Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Twin Lakes, WI

SHORT TERM
Issued 225 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Tonight through Thursday:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: A cold front is slowly across the state this afternoon, with current obs showing the boundary extending along an approximate Iron Mountain-Waupaca-Platteville axis. Rain with some embedded thunder is ongoing along/behind the front from central Iowa into eastern Nebraska. Activity is being encouraged by a combination of surface-based & elevated processes, with boundary layer frontogenesis being the primary driver in along-front precip & overlapping warm advection and upper divergence being the main forcing further west. Expect all of the aforementioned mechanisms to migrate toward southern Wisconsin this evening & tonight as the cold front continues east, with the end result being periods of showers & embedded thunder. Precip will be ongoing within a seasonably moist environment, which could lead to pockets of heavy downpours. While not expected to be widespread, localized flooding impacts could result, particularly over urban areas & in any locations experiencing training. The currently approaching cold front is expected to progress toward or just south of the Wisconsin-Illinois border by Wednesday afternoon, with its precise location being dependent on the evolution of evening/overnight precip. Should the boundary linger around the Wisconsin side of the border, additional scattered showers and storms would be possible Wednesday afternoon-evening in south-central and southeast Wisconsin.

This Evening-Tonight: Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through 10 PM at Sheboygan County beaches. Will be watching showers & embedded thunder move in from the southwest. General expectation is for the leading edge of ongoing activity to move into areas west of Madison between 430 & 600, the I-39 corridor between 600 & 800, and the lakeshore between 800 & 1000. Will then see activity linger off & on through the remainder of the overnight hours. Low overall severe potential is trending even lower given expected arrival times & increasing cloud cover ahead of the front, but will nevertheless be watching for an isolated storm with some gusty winds immediately along the front during the ~4-10 PM time frame. Elevated rainfall rates remain the largest anticipated impact in activity given 1.5"+ precipitable waters pooled along & behind the front, with rainfall rates being highest in embedded thunderstorms. Could thus see some minor & localized flooding impacts in the event any embedded storms linger over urban areas and/or train, though widespread potential is low.

Wednesday: Have maintained ~40-50% precip probabilities into the afternoon/evening primarily along/south of I-94 & US-18, where the incoming front could stall in the wake of overnight showers/storms.
Higher probabilities will become necessary if it becomes clear that the boundary will remain along/north of the Wisconsin-Illinois border, and vice versa if it trends further south. Similar to this evening/tonight, will need to watch for an isolated storm with gusty winds & brief heavy downpours in the event more storm development occurs. Collectively, generally expecting event-total rain in the 0.10-0.50" range across the north, with higher totals in the 0.50- 1.00" range approaching & moving south of I-94. Best potential for training & locally higher totals to 2.00"+ will be near and south of I-94 as well.

Quigley

LONG TERM
Issued 225 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Thursday night through Tuesday:

High pressure will continue to build back into the region. No significant weather is expected with low temperatures in the upper 50s inland and low 60s near the lakeshore. Winds will be light and from the southeast.

By Friday winds will shift to be from the southwest ahead of the next weak surface front to move through the region. Hot and humid conditions return as high temperatures will peak around 80F and dewpoint temperatures will top in the mid 60s. Expect lows Friday night to be around the low/mid 60s. As the front moves through Friday night, a stray shower or two may pop-up, but will be weak and short lived (~15% chances).

Saturday morning will see rain chances diminish, but this will not last long as low pressure from the Great Plains moves eastwards.
Several shortwaves will pass over the region starting Saturday night which along with the heat and humidity (heat index near 90F) will act as a starting point for showers and storms to return through the end of the weekend (~30-50% chances) and into the beginning of next week (~40-70% chances). Timing and severity of these storms remain uncertain at this time, but will become clearer as the weekend nears.

Soergel

AVIATION
Issued 225 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Scattered to broken diurnal cumulus clouds developed early this afternoon. The ceiling bases are VFR, but there are some lower scattered clouds mixed in with bases around 2800 ft AGL. A northwest- to-southeast oriented front will slowly make its way through southern WI tonight into Wednesday and it will be the focus for showers and isolated thunderstorms.

The time period with the highest confidence to see a few thunderstorms in southern WI will be during this evening. Then we expect more widespread coverage of showers from late tonight into Wednesday morning (much lower confidence in having any lightning).
With a lot of moisture in the atmosphere and the slow-moving system, the showers will be efficient rain producers. Rain will diminish by late morning, but a few showers are possible in the afternoon over southeast WI.

MVFR ceilings are expected with the rain overnight into Wednesday, and a period of IFR ceilings is possible during this time. Winds will be light and variable starting this evening, but trending from southwest today to northwest Wednesday.

Cronce

MARINE
Issued 225 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

1018 mb high pressure is centered between Lakes Erie and Ontario this afternoon, resulting in generally southerly winds across the open waters. A cold front is moving into western Wisconsin, and will approach Lake Michigan through the remainder of the afternoon. The front will slowly move across the waters this evening into Wednesday morning, bringing a brief north-northwest wind shift. Periods of showers and storms will accompany the slow-moving front, with severe weather appearing unlikely at this time. Winds will trend variable Wednesday evening through Thursday, when 1018 mb high pressure is forecast to build back into the western Great Lakes.

A prolonged period of south-southwest winds will become established across Lake Michigan Thursday night through Sunday as 1018 mb high pressure lingers off the Mid-Atlantic coast and 1002 mb low pressure stalls over the Hudson Bay. A slow-moving surface front will linger across the western Great Lakes Saturday into the beginning of next week, bringing multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be stronger, with additional details clarifying through the end of this week.

Small Craft Advisory conditions continue into this evening from Port Washington and points north, where a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 10 PM CDT. The advisory may be canceled earlier than the current 10 PM CDT expiration time if wave heights subside faster than currently forecast, with trends being monitored through this evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected into tonight as a cold front slowly moves through the region. Widespread severe weather isn't expected, though a few storms could produce gusty winds. Additional periods of storms are expected this weekend into early next week as a front stalls over the western Great Lakes. Some of these storms could be strong, with trends being monitored through the rest of this week.

Quigley

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI
Beach Hazards Statement
WIZ052 until 10 PM Tuesday.

LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643 until 10 PM Tuesday.