Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fontana-on-Geneva Lake, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:23PM Monday December 16, 2019 6:58 AM CST (12:58 UTC) Moonrise 10:17PMMoonset 12:02PM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 506 Am Cst Mon Dec 16 2019
Today..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy in the morning then becoming partly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..West wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming west 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday night..West wind 15 to 20 knots veering northwest late in the evening, then becoming 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Scattered flurries through around midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight. A small craft advisory may be needed. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201912161700;;869225 FZUS53 KMKX 161106 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 506 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-161700-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fontana-on-Geneva Lake, WI
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location: 42.55, -88.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 161130 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 530 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

UPDATE. Snow has ended with totals around a half inch. Expect slick spots this morning on untreated surfaces. Dry conditions are expected for the rest of today.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS). VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the day today with clouds scattering out for the afternoon. Cloud cover will increase this evening as a mid level frontal boundary moves through. There could be a few clouds around 2,000 feet, but VFR conditions are expected to persist.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 319 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019)

SHORT TERM .

Today through Tonight . Forecast Confidence is High .

A 500 mb vorticity maximum paired with an 850 mb boundary provided enough lift for some light snow this morning. This lift will move out of the area in the next couple hours ending any accumulating snow. Total snow amounts of a dusting to an inch could create slick conditions for the morning commute.

Quiet conditions are then expected for the remainder of the day with light northwest winds. Another shortwave will move through this evening bringing with it a surge of dry air and skies clearing overnight.

Tuesday and Wednesday . Forecast confidence high.

A large upper low and associated sfc low will track from south central Canada to New England during this period. The sfc low will gradually deepen as it does so. Modest wly winds will prevail on Tue with high temps ranging from the mid 20s toward central WI to lower 30s far se WI. The winds will then shift nwly for Tue eve with a cold frontal passage. Flurries will be possible along and behind the cold front for several hours Tue eve. Clearing will then occur with continued cold advection and low temps mostly in the single digits for sunrise Wed AM.

Polar high pressure will then shift ewd across srn WI Wed aft-eve followed by developing sly winds and warm advection for later Wed nt. High temps on Wed only in the teens.

LONG TERM . Thursday through Sunday . Forecast confidence medium.

The GFS is now in much better agreement with the ECMWF for this period. Milder temps are expected as sly flow and warm advection develops ahead of an approaching shortwave trough from the wrn USA. The sfc low will track from SD to the nrn Great Lakes or srn Canada. A couple weak cold frontal passages may occur Fri nt and again Sat nt followed by high pressure for Sun. It appears at this time the airmass will remain dry enough for no precipitation.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS) .

IFR and MVFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings will transition to VFR values as snow tapers off over the next few hours. MVFR ceilings around 2,000 feet may move into the area this afternoon/evening with the passage of a front, but there may be enough dry air in the low levels to prevent this from happening.

MARINE .

Light westerly winds are expected today and shift to the northwest this afternoon and evening. Expect winds to increase Tuesday with northwest gusts up to 30 knots expected Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Winds will decrease Wednesday afternoon as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes Region. Southerly winds increase Thursday and could be gusty at times.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . RAR Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . RAR Tuesday THROUGH Sunday . Gehring


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 40 mi58 min WNW 5.1 G 7 23°F 1022 hPa (+1.0)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 48 mi48 min W 2.9 G 4.1 23°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI17 mi63 minNW 310.00 miOvercast21°F18°F88%1022 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUU

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW7W5W6NW6W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmN3N3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW7NW8NW9NW8NW10NW12
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.