Tuesday, August4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Castleton-on-Hudson, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:12PM Tuesday August 4, 2020 10:53 AM EDT (14:53 UTC) Moonrise 9:13PMMoonset 6:32AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Castleton-on-Hudson, NY
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location: 42.53, -73.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 041443 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1043 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Periods of heavy rain and gusty winds are expected through this evening associated with Tropical Storm Isaias. Flash flooding and minor wind damage are possible, especially in the afternoon and evening. The highest flood threat is along and west of the Hudson, and the highest wind threat is east of the Hudson. Tranquil and seasonable weather will return Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1040 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Isaias is located along the Delmarva Peninsula and is moving quickly to the north-northeast. Rain associated with Isaias continues to fall across the region with the most concentrated activity along and west of the Hudson River. Rain has been mostly moderate in intensity with a few pockets of heavy rain. Little or no rain is falling at this time across the Taconics, Berkshires and Litchfield County, but this will change as the afternoon progresses as the core of Isaias passing through the region. Pops were updated to reflect latest and future trends.

Regarding temperatures, locations within the rain are stuck in the mid-60s to near 70. With rain continuing, little or no rise in temperatures are expected for the remainder of the day. To the east, where some drier periods are anticipated and occurring, temperatures are in the lower 70s and temperatures can rise a few more degrees before dropping later this afternoon once the rain intensifies as Isaias passes through.

The heaviest rain is anticipated to fall along and west of the Hudson River with amounts of 2-4 inches expected with locally higher amounts. An isolated tornado threat will be possible, generally along and east of the Hudson River.

Previous discussion: As of 635 am, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expanding in coverage as PWATs increase to above 1.75 inches and ascent occurs in the right entrance region of an upper jet. So far, there have been a few heavier downpours in embedded convective elements. The NYSM site at Woodbourne near the Delaware/Ulster border has already picked up nearly an inch of rain. SPC mesoanalysis suggests stability in the forecast area as lightning was observed south of our CWA border but has dissipated upon moving into Dutchess County. The instability should creep up during the morning.

Focus in the near term is on impacts from TC Isaias. It will be accelerating northward as it becomes squeezed between an upstream full-latitude trough and a downstream Bermuda high. It made landfall earlier this evening near the NC/SC border, and is forecast to remain inland, reaching near Dutchess County by 00Z Wed and near Quebec City by 12Z Wed. This track represents a slightly faster and westward track compared with 24 hours ago. There is fairly good agreement in the guidance at this point.

Deep layer moisture will continue to gradually increase this morning ahead of the storm, with PWATs forecast to reach 1.75-2.00 inches. The pattern during this time period has been somewhat reminiscent of a southwesterly jet Predecessor Rainfall Event (PRE) per CSTAR research, where tropical moisture is advected poleward of the TC and interacts with ascent in the right entrance region of the upper level jet. Some of this activity may be focused along an inverted trough. Heavy downpours are likely, and HREF neighborhood probabilities for 3-hourly rainfall in excess of an inch are greater than 30 percent from 12-18Z, but the main flash flood threat looks to be in the afternoon. Highs Tuesday may finally fail to reach 80 degrees over most of the area with clouds and showers around.

It appears that the greatest heavy rainfall potential will occur over a 6-9 hour period associated with the approaching TC sometime between 18Z Tuesday and 03Z Wednesday. Models are depicting the heaviest swath of rain just west of the low track, associated with strong frontogenesis interacting with the juicy airmass (PWATs increasing to 2-2.25 inches, or +2 to +3 standard deviations). The system may be undergoing extratropical transition by this time. It is during this period that 3-hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches within this swath are possible as indicated by the NAM12 and HREF. Model consensus is keying in on areas along and just west of the Hudson Valley for the heaviest rainfall threat. There is likely to be some degree of orographic enhancement along the eastern slopes of the Catskills, but with the progressive nature of the system, the low-level winds will be changing direction quickly with time, so that should spare any particular slopes from a prolonged enhancement. Despite the antecedent dry conditions, the heavy rainfall rates could produce flash flooding, so we have a Flash Flood Watch in place for the entire CWA. It was expanded into Herkimer County with this update given the slight westward shift with the QPF. Flash flood threat will be somewhat less to the east of the Hudson with lesser dynamics and potential for downsloping, but still cannot be ruled out given the tropical airmass. More details in the hydro section below.

Strong winds will be another hazard primarily in the eastern semicircle of the storm. This is where 925 mb southeasterly winds of 40-60 kt will be located from 18Z Tue to 00Z Wed (highest south and east). There is uncertainty with how much of this wind will be able to reach the surface with clouds and showers around, but there is certainly potential for at least the lower end of this range to be realized at the surface. Wind Advisory and Tropical Storm Warning cover this threat, and we could see some downed trees/branches. Low probability of higher (50+kt) winds, but possible in any convective elements especially from Dutchess County into western New England, where SPC has outlined a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. There is also a threat for downsloping enhancement of the winds across portions of western New England and the Taconics, especially if breaks in the precip occur as some of the mesoscale models are indicating. Will monitor trends for a potential upgrade to a high wind warning. Any respectable updraft will pose a tornado threat given extreme low- level helicity (0-1km 200-400 m^2/s^2 and 0-3 km 400-600 m^2/s^2 per the HREF mean) especially 18-00Z. Models do suggest some weak instability of 500-1000 J/kg, which is actually greater in the morning hours well ahead of the center of the TC, when shear will be less but still strong. So while a low probability due to the overall weaker forcing, any storm that manages to develop in the morning hours will have to be monitored for gusty wind potential.

Rainfall looks to end from south to north 00-06Z Wednesday, with winds diminishing rather quickly as well. There is a low but nonzero probability of brief strong wind gusts in the southwest quadrant of the storm due to drier air mixing in. Some showers will linger over the western Adirondacks. Lows mainly in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Much drier air takes hold in the wake of Isaias for Wednesday into Thursday, with PWATs plummeting to less than an inch. Large contrast in forecast high temps ranging from the upper 60s in the southern Adirondacks to the upper 80s in the Mid Hudson Valley Wednesday. A few showers are possible across the western Adirondacks Wednesday morning due to lake enhancement and orographic lift. High pressure overhead Wednesday night into Thursday with temps near normal.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Fairly quiet and seasonable weather will be in place to start the extended period. Although a weak shortwave will be approaching from the Great Lakes for Friday into Saturday, limited moisture and low amounts of instability will keep any showers or t-storms fairly isolated and mainly located across far southern parts of the area. Warm temps aloft should allow for highs to reach the mid 80s for valley areas, with overnight lows generally in the 60s. Dewpoints will remain somewhat muggy into the lower to middle 60s.

Rising heights and warming temps aloft should keep it fairly capped for Sunday. While we can't totally rule out a stray shower or t- storm (mainly for the high terrain), most areas should remain dry. Temps looks slightly warmer for Sunday, with valley highs reaching close to the upper 80s.

As another shortwave approaches, diurnally-forced convection looks to be slightly more widespread for Monday and especially Tuesday. Daytime temps will continue to be warm, with highs well into the 80s. Overnight lows will be muggy and sticky, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. TC Isaias is moving northward across the coastal mid Atlantic states and heading towards the Northeast. Showers have been spreading northward towards the area. Flying conditions have been varying between VFR and MVFR (mainly for visibility within brief heavier showers). By mid to late morning, flying conditions will primarily be MVFR, as showers become more numerous in coverage and pick up in intensity. The heaviest rainfall looks to arrive for the mid to late afternoon hours and continue into the evening. With that rainfall, IFR/LIFR conditions are expected for a several hour period, as visibility will be reduced to 1/2 mile to 1 mile.

East to northeast winds of 5 to 10 kts in the morning will increase to 10 to 20 kts from the north to northwest by late in the day as the storm crosses the region. Some gusts may exceed 30 kts, mainly at KALB/KPSF. Although 2 kft winds will be 40 to 50 kts, enough of a surface wind looks to be occurring, so no concerns for LLWS at this time.

Rain will be ending around 00z for all sites and flying conditons will return to VFR conditions for most of tonight. Behind the storm, winds will become west to southwest at around 10 kts, with some higher gusts, although they should be decreasing as the night goes on. As skies clear out, there could be some patchy fog that forms, but will not include at this time, as a lingering breeze could prevent this from being too widespread.

Outlook .

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact Slight Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

FIRE WEATHER. Tropical Cyclone Isaias will bring a widespread moderate to heavy rainfall across the area today. Conditions will dry out again Wednesday and Thursday, with sunshine returning and generally minimum RH values 40 to 50 percent.

HYDROLOGY. Periods of rain associated with the northward progression of TC Isaias will continue into early tonight. Heavy downpours will be possible through 18Z as coverage of rainfall gradually increases. Flooding threat should remain isolated through 18Z, but will have to be monitored in case any training elements develop. The heaviest rainfall looks to occur over a 6-9 hour period from 18Z through 03Z Wednesday as the storm makes its closest approach. QPF of 2-4" is expected, with locally higher amounts up to 6" possible mainly along and west of the Hudson Valley. Here, rainfall rates could exceed an inch per hour, and there could be 2-4" in a 3- hour period. This is when the flash flooding threat will be highest.

The heavy rainfall rates have the potential to cause flash flooding especially in urban, poor drainage and low lying areas. Smaller streams and creeks may also flood their banks due to the heavy rainfall rates. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire HSA and has been expanded into Herkimer county.

The ALY Hydro Service area continues to be in Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions /D0 to D1/ based on the latest US Drought Monitor. The latest MMEFS guidance continues to show low probabilities for river flooding on the main stem rivers. However, some of the flashier basins could see flooding, such as the Schoharie, Esopus, Hoosic, and Mettawee. The Hudson near Poughkeepsie could get close to flood stage due to tidal effects.

Drier weather will return into the mid week period.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for CTZ001-013. Tropical Storm Warning for CTZ001-013. NY . Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NYZ032-033- 038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ033-039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA . Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MAZ001-025. Tropical Storm Warning for MAZ001-025. VT . Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for VTZ013>015. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for VTZ013>015.

SYNOPSIS . Thompson NEAR TERM . Thompson/Rathbun SHORT TERM . Thompson LONG TERM . Frugis AVIATION . Frugis FIRE WEATHER . Thompson HYDROLOGY . Thompson/Rathbun


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 36 mi84 min Calm 71°F 1014 hPa70°F
TKPN6 37 mi60 min Calm G 6 71°F 1014.7 hPa71°F
NPXN6 49 mi84 min NNE 1 71°F 1016 hPa69°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 98 mi60 min SSE 8 G 12 79°F 1013.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 99 mi60 min SE 8.9 G 14 79°F 1013.6 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY16 mi63 minN 02.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist67°F66°F100%1015.3 hPa
Schenectady Airport, NY24 mi64 minENE 57.00 miLight Rain70°F69°F100%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KALB

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Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
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Tue -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:52 AM EDT     4.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:21 PM EDT     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:19 PM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.20.51.8344.754.53.52.51.50.3-0.6-0.50.51.62.53.33.73.62.92.21.50.8

Tide / Current Tables for New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York
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New Baltimore
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:35 AM EDT     5.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:54 AM EDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:02 PM EDT     3.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.31.32.53.54.4554.33.32.31.20.1-0.40.11.12.12.93.63.83.52.82.11.50.7

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.