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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 305 Am Cst Tue Nov 28 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am cst this morning...
Early this morning..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Today..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots backing west late in the morning, then easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny in the morning then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots after midnight, then becoming southwest 15 to 25 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Wednesday..West wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Wednesday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots backing southwest after midnight, then rising to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 280935 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 335 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

SHORT TERM
(Issued 335 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023)

Today and Tonight:

The area of low clouds hovering over southwest WI is starting to thin and dissipate. Temperatures are slightly warmer under this cloud layer, but there is still the potential for them to drop to the forecast lows around 8F. As winds diminish more through sunrise, temps will also drop. With 925mb temps around -14C, this is the coldest air so far for the season overhead right now.

The ridge of high pressure will slide across WI during the morning hours and southwest winds will start to increase this afternoon, along with 925mb temps (and therefore our surface temps). Highs should recover to the lower/mid 20s despite increasing mid level clouds.

Low temperatures are a little tricky for tonight. The models (including the GFS ensemble, and to a lesser extend the Euro ensemble) suggest a quick period of cooling in the evening (with lows in the upper teens) before the better low level warm air advection kicks in overnight and warms temps into the lower 20s.
The pressure gradient will increase overhead tonight as high pressure gets into the southeast States and low pressure tracks across Ontario so expect steady southwest winds overnight.

Cronce

LONG TERM
(Issued 335 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023)

Wednesday through Monday:

Quiet and mild weather will ensue for southern WI on Wednesday as a trough develops over the southwest States. Temperatures will actually be right around normal (normal is around 37). Weak low pressure will slide across Ontario and drag a cold front through WI on Thursday so Thu nt temps will be chilly around 20. That southwest low will track across the lower Midwest and the precip is now expected to miss southern WI Thursday afternoon and night.

Another trough over the southwest States will track through the Midwest on Sunday, but this one is expected to phase with the northern stream trough which will lift the associated precip into WI. An active upper wave pattern will park over the Upper Midwest this weekend, so expect multiple chances for precip. The temperature profile looks like we will be just below freezing at 850mb with daytime surface temps above freezing. Therefore, the precip type is uncertain as it could be either rain or snow.

Cronce

AVIATION
(Issued 335 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023)

The area of low clouds with bases around 3500 ft hovering over southwest WI is starting to thin and dissipate. Look for winds to diminish more through sunrise, then southwest winds will start to increase this afternoon. Increasing mid level clouds are expected tonight as low pressure tracks across Ontario. Southwest winds just above the surface will be strong, in excess of 40 mph, so expect low level wind shear.

Cronce

MARINE
(Issued 335 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023)

Gusty northwest winds will gradually diminish today as a ridge of high pressure slides across Lake Michigan. The Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 9AM/15Z. The lull in the winds will be short-lived though.

Low pressure tracking across Ontario tonight will lead to gusty southwest winds over Lake Michigan this evening through the overnight hours. Winds just above the surface will be over 40 kt, but they are not expected to mix down frequently. Therefore, a few gale force gusts will be possible. Another Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. Gusts over 25kt should persist into Wednesday morning, but diminish through the afternoon.

Cronce

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 AM Tuesday.

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