Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Castleton-on-Hudson, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:23PM Friday December 6, 2019 2:09 PM EST (19:09 UTC) Moonrise 2:46PMMoonset 2:12AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Castleton-on-Hudson, NY
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location: 42.53, -73.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 061812 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 112 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. An Alberta Clipper today bringing widespread light snow will bring some impacts to the evening commute before exiting early this evening. High pressure returns for the weekend leading to dry and cooler conditions.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 10 AM to 10 PM for Bennington County, Eastern Rensselaer County and Northern Berkshire County .

Updated at 1 PM . Snowfall rates have increased for areas along and north of I-90 now that the best isentropic lift is overspreading the region. The NAM percent of frozen precipitation output did a nice job depicting that initial snow would struggle to accumulate in the immediate Capital District. BUFKIT sounding still support the best lift intercepting the snow growth zone for areas north of I-90 through 21z. However, warmer air moving in aloft for areas along I-90 should keep the snow growth zone above the layer with the best lift. Visibility has fallen to 1/2 mile under the steadier snow and surfaces that initially were not accumulating have succumbed to the moderate snow rates. The mid-Hudson Valley remains mild in the upper 30s to near 40 and we limited the mention to snow to the higher terrain areas of Dutchess and Ulster County.

The best lift will exit into New England by 21z which will put an end to the moderate snowfall rates. The cold front moves through thereafter with light snow ending by early evening. Untreated roads and sidewalks could be slippery for evening commute so use caution if traveling. Total snow amounts expected to range 1 to 2 inch range for the Greater Capital District with 2 to 5 inches over the higher terrain to the east and west. Low-level southwest flow above the boundary layer will favor some upslope enhancement into the Rensselaer plateau, northern Berkshires, and Green Mountains where advisories are in effect. Mild temperatures south of I-90 will lead to a sharp north-south snow gradient with no accumulations expected near Poughkeepsie. Coatings to up to an inch is possible in the Catskills, NW CT and the central and southern Taconics.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. A period of gusty west to northwest winds and cooling boundary layer temperatures should support some lake effect snow showers into the western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks this evening. Winds will diminish later tonight and lake effect snow shower activity will likely shrink.

Improving sky and tranquil weather Saturday with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s with some mid 30s southern areas and lower to mid 20s northern areas. Warm advection begins Sunday and strengthens through Sunday night. The next system begins to organize to our west and some increasing clouds are likely through Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday in the mid 30s to near 40 but around 30 to lower 30s higher terrain.

By Sunday night, low level south to southwest flow increases as does moisture advection, supporting the potential for precipitation to begin in some areas after midnight. Temperatures will fall to near or below freezing in the evening, then temperatures warm between midnight and daybreak Monday. This will result in chances for mixed precipitation depending on how quickly or slowly temperatures warm. So, indicating just some chances for mixed precipitation Sunday night, including freezing rain in northern areas. More details on this will be known as we get closer to Sunday and Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Focus here is on warm and wet period Monday and Tuesday. Models continue to advertise a significant rain event coupled with temperatures running 15 degrees above normal during the day and 15- 20 degrees above normal at night.

High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will range from the mid 40s to low 50s in valley locations, to upper 30s to mid 40s in higher terrain. Some hints in the extended MOS guidance that temperatures could even be a few degree degrees higher than currently forecast.

Models in good agreement that a swath of 2-3 inch rain will occur across the Northeast U.S. during this period. Models are not in good agreement on where the heaviest rain will fall. Canadian and GFS forecast the heaviest rain to fall south and east of the Albany forecast area, although a local maxima is forecast across the southern Adirondacks. (Winds will be predominantly southwest during this event. Local research confirms that heavy rain - relative to the rest of the forecast area - falls in the southern Adirondacks during this regime.) The GEFS agree with this scenario as well, although there are hints here of southern and eastern locations in the forecast area having a chance of receiving heavy rain. Meanwhile, the ECMWF places the maxima over the southeast half of the forecast area with widespread 2 inch rainfall totals. So plenty to still to sort out over the next several days.

A check of meteorological parameters from the GEFS show 850mb winds 1-2 standard deviations above normal, PWATS 1-2 standard deviations above normal, and 850mb moisture flux up to 2-3 standard deviations above normal.

The deep snowpack will ripen due to warm temperatures and rainfall with at least some runoff and rises on area rivers. However it is too early to determine if there will be a flooding threat during this period.

A strong cold front will sweep across the area Tuesday afternoon sending temperatures back below freezing. 850mb temperatures will run 1-2 standard deviations below normal Wednesday and Thursday. This yields temperatures on Wednesday about 5 degrees below normal and on Thursday around 10 degrees below normal.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Steady snow associated with a clipper storm will impact KGFL/KALB/KPSF through the early evening hours. Within snowfall, visibility will be reduced to 1SM with IFR conditions. Cannot rule out a few moderate bursts, so will include a TEMPO for LIFR conditions with visibility of 1/2SM to 3/4SM. Further south, KPOU will miss most of the precip, but a stray rain/snow shower will be possible, so will address with a VCSH. Winds will be out of the south, mainly at light speeds of 5 kts or less.

The storm's cold front will move through around 23z-00z and winds will switch to the northwest. Winds may briefly pick up this evening to around 10 kts with a few higher gusts, especially at KALB/KPSF. Although precip will have ended, lingering clouds around 2-3 kft will continue for a few hours, especially at KPSF, where MVFR conditions may linger for a little while.

Clouds should clear out by midnight for the valley sites with winds becoming lighter from a northwest direction. However, clouds look to increase once again after daybreak Saturday thanks to northwesterly flow moving across the eastern Great lakes. Some MVFR cigs may return for Saturday, especially at KALB/KPSF.

Outlook .

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of RA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Scattered SHRA. SHSN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHSN.

HYDROLOGY. Temperatures will remain below normal through Sunday, so little melting and/or runoff is expected through the next several days. A period of light snow is expected today. This will allow the snow pack to be maintained and for some ice to build on shallow waterways, especially during the overnight hours.

Temperatures will likely rise to above normal values by Monday into Tuesday, with periods of rain likely. This will likely lead to at least some ripening and melting of the snowpack and runoff, although it is too early to determine if there will be a flooding threat during this period. Rises on area waterways are likely during this timeframe.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including latest observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ054. MA . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MAZ001. VT . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for VTZ013.

SYNOPSIS . NAS NEAR TERM . MSE/NAS/Speciale SHORT TERM . NAS LONG TERM . OKeefe AVIATION . OKeefe HYDROLOGY . NAS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 36 mi100 min SSE 1 33°F 1014 hPa30°F
TKPN6 37 mi76 min S 8 G 9.9 33°F 36°F1014.3 hPa32°F
NPXN6 49 mi100 min SSE 6 37°F 1017 hPa26°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 98 mi70 min SW 12 G 14 42°F 40°F1015.4 hPa (-4.0)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 99 mi76 min SW 11 G 15 43°F 45°F1015.3 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY16 mi19 minSSE 31.00 miLight Snow33°F28°F82%1012.6 hPa
Schenectady Airport, NY24 mi18 minNNE 41.50 miLight Snow28°F28°F100%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KALB

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Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
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Fri -- 01:13 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:15 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:18 PM EST     4.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:47 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.23.62.721.30.6-00.21.22.43.33.94.24.13.42.72.21.50.70.51.12.133.6

Tide / Current Tables for New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York
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New Baltimore
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:13 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:48 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:01 PM EST     4.37 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:20 PM EST     0.75 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.23.52.61.91.30.50.20.81.92.93.64.14.44.13.32.72.21.40.80.91.72.63.43.9

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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