Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beloit, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 261759 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1259 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

UPDATE.

As diurnal heating has had its time to take hold, MLCAPE has increased to a modest 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Evidence of this increase in CAPE is present on vis satellite as a cu field has developed and become more and more agitated over the past few hours from Madison on westward. A few scattered thunderstorms have developed from this cu field and further development is expected this afternoon. These thunderstorms will be pulse-like in nature, as effective bulk shear is at, and expected to remain at 25 kts, making it hard for the storms to maintain a prolonged life cycle. Nevertheless, as these spotty storms reach maturity throughout this afternoon, some small hail, brief gusty winds, cloud-to- ground lightning, and heavy downpours will be possible mainly from the Interstate 39 corridor and westward.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS).

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible for the Madison area today, while lakeshore terminals may stay relatively dry. If thunderstorms do occur, MFVR cigs and vis may be possible for brief periods of time. Winds will generally be out of the south- southeast at 5 to 10 kts today. Thunderstorm chances will generally begin to diminish into the overnight hours.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 953 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020)

UPDATE .

Temperatures are warming quickly this morning with some areas already at 80 as of 930 AM. Shower and storm threat is still on track for today, but activity will likely be fairly scattered. Currently a few pop-up thunder showers have developed in SW-ern Wisconsin. These are likely elevated and forcing for them appears nebulous. With current effective bulk shear values at 25 kts, the should pulse and then dissipate over the new few hours. Conditions will be monitored throughout the day for possible redevelopment.

MARINE .

Areas of dense fog is ongoing for nearshore locations in Sheboygan and Ozaukee Counties. These areas of fog will tend to dissipate/advect northward through the day. Otherwise, warm, moist air over the relatively cool waters of Lake Michigan will make periods of dense fog a rolling concern through at least Thursday of this week.

Winds will be southerly to southeasterly and fairly light at 5 to 10 kts today and continuing through Thursday. Waves will be confined to 2 feet or less today.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 327 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Tuesday through Wednesday . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

Showers to our south in IL early this morning fizzled out before crossing into WI, but additional shower and thunderstorm chances will be possible today and Wednesday as an unsettled, but very warm pattern continues across southern WI. An upper-level low slowly churns over the southern/central Plains, disconnected from the northern jet. This upper-level low will slowly lift northward through today, bringing a surface low from OK/AR area into NE/IA area by this evening.

Southern WI will remain on the warm side of this system with southerly flow continuing to advect warm, moist air into the region. Looking at another day of high temps topping off in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the 60s. The warmer temps and ample moisture will help MLCAPE climb to around 1500-2200 J/kg this afternoon and combined with synoptic scale lift from the diffluent flow aloft, could see some convective showers develop through the afternoon. However, thunderstorm activity looks to be limited due to little deep layer shear (around 20 kt), minimal lapse rates (less than 6.5 C/km), and lack of lift. Although, can not rule the potential for a strong storm or two with some small hail, especially across our western portions of the CWA closer to the surface low, confidence for any stronger convection is low.

Similar setup expected for Wednesday with southerly flow and daytime temps topping off in the low 80s. Could see a few scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day, but lack of forcing will limit this activity once again.

LONG TERM .

Wednesday Night through Thursday Night . Forecast Confidence Medium .

Little change to the overall pattern Wednesday night, as the surface boundary remains nearly stalled to our west, and a cut off upper level low spins across central Arkansas. By Thursday, however, a northern stream shortwave moving southeast from the Canadian Prairies should kick the front east/southeast, bringing it into the region. We will see a commensurate uptick in shower/thunderstorm coverage with the approach of the front.

Not terribly impressed by the severe weather potential with this frontal passage, as stronger westerlies will remain behind the frontal boundary, and instability will likely be limited by ongoing convection ahead of the front. Heavy rain may be the bigger concern, with a slow moving front, boundary-parallel shear vectors, and PWATs approaching 1.75". 1-2" of rain, with locally higher amounts depending on thunderstorm coverage, seems plausible at this point.

Friday into the Weekend . Forecast Confidence Medium to High .

The front will slowly push southeast heading into Friday morning, and should clear the area early Friday. Guidance continues to point toward a dry and cool weekend, with expansive high pressure overhead. Highs Saturday and Sunday may remain in the 60s over much of the area, with overnight lows in the upper 40s/low 50s.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LMZ261-362- 364-366-563-565-567-669-868-870.

Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LMZ643.



Update . CMiller Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . Wagner Wednesday THROUGH Monday . Boxell

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI	66 mi	18 min	S 8.9 G 12	64°F			1015.6 hPa (-1.0)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI	70 mi	28 min	ESE 12 G 14	59°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Janesville-Rock County, WI	7 mi	33 min	SSE 13	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	84°F	68°F	58%	1014.9 hPa
Rockford, Greater Rockford Airport, IL	22 mi	24 min	SSE 12	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	82°F	69°F	65%	1014.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJVL

Wind History from JVL (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (14,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI

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