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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 905 Pm Cst Sat Dec 2 2023
Rest of tonight..East wind 10 to 15 knots veering southeast early in the morning. Chance of rain and patchy drizzle late in the evening, then rain after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Sunday..South wind 5 to 10 knots veering west late in the morning, then rising to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Patchy fog through the day. Rain in the morning. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots backing west late in the afternoon. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
wave heights are for ice free areas.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 030343 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 943 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

UPDATE
(Issued 943 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023)

Rain and snow associated with an approaching shortwave trough over ern IA and wrn IL is on track to overspread srn WI during the early morning hours. The pcpn will reach the Madison area around 07Z, the Milwaukee metro area around 07-08Z, and Fond du Lac and Sheboygan around 08-09Z. Pcpn type continues to be the challenge given the relatively mild and moist surface layer. The pcpn will begin as rain or a rain and snow mix with a best estimate of change over about a couple hours after the steady pcpn begins. However, all rain will continue along and east of a line from Sheboygan to Waukesha to Burlington due to the relatively mild onshore flow from Lake MI. The pcpn will continue through Sun AM, then diminishing in the afternoon. The expected snow accum forecast hasn't changed with 1-2 inches north of Madison and less than an inch elsewhere.

Gehring

SHORT TERM
(Issued 320 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023)

Tonight through Sunday night:

Low clouds will linger this evening, with some light drizzle possible moving onshore from Lake Michigan.

QPF trends with the 12Z suite of models continues to show a steady increase, with ensembles also showing this trend. There remains good synoptic upward vertical motion from the negatively tilted 500 mb shortwave trough shifting through the region during this period, along with some upper divergence from the left front quadrant of a jet streak overnight. There is some modest frontogenesis response in the 700 to 500 mb layer overnight as well. The dendrite growth zone is tapped, but the best upward vertical motion is above it.

Light snow will move northeast into the area between 04Z and 08Z Sunday, peaking 08Z to 14Z Sunday before slowly tapering off Sunday afternoon. Temperature profiles will be warm enough for all rain in far southeast Wisconsin including Milwaukee and Kenosha, with a mix between that area and all snow from a Fond du Lac to Monroe line and west.

Forecast QPF is generally in the 25th to 50th percentile of NBM away from the lake, and more towards the 75th percentile near it.
Forecast snowfall amounts have increased to around the 50th percentile of NBM, which generally gives a 1 to 2 inch accumulation northwest of Madison. Model Certainty continues to trend upwards as well, and the forecast QPF and snowfall amounts are around or below the 25th percentile there. This indicates that the QPF and snowfall amounts could trend upward more with later forecasts. The snow should cause some slippery roads in south central Wisconsin.

Low clouds should linger Sunday night, as the low departs the region. Forecast lows may be too cold given the expected clouds.

Wood

LONG TERM
(Issued 320 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023)

Monday through Saturday:

Models and ensembles are in good agreement with a clipper-type system shifting southeast through the region Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The 500 mb shortwave trough is fairly robust, and there is decent deep layer moisture to work with.
Temperature profiles suggest mainly light snow showers with this system, and brought PoPs upward to reflect higher confidence (60 percent) in the snow showers occurring. Snow accumulations up to an inch may occur, which ensembles seem to be indicating.

Cluster analysis of 500 mb heights indicate an anomalous ridge developing in the Northern Plains by the middle of next week, and shifting east later in the week over the region. The ridge should remain relatively amplified, which should lead to milder temperatures by later in the week, with south to southwest winds developing.

Wood

AVIATION
(Issued 943 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023)

Cigs will fall well below 1 kft for the early morning hours of Sunday as rain and snow overspread srn WI. The rain will change to snow over south central WI with a mixture continuing over se WI. Areas of fog will also develop with vsbys ranging anywhere from 1/2-4SM with the precipitation and fog. The very low Cigs will continue through Sunday into Sunday night while the rain and snow will gradually end Sunday afternoon.

Gehring

MARINE
(Issued 320 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023)

Low pressure will track toward the far southern portion of Lake Michigan tonight into Sunday morning. Modest east to northeast winds during this period will become north to northwest Sunday afternoon and night, as the low moves east of the region. Low pressure is then expected to move from North Dakota to southwest Minnesota Monday, then across southern Lake Michigan Monday night and southeast of the region on Tuesday. Modest winds Monday into Monday night should become north to northwest and increase Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds may reach Small Craft Advisory levels later next week, as milder air moves into the region.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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