Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Twin Lakes, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 250015 AAA AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 615 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

UPDATE.

There was dense fog over southeast WI late this afternoon, but the visibility improved as rain moved in. The rain quickly changed over to snow due to dynamic cooling and there are reports of nearly an inch in the Milwaukee area already. The radar is showing a lull in the precip after this first round. The next round will spread westward into southeast WI within the hour as another little shortwave moves through. There may be a period of dense fog once again with the precip lull.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS).

Late this afternoon, dense fog was widespread across southern WI. Visibilities improved as rain/snow spread in from the east early this evening. The rain is quickly changing to snow. The Milwaukee area picked up nearly an inch in just over an hour. There is a lull in t he snow moving into southeast WI per the latest radar, but expect that to fill back in within the hour. Another lull is expected toward morning for southeast WI, but light snow should continue over south central WI into late Saturday morning. IFR ceilings will persist through the night and likely through Saturday morning as surface low pressure tracks northward across Lake Michigan. Visibilities will jump between 1 1/2SM to 1/2SM as snow and drizzle come and go.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 202 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Tonight and Saturday . Forecast Confidence is medium to high.

The upper low over srn IL will track across lower MI on Sat, while the sfc low will deepen to 1007 mb as it moves slowly nwd over Lake MI tnt. The low will then track to Lake Huron for Sat afternoon. The negative tilt upper trough will send a vorticity maximum from lower MI and nw Ohio across srn WI late this afternoon and tnt followed by other vorticity lobes that will affect the region into Sat AM. A TROWAL and mid level frontogenesis will accompany the upper low across srn WI. Overall, a fairly good period of lift across the region tnt. Expanded the Winter Wx Advisory to the north and west but due to milder temps kept MKE County and nwd out of the advisory. 3-5 inches of snow accum for most of the advisory area and 1-3 inches elsewhere.

LONG TERM .

Saturday Night through Sunday . Forecast Confidence Medium.

As the low pressure system continues to move eastward through Sunday, the snow will be ending from west to east during the morning hours Sunday. On the backside of this system there is an area of descending positive vorticity maxima. The GFS and NAM has this area of positive vorticity advection (PVA) associated with a stronger clipper system that digs through the central US. While the ECMWF has this area of PVA trailing on the backside of the exiting low pressure system. The uncertainty this brings would be in the potential for another round of light snowfall. Flurries have been added to the grids to account for this chance of light snowfall.

Monday through Friday . Forecast Confidence Medium.

The active pattern through the week continues, as weak waves continue to move through the upper level flow. Guidance has come into some agreement over this extended period. A weak ridge will move through Tuesday which should bring a brief dry period Monday Night through Tuesday before the next wave moves through. An upper level shortwave will move through the flow into the Great Lake Region on Wednesday. Mid level moisture is never lost through this period, so light snowfall and flurries are possible Wednesday and Thursday. There is still uncertainty present for Thursday night through Friday on the next low pressure system. Guidance is clear on the southern portion of the upper level trough digging into the desert SW and becoming cut off from the flow late Thursday. The northern portion of this system has a secondary wave moving through that is being handled quite differently between models. GFS has the secondary northern portion of the wave strengthening and digging into the northern plains, which would bring the cut off southern low back into the flow. While the Euro and Canadian have the secondary wave staying father north in the Great Lakes Region, which is not effecting the southern cut off low. For now have kept lowers Pops in the forecast for Thursday Night through Friday. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows in the 20s throughout the week, due to the west to southwest winds.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS) .

Cigs will remain from 200-600 feet this afternoon through Saturday. Vsbys will range from 1/2-3SM this afternoon into Saturday morning due to fog and snowfall. Areas of MVFR Vsbys will linger into Saturday afternoon.

MARINE .

A Dense Fog Advisory continues over the southern two thirds of Lake MI until 03Z, which also includes the nearshore waters from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor. It is possible the dense fog could continue through the night. Weak low pressure will move from IN into srn Lake MI tnt then newd to Lake Huron for Sat afternoon. Variable winds can be expected as the low moves over the lake tonight. As the low moves away on Sat, modest nwly winds will develop for Sat nt-Sun.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for WIZ057-058- 063>065-068>072.

LM . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LMZ080-366- 565-567-643>646-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876- 878.



Update . Cronce Tonight/Saturday and Aviation/Marine . Gehring Saturday Night through Friday . Patterson

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI	24 mi	31 min	NW 1.9 G 1.9	33°F			1009.1 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL

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S9 G12

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI	12 mi	36 min	N 0	1.50 mi	Light Snow	32°F	32°F	100%	1008.8 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI	18 mi	38 min	N 0	1.00 mi	Light Snow Fog/Mist	35°F	33°F	93%	1009.4 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL	22 mi	36 min	N 0	1.25 mi	Light Snow Fog/Mist	33°F	30°F	92%	1009.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUU

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)

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Calm

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S6

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (21,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI

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