Friday, April10, 2020
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L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cheshire, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 7:30PM Friday April 10, 2020 1:32 PM EDT (17:32 UTC) Moonrise 10:54PMMoonset 8:06AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 109 Pm Edt Fri Apr 10 2020
.gale warning in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Slight chance of showers late.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W around 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. Chance of rain.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
ANZ300 109 Pm Edt Fri Apr 10 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Strong low pressure will track up into the canadian maritimes this afternoon, while high pressure over the mid section of the country builds east. The high passes to the south of the waters Saturday night into Sunday morning. A complex low pressure system will approach Sunday night and move across on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheshire, MA
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location: 42.53, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 101423 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1023 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. Brisk, cool and unsettled weather will impact the region today as a large storm system tracks northeastward into the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. Some accumulation of snow is expected across the higher terrain with some rain showers for valley locations. Both the winds and the precipitation will subside tonight as high pressure builds in from the west. This high pressure area will bring a tranquil start to the weekend under partial April sunshine. Clouds increase Sunday before our next storm set to impact the region into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Wind Advisory remains in effect for portions of eastern New York and western New England . Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for accumulating snow across portions of the Adirondacks .

As of 1023 AM EDT . A cold cyclonic flow regime in place today, resulting scattered to numerous snow showers in the higher terrain and rain/snow showers in the valleys. Some changes were made to increase coverage of snow showers in the Berkshires and northern Litchfield Hills this morning, but any accumulations will be minor (less than a half inch). Strong April sun angle is already working on the snow cover where snow accumulated last night into early this morning. NYS Mesonet cams indicating melting snow outside of the Adirondacks, where steady snow showers and temperatures around freezing are still occurring. Expecting activity to become more cellular by this afternoon, which matches expected unblocked flow, before snow showers become more tied to terrain influences later today.

Will issue a Special Weather Statement to account for expected accumulating snow in the southern Green Mountains, with the greatest totals around 2-4 inches above 2000 feet.

A large stacked low across the Canadian Maritimes will slowly lift northeastward today. Considerable wrap around moisture along with lake effect activity downwind of Lake Ontario will persist most of the day. While H850 temperatures will be more than cold enough for mainly snow, April sunshine will likely warm the boundary layer for a rain/snow mixture for lower elevations down to the valleys. For those higher terrains, with already a little snow pack from some snow overnight, some additional accumulations are expected. While the Froude number is at or greater than 2, the flow is supercritical/unblocked (rapid flow) so plenty of precipitation across many portions of the region through early afternoon. Thereafter, the Froude number falls where some of the snow accumulations will become a little more focused across the Dacks and into the southern Greens.

Regarding the wind magnitudes, mixing layer heights will climb to between 3-4k feet where 30-40kt wind speeds reside. Combine those with some channeling down the Mohawk into the Capital Region, central Taconics and Berkshires, the wind advisory will remain in effect today.

High temperatures will range from 30s across the terrain to upper 40s for the mid-Hudson Valley.

Winds, precipitation and cloud coverage will diminish through tonight as the large storm across the Canadian Maritimes continues to pull away with reduced influences for our region and high pressure ridge axis approaches from the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A rather chilly night across the county warning area with mainly 20s for the terrain and lower 30s for the Hudson River Valley (H850 temperatures around -10C toward 12Z Saturday).

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Saturday-Saturday night . The low and mid level flow becomes anticyclonic with high pressure building in from the OH Valley and the Mid Atlantic States. Despite increasing amounts of April sunshine, temps will run below normal to open the weekend with 40s to lower 50s in the valleys, and 30s to lower 40s over the hills and mtns as H850 temperatures rebound at or around -6C. The winds will be greatly reduced with the weaker sfc pressure gradient over the region. Fair and cold weather is expected Saturday Night, as the sfc high moves offshore. Some high and mid level clouds may drift in overnight in advance of next upstream developing storm with lows in the 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The periods starts on Easter Sunday with ridging over the Northeast ahead of a deep and vigorous impulse moving through Texas rounding the base of a longwave trough. Southerly flow is forecast over the local area ahead of a sprawling area of low pressure attendant to this impulse. Despite clouds likely thickening, rather mild temperatures can be expected with the southerly flow. Some signal that a few showers could occur north and west of the Capital District along a sharpening warm frontal signature.

Main period of potentially impactful weather appears to be Sunday night into Tuesday as cyclogenesis occurs in conjunction with the aforementioned impulse ejecting quickly northeastward, going negatively tilted, and phasing with some northern stream energy. Latest deterministic models are seriously impressive with respect to the deepening rate and minimum central pressure of this cyclone considering its forecast inland track from the mid-Mississippi Valley to near James Bay 00Z Mon to 00Z Tue. For instance, 00Z ECMWF/GFS deepen the low around 20 mb over this time frame, with the minimum central pressure 965-970mb. Also, the 00Z GEFS has nearly all of its members reaching a minimum central pressure below 970 mb. However, as we are still 4-5 days out, a lot of factors have to come together for a storm of this magnitude to develop and much can change. For now, will continue to highlight the potential for strong winds in the warm sector on Monday, along with moderate to possibly heavy rainfall late Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures are likely to be very mild with the warm front easily clearing the area if latest model projections are correct, and some embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

Monday night into Tuesday, indications are for the dry slot to move into our area, with any precipitation becoming more showery and light. Winds may continue to be strong on Tuesday in the cold advection if the storm ends up being as strong as advertised, but it is not a classic track for a high/damaging westerly wind event. An anomalously cool airmass looks to set up in the wake of the cold front, persisting through the remainder of the forecast. Some periods of showers cannot be ruled out with disturbances rotating through the cyclonic flow, but predictability is low at this time. Some snow across the higher terrain cannot be ruled out with the anomalously cool airmass, especially at night.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR conditions across the terminals at the start of the TAF period. Lingering moisture interacting with an upper disturbance moving in from the north will result in isolated to scattered rain showers (possibly mixed with some wet snowflakes at times early and late in the day and throughout the day at KPSF) over the terminals from time to time. Skies will likely become broken to overcast with low VFR and possibly some MVFR at times in both ceilings and visibility. Clouds and showers will diminish in coverage after 00Z Saturday.

Winds will increase this morning, gusting to 30-40 kt at times from the west during most of the day. The winds will diminish after 00Z Saturday, but some gusts to 20-25kt are still possible through the night.

Outlook .

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER. Brisk, cool and unsettled weather will impact the region today as a large storm system tracks northeastward into the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. Some accumulation of snow is expected across the higher terrain with some rain showers for valley locations. Both the winds and the precipitation will subside tonight as high pressure builds in from the west. This high pressure area will bring a tranquil start to the weekend under partial April sunshine. Clouds increase Sunday before our next storm set to impact the region into early next week.

The RH values will lower only to 40 to 70 percent during the afternoon, some 30s into the mid-Hudson Valley and southern portions of Litchfield County, CT. Expect the RH values to recover to around 70 to 95 percent Saturday morning.

West to northwest winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 to 50 mph by late morning and afternoon. Wind magnitudes will slowly diminish Friday night.

HYDROLOGY. No widespread hydro problems are expected into this weekend. Probabilities of increasing impacts from moderate to heavy rainfall are increasing for early next week.

Previous rainfall has resulted in some minor rises on rivers and streams; however, no widespread flooding occurred.

Cloudy, blustery and cool weather, with more valley rain showers and mountain snow showers are expected today through Friday evening. Some light to isolated moderate amounts of snow are possible for the western Adirondacks and southern Green Mtns.

Although most of the weekend will be dry, more rain looks to return for Sunday night through Monday Night. Another widespread soaking rainfall will be possible. The rainfall could be locally heavy and will have to monitor for some within bank sharp rises, if heavy QPF materializes in portions of the ALY HSA.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038>040- 047>054-058-061-063-082. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ032- 033. MA . Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MAZ001-025. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . BGM NEAR TERM . BGM/JPV SHORT TERM . BGM/Wasula LONG TERM . Thompson AVIATION . Thompson FIRE WEATHER . BGM/Wasula HYDROLOGY . BGM/Wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 60 mi63 min SW 13 43°F 992 hPa28°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 86 mi45 min NW 24 G 38 46°F 47°F991.2 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 94 mi45 min WNW 15 G 23 45°F 48°F992.4 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Adams Harriman-and-West Airport, MA15 mi41 minW 21 G 3910.00 miOvercast and Breezy42°F27°F55%989.3 hPa
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA17 mi39 minW 23 G 3210.00 miOvercast and Windy39°F26°F60%989.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAQW

Wind History from AQW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW5W7NW6NW6W6W6CalmW4W7W6W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE7E8E12
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SW7CalmCalmW5W7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmN3CalmW43

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:42 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:33 AM EDT     6.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:16 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:52 PM EDT     5.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.2-00.92.64.25.46.16.15.33.92.71.70.6-0.10.21.53.14.355.34.83.72.5

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:52 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:41 AM EDT     6.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:26 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:00 PM EDT     5.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.3-00.72.345.266.15.44.12.91.80.8-00.11.32.94.14.95.34.93.82.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.