Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beloit, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 250842 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 242 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020

SHORT TERM. (Issued 300 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020)

Today through Thursday:

Rain has temporarily moved out of the region with dense fog filling in behind as a result of calm winds low level moisture. Currently a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the western half of the CWA with ongoing visibilities near a quarter mile through 10 AM and may need to be expanded further east.

Much of the area may remain dry through the early morning given limited forcing though some drizzle along the far southeast will be possible. Another round of rain will push into southern Wisconsin later this morning and continue through the afternoon with the upper low and the associated surface low. The main forcing for this will be PVA with potentially some influence from the TROWAL with overall a very moist column to tap into. The track of the low appears to be such that the northwestern part of the CWA may not see much, if any, rain, while southeastern parts of the CWA may see from a quarter to a half inch more of rain. As the rain pushes in expect winds to increase slightly in association with the surface low this should at least decrease the density of the fog which is why the Dense Fog Advisory ends at 10 AM, however we could see some dense fog stick around even longer, especially if the northwest parts of the CWA do not get much rain.

Most of the precipitation should push out by the early evening as we lose our moisture in the mid levels, however, with moisture sticking around in the low levels some lingering drizzle will be possible. Otherwise we expect to dry out overnight with some clearing skies expected during the day on Thanksgiving. Temperatures for Thanksgiving are looking to reach the mid 40s for the most part but potentially warmer if we can get some additional sun exposure.

Kuroski

LONG TERM. (Issued 300 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020)

Thursday Night and Friday:

Cooler air will settle over southern WI Thursday night behind a passing weak cold front. Enough low level moisture expected in the weak cold air push to warrant some clouds, but not enough to add any precipitation chances. Increasing subsidence and drier air in the low levels should result in at least some sunshine on Friday and temperature rebounding close to seasonal normal for late November, back into the low to mid 40s.

Friday Night through Tuesday:

Quiet conditions look to continue through the bulk of the holiday weekend. The Medium Range guidance continues to fabulously flip- flop on the phasing of the northern and southern steering flow and location of sharpening mid-level short wave trough late in the weekend into early next week. Twenty-four hours ago, all the phasing was expected farther east over the eastern CONUS, however the last two deterministic runs have moved the system farther west, and potentially having an impact on southern WI on Monday and Tuesday. The latest ECWMF and GEM show a rapidly sharpening long wave trof over the western Great Lakes, phasing with a southern wave to form a deep low pressure system over the OH Valley on Monday. Southern WI would be on the colder and drier side of this system. Latest GFS is faster and farther north with the phasing of these two systems and wetter for southern WI. However 00Z GFS an outlier with this solution as 95% of GEFS QPF plumes show little to no precipitation for KMKE during this period. Fortunately, the bulk of this system will occur somewhere from the Great Lakes to the east coast after the holiday weekend has completed. We'll be watching this one closely over the next 5 days.

Kavinsky

AVIATION. (Issued 300 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020)

Very foggy MVFR to VLIFR conditions will continue through much of the morning before lightening up a little bit by the late morning with the expected rain and slight uptick in winds. However it will be expected to remain foggy with MVFR/IFR VSBYS through at least the early evening tonight perhaps lingering through parts of the overnight hours. The lowest VSBYS will be further west. We will see some rain push in mainly for areas further east that will last for much of the afternoon and into the evening. Generally expect IFR/LIFR CIGS that may stick around into the day Thursday before eventually starting to push out.

Kuroski

MARINE. (Issued 300 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020)

The Small Craft Advisory will continue for the northern two tiers until 12z primarily for waves. Otherwise fog is expected over the southern half of the lake today, though at this time is not expected to be dense

Expect light and variable winds across the lake through at least Thursday morning. By Thursday afternoon winds should pick up from the southwest for a brief period with winds turning northwest Friday becoming more variable through the weekend but remaining primarily westerly. Monday and Tuesday will bring the next risk for Gales as a system pushes into the region potentially bringing some very gusty winds across the lake.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Dense Fog Advisory . WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058- WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069 until 10 AM Wednesday.

LM . Small Craft Advisory . LMZ643-LMZ644 until 6 AM Wednesday.



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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI	66 mi	103 min	S 5.1 G 8	43°F			1010.5 hPa
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL	66 mi	103 min	SSW 5.1 G 6	44°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI	70 mi	33 min	ESE 1 G 1	43°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Janesville-Rock County, WI	7 mi	68 min	E 3	1.75 mi	Fog/Mist	43°F	42°F	100%	1009.8 hPa
Rockford, Greater Rockford Airport, IL	22 mi	49 min	E 4	3.00 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist	45°F	42°F	90%	1010.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJVL

Wind History from JVL (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI

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