Thursday, October17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beverly, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 6:00PM Thursday October 17, 2019 2:41 PM EDT (18:41 UTC) Moonrise 8:24PMMoonset 10:31AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 116 Pm Edt Thu Oct 17 2019
.gale warning in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..SW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas around 10 ft. Showers likely.
Tonight..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas around 7 ft, subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Edt Thu Oct 17 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. 975 mb low over eastern ma in the predawn hours will lift into northern new england this afternoon, shifting winds to the nw at gale force gusts. Diminishing nw winds Fri and Sat as high pressure builds over the east coast. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beverly city, MA
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location: 42.54, -70.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 171748
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
148 pm edt Thu oct 17 2019

Synopsis
Strong low pressure will slowly push across northern new
england today resulting in strong to damaging wind gusts along
with a few showers at times. Drier conditions will follow on
Friday, though it will be blustery and cooler. Warming trend
with dry weather for the weekend. More active weather than looks
to resume for early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
145 pm update...

* strong to damaging wind gusts continue this afternoon
strong cyclonic flow continued around the powerful low pressure
system now located across north central nh. This was resulting
in an abundance of clouds and some showers at times. While a few
showers impacting most areas from time to time, the bulk of the
activity was focused along the berks and western slopes of the
worcester hills. This was being driven by the upslope flow and
being closer to the upper level dynamics.

The strong pressure gradient around the storm continued to
result in wsw wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph across much of the
region. The strongest of those winds were located along the
coastal plain. Some peeks of Sun at times across the
cape islands have allowed for steeper low level lapse rates.

That coupled with the core of the LLJ were resulting in 50 to 60
mph wind gusts. Therefore, high wind warnings continue for the
cape islands with advisories for the rest of the region. Even in
areas where winds are technically below criteria, fully leafed
trees continued to result in some tree damage so headlines are
certainly warranted everywhere.

Current temps were mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s across
the interior, where showers were a bit more numerous. The
coastal plain had generally readings in the middle to upper 50s
allowing for the stronger of those wind gusts. Expect these
conditions to continue for the remainder of the afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
430 am update:
tonight...

vertically stacked low along the me coast this evening exits
into the maritimes. So any lingering isolated showers in the
evening will quickly give way to a drying trend along with nw
winds diminishing but still remaining somewhat gusty especially
cape cod and the islands. Seasonably cool tonight with lows in
the 40s.

Friday ...

not as cool given rising heights warming temps aloft. However
with cyclonic flow persisting expecting a fair amount of diurnal
clouds. Mid levels are dry so that should be sufficient to
preclude any diurnal showers. Highs 55-60 but low 50s high
terrain and there will be a cool wnw breeze as well given pgrad.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
No updates to the extended given the active weather overnight.

Previous discussion below.

================================================================
highlights...

* blustery, cooler weather continues into Friday. Possible frost
Friday night?
* warming trend and drier for the weekend.

* active pattern resumes late weekend - early next week, though
with a high degree of uncertainty on which day(s) are more
unsettled than not.

Details...

Friday:
cyclone to affect much of new england over the next 24-36 hrs
looks to be centered over northeast me by early Friday per most
model guidance, weakening filling as it does so. Cyclonic flow
aloft should be maintained though will also be steadily losing
overall influence as we the day. That being said, presence of
continued 925- 700 mb thermal trough amid lightening northwest
flow and residual shallow moisture ... It gives a continued
cool, blustery day looks likely for Friday. Northwest gusts
25-35 mph still look possible during the day as lapse rates
steepen, albeit through a smaller mixing depth. Look for
variable amounts of cloud cover - tending closer to mostly
cloudy further north and less so further south and east - and
there might still be enough moisture to wring out sprinkles
north of route 2 but nothing significant. However, most areas
should see thinning cloud coverage later in the day. Highs in
the 50s.

By Friday night, we start to feel subsident effects of surface
ridging, with trends toward clearing skies and lightening nw
winds. Question remains on how quickly each of these occurs -
which will crucially affect lows. Though thermal advection
transitions toward neutral levels for the evening, could have
some frost freeze concerns to contend with in areas where the
growing season is still declared as active (e.G. Most areas
outside of the pioneer valley, northern worcester and northern
middlesex counties). Mos-based guidance usually is the coldest
in such radiational situations, temps close to the met-based mos
would bring a widespread frost, with even some sub-freezing
lows in western central ma and northern ct. Given uncertainty in
how quick NW gradient winds subside and on prospects for
clearing, will use a guidance blend as a starting point but give
some weight to some of the cooler MOS as well. Brings lows into
the mid upper 30s to low 40s.

Saturday to Sunday:
quiet weather pattern resumes for Saturday into a good part of
Sunday for most, with large surface ridge settling in and
eventually shifting east of the region. Warming trend to
temperatures as well with 850 mb temps rising to the upper
single digits celsius.

Deterministic models, however, diverge on handling of energy
coming out of the gulf of mexico later Sunday Sunday night. This
leads to questions greater forecast uncertainty for the
remainder of the period. NHC has designated an area of disturbed
weather over the southwest gulf of mexico with some tropical
development potential. Gfs ECMWF gem develop a low from this
area into the northern gulf early Saturday which takes a
decidedly miller-a analog storm track from there into the
coastal carolinas by Sunday. That's really about all that's
agreed upon, though, as the international guidance more or less
weakens and keeps the cyclone closer to the mid-atlantic coast
thru the weekend. On the other hand the GFS pulls the system
well offshore to at least a well-developed gale south of the
40n 70w benchmark - which would bring greater impact to our
coastal offshore waters with enhanced E ene flow and building
seas, with some showers toward the south coast, CAPE and
islands.

Will lean towards dry for the weekend until there's greater
consensus on the gulf coast system.

Early next week:
forecast uncertainty and spread in guidance for late Sunday
also affect the forecast into early next week.

Does look to be overall a pretty unsettled period, with an
amplified trough ridge pattern across the eastern two-thirds of
conus. Strong mid-latitude cyclone over the northern plains
Monday with a trailing cold front into the lower ms valley
should progress E neward into southern new england either
Tuesday or Wednesday, though which day(s) may have higher
chances than others remains uncertain. Used a model consensus
blend in this period until better certainty and agreement in
details become more evident.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ...

this afternoon... High confidence. Low endVFR to MVFR CIGS will
persist through the remainder of the afternoon. Bulk of the
lower CIGS along with a few showers will be focused northwest of
the bos-pvd corridor. Wsw gusts of 30 to 40 knots northwest of
i-95 and between 40 and 50 knots southeast of that region. The
strongest winds were located across the CAPE islands. Some
showers mainly across the interior will gradually dissipate
through early evening.

Tonight... High confidence.VFR conditions with a broken deck of
clouds, but some MVFR CIGS will be possible at times mainly
across the interior. W wind gusts will diminish to between 15
and 30 knots this evening in most locations. Gusts of 30 to 40
knots will remain possible for a good portion of the evening
across the CAPE ack, but the trends will be downward.

Friday... High confidence. MainlyVFR conditions despite some
scattered to possibly broken CU at times. NW wind gusts of 20
to 25 knots.

Friday night... High confidence.VFR conditions continue as nw
wind gusts diminish.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Saturday through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

Saturday through Sunday night:VFR.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

Today...

storm force SW wind gusts continue across the waters from cape
cod southward with strong gale force across the northern
waters. Scattered showers should redevelop by early afternoon at
least across our northern waters.

Tonight...

powerful low over me moves slowly into the maritimes. W-nw
gales but dry weather and good vsby.

Friday...

gale center over the maritimes slowly weakens with subgale w-nw
winds over the ma ri waters. Dry weather and good vsby.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

Friday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Wind advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for ctz002>004.

Ma... High wind warning until 6 pm edt this evening for maz022>024.

Wind advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for maz002>021-026.

Ri... High wind warning until 6 pm edt this evening for riz008.

Wind advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for riz001>007.

Marine... Storm warning until 8 pm edt this evening for anz232-233-
254>256.

Gale warning until 9 pm edt this evening for anz230.

Storm warning until 7 pm edt this evening for anz231-234-235-
237.

Gale warning until 8 pm edt this evening for anz236.

Gale warning until 6 pm edt this evening for anz250-251.

Synopsis... Nocera evt
near term... Frank
short term... Nocera evt
long term... Loconto
aviation... Frank evt
marine... Nocera loconto evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 14 mi97 min 56°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 16 mi51 min SW 29 G 37 55°F 57°F6 ft981.2 hPa (+1.4)44°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 17 mi59 min 54°F 56°F981.3 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 31 mi41 min SW 38 G 41 50°F 978.8 hPa (+1.4)43°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 36 mi116 min SW 11 51°F 979 hPa43°F
44073 37 mi157 min SW 27 G 35 56°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 39 mi33 min 56°F12 ft
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 43 mi51 min SW 25 G 31 55°F 9 ft983 hPa (+1.4)41°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 49 mi97 min SW 27 G 35 52°F 56°F13 ft977.9 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA6 mi48 minSW 18 G 309.00 miLight Rain and Breezy51°F43°F74%980.9 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA15 mi47 minSW 27 G 4010.00 miOvercast and Windy56°F39°F55%982.4 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA20 mi47 minSW 15 G 2910.00 miLight Rain49°F43°F80%981.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBVY

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW7W7W4SE4CalmCalmS3SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE8SE10SE12SE12SE11
2 days agoSE7SE7SE8SE6SE8SE6S4CalmCalmNW6W3NW5NW4W5W5W5NW6NW6NW9NW11NW76
G15
W85

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead, Massachusetts
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Marblehead
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:00 AM EDT     9.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:59 AM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:08 PM EDT     9.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.98.498.46.9531.40.71.53.35.47.38.99.69.27.75.63.41.50.20.21.63.6

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:40 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:36 AM EDT     -0.34 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:13 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:24 AM EDT     0.47 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:59 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:00 PM EDT     -0.38 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:45 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:49 PM EDT     0.43 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.30.2-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.10.20.40.40.40.2-0-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.20.10.4

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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.