Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fontana-on-Geneva Lake, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:49PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 11:58 PM CDT (04:58 UTC) Moonrise 10:30PMMoonset 10:50AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1106 Pm Cdt Tue Aug 20 2019
Rest of tonight..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering north with gusts to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing northwest in the late evening and early morning, then veering north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..North wind 5 to 15 knots veering northeast 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201908211000;;964273 FZUS53 KMKX 210407 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1106 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-211000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fontana-on-Geneva Lake, WI
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location: 42.55, -88.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 210447
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1147 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019

Update
The surface cold front looks to be extending near an eau claire
to eagle river late this evening. It should reach a sheboygan to
madison line by 12-13z wed. The forcing along the front remains
very weak, so only a slight chance for showers expected for now.

The forecast remains on track. The drier dewpoints will arrive
Wednesday morning in the wake of the front.

Aviation(06z tafs)
We could still see a period of MVFR ifr CIGS vsbys between about
10-15z Wednesday. This is along and ahead of an approaching cold
front that will slide south of wisconsin by mid morning on
Wednesday. Light winds ahead of the front will contribute to the
lower operating conditions overnight into early Wed morning.

Drier air on increasing northerly winds will lift conditions to
vfr levels by mid to late morning. Northeast winds are still
expected to develop nearly lake michigan by 16-17z wed. This would
mainly impact kmke kenw.

Prev discussion (issued 908 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019)
update...

the regional radar is quiet. It's tough to locate the surface
front given the very weak pressure wind field across the upper
midwest. From the dewpoint analysis, the front is likely still
over northwest wisconsin. The h8 winds are essentially northwest
all they way into southern wisconsin. So, we lack any decent
convergence along the weak low level boundary. Moisture remains
quite high and there is still some decent CAPE available, but
given the lack of forcing, it should be difficult to get any
showers to develop... Especially as CIN expands. The front should
exit southeast wisconsin shortly after 12z Wednesday. Then look
for the arrival of lower dewpoints through the day on Wednesday.

The light winds and available moisture should help produce some
fog again later tonight. But, those northwest winds just off the
ground may keep enough mixing around to preclude it from getting
too dense.

Marine...

light winds tonight will become northwest and increase to modest
levels Wednesday morning as a weak cold front pushes across the
lake overnight into early Wednesday morning. A large canadian high
pressure system will build into the region Wednesday into
Wednesday night. This will result in rather persistent northeast
to east winds for Thursday into Saturday.

Prev discussion... (issued 557 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019)
update...

no meaningful changes are needed to the forecast tonight. Our
focus is on the approaching cold front now located over central
wisconsin. It may help spark off some isolated showers or a
thunderstorms later this evening and overnight. It should be
pushing southeast of wisconsin right around 12z Wednesday. Light
winds, clear skies and the lingering high dewpoints could result
in some fog and or stratus again later tonight, but will clear out
quickly with the frontal passage Wednesday morning. The forecast
has all this handled well.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

expectVFR conditions through the evening. A weak cold front is
approaching southern wisconsin from the north. It may help trigger
isolated showers and storms later this evening and overnight.

Also, light winds, mostly clear skies and humid conditions ahead
of the front may result in MVFR ifr CIGS vsbys developing between
about 09-13z Wednesday. These lower conditions will improve to
vfr levels quickly Wednesday morning as the front pushes off to
the southeast and drier air arrives on northwest winds. Winds will
turn northeast near lake michigan by late Wednesday morning. This
will impact mainly kmke kenw airports.

Prev discussion... (issued 309 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019)
short term...

tonight through Wednesday night... Forecast confidence is medium
to high...

the remnant MCV from the morning convective system that moved
through il has been slow to kick east and is now south of kenosha
co. Light rain on the northern side of this has been moving into
the southern portions of milwaukee co. But as we go through the
afternoon expect all of this precip to diminish as the circulation
weakens and pushes east. Outflow from an earlier line of storms is
moving into the madison area now and although there is an increase
in surface convergence, satellite imagery, especially low-level
water vapor imagery would suggest drier air is moving in behind
the outflow boundary. This is resulted in a clearing of clouds
over the western portions of the area. It's still possible that a
few parcels could get lifted along the boundary to tap into some
modest instability of 1,000-2,000 j kg. However, the dry air
entrainment will likely keep storms from developing. Can't rule
out an isolated storm but things are going to be hard pressed to
develop.

Overnight the cold front will be nearing the region and very
isolated showers storms are possible along the front. With mostly
clear skies the lingering low level moisture ahead of the boundary
should allow for fog formation again tonight for a period. The
winds picks up as the front moves through and this should help to
mix the fog out closer to sunrise.

Caa will be taking place for Wednesday and highs will stay in the
70s. The drier air and slight breezes behind the front will make
for a nice day. Lows Wednesday night into Thursday bottom out in
the lower 50s.

Long term...

Thursday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is high:
high pressure will keep it dry across southern wisconsin through
the remainder of the work week and into the weekend. There should
be plenty of sunshine during this period, with temps a few degrees
below normal Thu Fri warming back to around normal by Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium to high:
southerly low level flow between departing high pressure and an
approaching low will bring warmer and more moist conditions to
southern wisconsin early next week. A chance for showers and
storms is likely to return as well, with some uncertainty as to
the timing of the better forcing and storm chances this far out.

Aviation(21z tafs)...

lingering light rain and isolated thunderstorms are possible until
00z for locations near the wi il border. Drier air in the low mid
levels will clear any low level cloud cover still hanging around.

Fog is expected to develop tonight after midnight but winds begin
to shift to the N NW closer to 12z. Gusty northerly winds are
expected for Wednesday behind the cold front.

Marine...

an isolated shower or storm is possible as a front moves across
the area overnight. Ahead of the front though, lingering low level
moisture could result in some fog in the nearshore waters tonight.

Winds and waves increase behind the front on Wednesday with gusts
to 20 knots at times and waves between 1 to 3 feet in the
nearshore and 4 to 6 feet in the open waters. High pressure builds
in on Thursday resulting in lighter winds and lower waves for the
rest of the week.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Davis
tonight Wednesday and aviation marine... Davis
Wednesday night through Tuesday... Ddv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 40 mi58 min WSW 6 G 8 72°F 1014.9 hPa (+1.7)
45186 42 mi38 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 73°F 75°F
45187 42 mi38 min W 3.9 G 5.8 76°F 74°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI17 mi63 minSW 410.00 miFair63°F62°F100%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUU

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmSE7--CalmCalmCalmW4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S4S4S5NW20
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.