Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cheshire, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:21PM Friday December 6, 2019 10:06 AM EST (15:06 UTC) Moonrise 2:43PMMoonset 2:09AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 602 Am Est Fri Dec 6 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers late.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
ANZ300 602 Am Est Fri Dec 6 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A surface ridge axis quickly exits to the east this morning, while a cold front approaches from the great lakes. The cold front passes through the waters this evening. High pressure will build in through Saturday and then offshore on Sunday. A complex frontal system will impact the area early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheshire, MA
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location: 42.53, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 061127 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 627 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. An Alberta Clipper will bring a widespread light snow event during the daytime today with some impacts to the evening commute expected. High pressure returns for the weekend leading to dry and cooler conditions.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. . Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 10 AM to 10 PM for Bennington County, Eastern Rensselaer County and Northern Berkshire County .

Cloudy across the region and some fingers of light snow and flurries are extending toward the western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks. The area of snow upstream around the Great Lakes and into central NY is very streaky and cellular but is expected to become more organized and become a relatively uniform area of light snow with pockets of moderate snow later this morning.

Snow will spread across the region along and north of the eastern Catskills, Central Taconics and Berkshires. Upper dynamics dropping out of Canada and a strengthening boundary layer southwesterly jet core will briefly enhance frontogenesis, convergence and isentropic lift. There is not much moisture associated with this system but some moisture will be picked up off the Great Lakes. The saturated layer and maximum vertical motion looks to be between the surface and about 600 hPa, which is below the dendritic growth zone. So, snow ratios may not be much different than climo.

There is a general consensus from sources of guidance/ensembles that an inch or two of snow is likely in most areas outside the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and southern Berkshires where there may be some dustings. Snow will be enhanced around the western Mohawk Valley to south facing areas of the southern Adirondacks, northern Saratoga Region, southern Green Mountains, Rensselaer Plateau and northern Berkshires with 2-4" of snow and locally 5" in the higher peaks of the southern Green Mountains.

Snow ends quickly this afternoon in eastern NY and this evening in western New England. Highs in the lower to mid 30s but some upper 30s mid Hudson Valley and NW CT and 20s higher terrain.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. A period of gusty west to northwest winds and cooling boundary layer temperatures should support some lake effect snow showers into the western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks this evening. Winds will diminish later tonight and lake effect snow shower activity will likely shrink.

Improving sky and tranquil weather Saturday with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s with some mid 30s southern areas and lower to mid 20s northern areas. Warm advection begins Sunday and strengthens through Sunday night. The next system begins to organize to our west and some increasing clouds are likely through Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday in the mid 30s to near 40 but around 30 to lower 30s higher terrain.

By Sunday night, low level south to southwest flow increases as does moisture advection, supporting the potential for precipitation to begin in some areas after midnight. Temperatures will fall to near or below freezing in the evening, then temperatures warm between midnight and daybreak Monday. This will result in chances for mixed precipitation depending on how quickly or slowly temperatures warm. So, indicating just some chances for mixed precipitation Sunday night, including freezing rain in northern areas. More details on this will be known as we get closer to Sunday and Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Focus here is on warm and wet period Monday and Tuesday. Models continue to advertise a significant rain event coupled with temperatures running 15 degrees above normal during the day and 15- 20 degrees above normal at night.

High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will range from the mid 40s to low 50s in valley locations, to upper 30s to mid 40s in higher terrain. Some hints in the extended MOS guidance that temperatures could even be a few degree degrees higher than currently forecast.

Models in good agreement that a swath of 2-3 inch rain will occur across the Northeast U.S. during this period. Models are not in good agreement on where the heaviest rain will fall. Canadian and GFS forecast the heaviest rain to fall south and east of the Albany forecast area, although a local maxima is forecast across the southern Adirondacks. (Winds will be predominantly southwest during this event. Local research confirms that heavy rain - relative to the rest of the forecast area - falls in the southern Adirondacks during this regime.) The GEFS agree with this scenario as well, although there are hints here of southern and eastern locations in the forecast area having a chance of receiving heavy rain. Meanwhile, the ECMWF places the maxima over the southeast half of the forecast area with widespread 2 inch rainfall totals. So plenty to still to sort out over the next several days.

A check of meteorological parameters from the GEFS show 850mb winds 1-2 standard deviations above normal, PWATS 1-2 standard deviations above normal, and 850mb moisture flux up to 2-3 standard deviations above normal.

The deep snowpack will ripen due to warm temperatures and rainfall with at least some runoff and rises on area rivers. However it is too early to determine if there will be a flooding threat during this period.

A strong cold front will sweep across the area Tuesday afternoon sending temperatures back below freezing. 850mb temperatures will run 1-2 standard deviations below normal Wednesday and Thursday. This yields temperatures on Wednesday about 5 degrees below normal and on Thursday around 10 degrees below normal.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Focus here is on clipper storm tracking across the eastern Great Lakes this morning and into New York State this afternoon. Highest snowfall totals and highest snowfall rates will occur across the higher elevations and northern locations of the forecast area. Thus greatest impact from this weak storm will be observed at KPSF, with intermediate impacts at KALB and KGFL, and no impact at KPOU.

Specifically, snow will develop at all terminals, except KPOU, in the 16-18Z period with IFR conditions. TAF forecast has 1SM -SN. It's possible that terminals could see 1/2SM to 1/4SM in SN/+SN briefly. The most likely location for this would be KPSF. No snow is expected at KPOU, thus VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Given the quick movement of the system, snow will end at all terminals by 00Z or so.

All terminals will see a return to VFR conditions toward the end of the forecast period.

Outlook .

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of RA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Scattered SHRA. SHSN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHSN.

HYDROLOGY. Temperatures will remain below normal through Sunday, so little melting and/or runoff is expected through the next several days. A period of light snow is expected today. This will allow the snow pack to be maintained and for some ice to build on shallow waterways, especially during the overnight hours.

Temperatures will likely rise to above normal values by Monday into Tuesday, with periods of rain likely. This will likely lead to at least some ripening and melting of the snowpack and runoff, although it is too early to determine if there will be a flooding threat during this period. Rises on area waterways are likely during this timeframe.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including latest observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ054. MA . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for MAZ001. VT . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for VTZ013.

SYNOPSIS . NAS NEAR TERM . NAS SHORT TERM . NAS LONG TERM . OKeefe AVIATION . OKeefe HYDROLOGY . NAS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 60 mi96 min Calm 31°F 1018 hPa21°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 86 mi48 min WSW 5.1 G 8 36°F 41°F1019.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 94 mi60 min WSW 6 G 8.9 37°F 45°F1019.8 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Adams Harriman-and-West Airport, MA15 mi74 minN 010.00 miOvercast29°F18°F63%1017.6 hPa
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA17 mi72 minN 010.00 miOvercast27°F18°F69%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAQW

Wind History from AQW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmW5W6W3W3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W6W7W8W7W8W7W13
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Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:12 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:44 AM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:35 PM EST     4.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:16 PM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.443.22.31.60.90.1-0.10.61.93.13.84.44.43.832.41.810.40.61.62.73.5

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:05 AM EST     4.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:12 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:54 AM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:43 PM EST     4.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:26 PM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.44.13.32.41.710.2-0.20.51.72.93.84.34.43.93.12.51.91.20.40.51.52.63.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.