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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 955 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Clear this evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots in the late morning and early afternoon. Mostly cloudy with light showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the evening. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 080458 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1158 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

AVIATION

Late evening observations indicate broken cirrus covering the central Great Lakes leading up to midnight. A new round of lower to mid level clouds is also expected to develop along and north of a reinforcing warm front organizing from the northern Plains into the Ohio valley. Upstream observations suggest the lower cloud trend is behind schedule based on earlier guidance, although a component of overhead development is expected during the late night with VFR ceiling in the 4000-5000 ft range. Low level wind shear will also be monitored within the surface to mid level frontal zone but so far is not quite strong enough for a mention in the forecast. VFR ceiling below 5000 ft then holds by afternoon as wind gusts build to around 20 knots followed by increasing potential for MVFR ceiling as the Gulf moisture connection strengthens into Friday night.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 feet by mid morning through Friday night.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 329 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

DISCUSSION...

The combination of ongoing warm air advection with help from early December solar insolation has aided in boosting temperatures into the mid to upper 40s this afternoon, low 40s within the Thumb. Dry weather will prevail overnight with lows in the low to mid 30s. The development of low pressure system across the northern Plains and parent wave will amplify the ridge across the Great Lakes tomorrow and will result in an even better push of warmer air which will expand across SE MI, noted by h925 temperatures increasing from 1-2C this afternoon to 5-6C by the same time tomorrow. Expect dry conditions to continue under this stable ridging pattern with warmer temperatures, as highs breach the 50 degree mark.

The upper-level wave which has now arrived onshore above northern California, which will be shortly followed by a 130 knot jet core aloft, will travel into the Four Corners tomorrow afternoon. The arrival of this feature over the Texas Panhandle will draw a weak area of low pressure and a pool of Gulf moisture northeast through Saturday morning and afternoon. The low pressure is expected to track over Lake Michigan, placing SE MI in the warm sector with PW values expanding aoa .75 inches. This process will advect the warmest temperatures of the week starting Saturday morning which will result mild overnight temperatures Saturday morning where forecasted lows hold in the 40s and will boost temperatures into the mid to upper 50s by the daytime. Record high temperatures may be challenged, especially for the Detroit area.

Widely scattered to numerous light rain showers will be possible Saturday morning and afternoon on the nose of the enhanced theta-e gradient as the deep extension of the jet fills in across SE MI, with the higher PoP chances favored over the Tri-Cities given the closer proximity to the low and elevated frontal boundary.
Conditions will be stable enough to hamper mixing depths to minimize the potential of stronger gusts pulling down to the surface in the morning and early afternoon. This does change as low pressure continues to push northeast into Ontario, which will push a strong cold front across the state some time between 18Z Sat - 06Z Sunday, pending timing differences between models. Sounding profiles turn more neutral along the front and mixing depths peak just behind the frontal passage as the jet starts to work out of the Great Lakes.
This small window will be the time where some elevated gusts to or above 35 mph will be possible. There will be continued chances for rain showers with the passage of the front.

Further amplification of the upper-level trough and sheared wave will enhance a baroclinic zone that will align from eastern Texas through the easter Ohio River Valley. The strong moisture axis will reside along or east of this with some low pressure perturbations developing across the Ohio Valley. Latest model guidance continues to support most if not all of this precipitation potential holding southeast of the cwa Sunday morning, but a sub-sample of ensemble members do clip portions of SE MI, generally along of south of a line from Port Huron to Adrian. Temperature profile looks warm enough to support rain for this lingering precipitation potential Sunday morning.

Polar air will fill in across the state on Sunday with h850 temperatures dropping down between -6 to -10C. Lake effect rain/snow showers will become increasingly likely through the day as the cooler air is advected into the region. Temperature highs will drop roughly 20 degrees with a return into the 30s (low 40s over the Metro region) expected Sunday. Lake effect potential will be possible through Monday morning. Medium-range ensemble models are starting to show decent agreement that high pressure fills in through the early and middle of next week, bringing a period of quieter weather.

MARINE...

Weak low pressure moves out as an upper level ridge brings warmer and drier conditions to the Great Lakes. The next low pressure system, currently over the Dakotas, begins to influence the region on Friday as a tightening pressure gradient strengthens the wind field. Winds will back to become southerly overnight, ramping up to 15-20 knots during the day Friday. The main low pressure system will move northeast towards the Hudson Bay on Saturday, dragging a cold front and an associated chained low across the lakes, bringing chances for rain. Winds will reach 20-25 knots on Saturday, with gusts having the potential to reach near gale force. However, winds will have some trouble mixing downward during the day Saturday, and model guidance is trending downward in terms of gale potential.
Those factors combined with a limited time frame in which gusts that reach the surface will be gale force, no gale watch will be issued at this time. However, Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed on Saturday. As the low pressure system moves out on Sunday, a broad high pressure will take control and bring a return to drier conditions.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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