Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sunset Bay, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Radar imagery showing showers and a few thunderstorms gradually expanding in coverage as they move across Western PA and into southwest NY.

A sharp mid level trough will move across the western Great Lakes today before reaching western Quebec Tuesday, with a surface low taking a similar track as the cyclone occludes and becomes vertically stacked. A warm front will race northeast across the eastern Great Lakes this morning, quickly followed by a pre-frontal trough and cold front later this afternoon and evening.

High-res CAMS guidance and global models all suggest the warm front will become more active this morning as it moves across the eastern Great Lakes, with a strengthening 45-50 knot low level jet enhancing isentropic upglide and moisture transport atop the sharp low level thermal gradient. The improved forcing should translate into increasing coverage of showers and a few scattered thunderstorms as the warm front moves quickly from southwest to northeast across the area through the first half of today. Any thunderstorms that develop this morning will be elevated, with updrafts rooted above a wedge of stable/cool air near the surface.

It will become quite windy today across Western and Central NY following the passage of the warm front, with gusts in the 25-35 mph range for most of the area. A brief favorable setup for stronger downslope winds will develop this morning to the lee of the Chautauqua Ridge, with a 45-50 knot southerly low level jet near the ridge top and a favorable near surface stable layer supporting acceleration of winds down the lee side of the Chautauqua Ridge.
Expect gusts up to 50 mph locally near Lake Erie, with a Wind Advisory in effect for Chautauqua County.

Expect a brief break in more organized showers following the passage of the warm front. Another band of showers and scattered thunderstorms will then move from west to east across the area later this afternoon and evening along a pre-frontal trough, with added support from DPVA and height falls ahead of the mid level trough axis. This band of convection will be surface based as it moves through near and just after peak heating. That said, instability will still be quite limited in the warm sector, which will keep the risk of any severe storms very low despite the relatively strong low level wind field.

Rain and scattered thunderstorms will end from west to east this evening with the passage of the pre-frontal trough and then the actual cold front, with partial clearing overnight as drier air advects into the eastern Great Lakes.

Dry weather will return Tuesday, with deeper moisture and forcing associated with the mid level trough staying well north of the area across Quebec. It will be quite breezy again, especially northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario where winds will gust in the 30-35 mph range.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Sfc based ridge will deliver mainly quiet, dry weather through a vast majority of the time period
That said
zonal flow aloft and a very weak and further weakening impulse (shortwave) is advertised to cross the region Wednesday afternoon. The most 'likely' scenario will be an increase in mid-high clouds, with little chance (< 20%) of precipitation. Heights then begin to build aloft Thursday in response to a trough digging across the upper Midwest. Moisture advection around the departing sfc ridge over our area will then bring a chance for a few showers as early as Thursday night
Otherwise
mainly dry and uneventful weather and a day to day warming trend, of which peaks on Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Deep moisture and embedded shortwave energy within the southwesterly flow aloft will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday through Saturday
After a wet start to the weekend
high pressure builds in behind the departing shortwave trough Sunday with fair dry weather through Monday.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A warm front will move northeast across the area this morning, quickly followed by a cold front later this afternoon and evening as a mid level trough and associated surface low moves across the Great Lakes. Increased forcing and moisture associated with these features will produce a few rounds of showers across the region from this morning through this evening. Elevated instability along the warm front this morning through midday will support scattered thunderstorms. There will be another chance of thunderstorms later this afternoon and early evening just ahead of the cold front. The rain and thunder chances will quickly end from west to east this evening with the passage of the cold front.

CIGS will remain VFR for most lower elevations, with some MVFR CIGS across higher terrain this afternoon through this evening. VSBY will be VFR most of the time, with brief restrictions in any heavier showers.

A strong 45-50 knot low level jet will cross the eastern Great Lakes today ahead of the cold front. This will produce a period of low level wind shear this morning through early afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR with showers likely, mainly later in the afternoon.

MARINE
Low pressure will move through the upper Great Lakes today before reaching western Quebec Tuesday. East to southeast winds will become more southerly today, with downslope winds producing locally higher winds along the Lake Erie shore adjacent to Chautauqua and southern Erie counties.

A cold front will move east across the area this evening, with southwest winds increasing overnight, then becoming west and increasing further on Tuesday. This will likely bring Small Craft Advisory conditions to both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Winds will gradually diminish later Tuesday night and Wednesday as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ019.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ042.