
and ontario, canada through the period. We'll be on the cyclonic,
but quite dry, southern periphery of that system. Model soundings
show an overall lack of any deep moisture that would support
light afternoon, diurnal shower activity. There is a decent
looking spoke of shortwave energy that moves through the upper
midwest Tuesday afternoon and evening, but it looks dry for now.

We'll see if that holds. A surge of colder air will arrive in the
wake of that shortwave, so Wednesday looks like our coolest day of
the week. We may not get out of the 60s... And that will have some
breezy west winds with it as well.

Friday and Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A weak surface cold front pushes through later Thursday and
Thursday night. This system looks pretty dry as well with ridging
pinching the front over southern wisconsin. It looks like most of
the associated rainfall will be to the north, closer to the parent
low, or south of wisconsin with the better convergence and
moisture.

On Saturday, ridging will have settled over much of the great
lakes. But, a wave will be passing just south of wisconsin and
could bring some light rain to areas closer to the wi il border later
Friday night through Saturday. The GFS keeps it dry, but the
ecmwf and gem show the rain getting into the south. For now, the
thunderstorm chances look nil.

Sunday and Monday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Ridging looks to take hold again, providing a dry stretch here.

Aviation(09z tafs)
Rounds of showers with a small thunder chance are expected through
the morning and into the afternoon. Should see a decrease in
shower coverage later this afternoon, but a chance for showers and
a few rumbles of thunder will linger into tonight as a cold front
moves through.

Widespread lower clouds are expected to move in from the
southwest this morning as low pressure approaches. These
conditions will likely persist into this evening, with some higher
ceilings possibly mixing in overnight into early Tue morning as
the cold front sweeps through and brings a drier airmass.

Could see some lower visibilities with the more moderate areas of
showers today.

Marine
Persistent southeast winds ahead of approaching low pressure will
build higher waves today, especially across western portions of
lake michigan. The timing of the small craft advisory today into
tonight still looks good. Advisories may be needed again for
Tuesday and Wednesday as strong low pressure well to the north
brings gusty westerly winds to the lake. The higher waves will
shift to eastern portions of the lake with this wind direction
change.

Beaches
Dangerous swimming conditions will continue to develop
tonight at lake michigan beaches, with all southern wisconsin
counties in a high swim risk by daybreak. Wave heights are
expected to build to 3 to 6 feet as southeast winds increase.

These conditions will continue into tonight, winding down late
evening and overnight from south to north as winds ease a bit and
become westerly.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Beach hazards statement from 7 am cdt this morning through late
tonight for wiz052-060-066.

Beach hazards statement through late tonight for wiz071-072.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 1 am cdt Tuesday for lmz646.

Small craft advisory from 7 am this morning to 1 am cdt Tuesday
for lmz644-645.

Small craft advisory from 7 am this morning to 7 am cdt Tuesday
for lmz643.

Today tonight and aviation marine... Ddv
Tuesday through Sunday... Davis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 24 mi42 min SSE 16 G 19 70°F 1012.9 hPa (-1.3)
45187 26 mi42 min SSE 12 G 18 73°F 72°F4 ft
45186 27 mi42 min ESE 12 G 16 69°F 72°F4 ft
45174 42 mi32 min ESE 12 G 16 72°F4 ft1010.7 hPa
45013 46 mi42 min SE 14 G 18 70°F 69°F5 ft1013.7 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI12 mi2.1 hrsE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F61°F89%1013.5 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi2.8 hrsSE 10 G 1710.00 miOvercast71°F62°F73%1013.6 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL22 mi47 minSE 58.00 miLight Rain67°F62°F84%1011.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUU

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E6SE9SE9
G14
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E8E8E5E5CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmNE3E5SE5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5E7SE9
G16
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E8E10E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNE4NE6E8E4E7CalmE6E9NE8E9E7NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.