Essex, MA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Essex, MA

May 14, 2024 8:42 AM EDT (12:42 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:19 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM
Moonrise 11:05 AM   Moonset 1:36 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 704 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024

Today - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds.

Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds.

Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 3 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds.

Wed night - SE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 3 seconds and E 2 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of showers.

Thu and Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 9 seconds and se 2 ft at 3 seconds. A chance of rain.

Fri and Fri night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 6 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds.

Sat and Sat night - E winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 704 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024

Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - High pres off the mid atlc seaboard will maintain modest sw wind through Wed. A low pres should move E from the mid atlc coast Wed night into Thu, shifting winds to the se to E across the waters. This low pres slowly moves farther out to sea through Sat.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essex, MA
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 141048 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 648 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
Mild and mainly dry today with some uncertainty regarding how warm Wednesday will be. Heading into a cloudier and unsettled weather pattern for late in the week into the weekend, as a series of slow-moving upper level disturbances move through Southern New England. While it is not likely to be raining the entire period, at least hit or miss showers can't be ruled out at any time.
Temperatures for late in the week into the weekend trend trend slightly cooler than normal on high temperatures and milder than normal on the lows.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
648 AM Update:

Varying degrees of midlevel cloudiness continue across most of Southern New England; however there is a layer of broken to overcast stratus over the CT Valley in CT/western MA. The 00Z HRRR low level sky cover and RAP-based RH profiles are best handling this stratus layer and once mixing gets going by mid morning, expect any stratus to dissipate in entirety. By then, we'll be trending mostly clear in all areas and warming up thereafter. As we've been messaging via social media, today remains the pick of the week with full sun and dry weather with highs reaching well into the 70s to the lower 80s away from the coast, with readings in the mid 60s along the southern coasts where the sea-breeze has the best chance at developing. On the eastern coast, sea breeze should be kept at bay (pun unintended).

No changes to prior thinking pertaining to SHRA/TS chances, which remain low and the relative best chance being over the Berkshires. Our area remains under the influence of subsidence aloft from midlevel ridge and expecting any buildups to stay to our south and west. This is also supported upon review of recent convection-permitting guidance.

Previous discussion:

Today is shaping up to be the warmest and brightest of the next several days as mid level ridging builds in from the west behind a warm front that lifted through overnight/early this morning. Some lingering showers associated with the warm front should come to an end quickly after sunrise yielding clearing skies for many through the afternoon.

Anticipating very healthy mixing today, to as high as 750mb off model soundings, and with 925mb temperatures climbing to as warm as 18C and 850mb temps between 9 and 11C, temps wont have any issues climbing well into the 70s and low 80s across interior southern New England. The caveat to the warm temperatures will be along the south coast and areas north of Narragansett Bay, as brisk southerly flow off the cool ocean (SSTs in the low 50s) will keep temps in the 60s.

There will be a considerable amount of instability, with SBCAPE approaching 750-1000J/kg across upstate NY, that will fuel afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity, but with SB/MU CAPE struggling to climb to ~200 J/kg in our region, expecting most of the activity will stay to our north on the advancing edge of the mid level ridge, across VT/NH and NY. Hi-Res CAMs reflect this idea, with several SPC HRRR members keeping all shower activity out of our area through 00Z! With that said, can't rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm spilling over the Berkshires into far northwestern MA after 21Z this evening.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
Showers remain possible for western MA and CT tonight but weak mid level height rises have dampened the signal overnight for any widespread precip. While dewpoint depressions will be quite small, southerly flow overnight should remain brisk enough, between 5-10kt, to keep widespread fog at bay. Lows will bottom out in the mid to even upper 50s region wide, coolest across the Cape.

Wednesday's forecast proves to be a bit tricky as low pressure emerges off the mid-Atlantic coast. Overnight guidance took a significant step in the "drier and warmer" direction with low pressure remaining suppressed to our south for much of the day. With mid level ridge still in place, and 925mb temperatures still mild between 13-15C, the temperature forecast will be highly dependent on cloud cover and our mixing potential. Should sunshine break out for a good portion of the morning, it's very possible temps soar into the mid 70s region wide. With that said, anticipating cloud cover will be most robust across the CT River Valley, in part due to an eastward advancing weak boundary, so the warmest temperatures in our region will be across the Merrimack River Valley and across SE MA.
Given the rather sudden shift in guidance, heavily weighted the temperatures forecast using NBM, but later forecasters may choose a more aggressive temperatures forecast should a sunnier trend continue. In order to derive warmer temperatures, also trended the PoP and Sky cover forecast in a more favorable (clearer and drier)
direction that supports deeper mixing.

Shower chances will increase late Wednesday from south to north as the precipitation shield associated with the low is able push across southern RI and the Cape. Again utilized NBM for the QPF forecast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Highlights:

* Unsettled late week into the weekend, although below-average confidence in temps and rain chances in this period.

* Won't be raining the whole time, with Fri offering some potential for drier weather, but generally cloudy with periods of at least possible showers.

* Seasonable to slightly cooler than normal highs, with milder nighttime lows.

Details:

Global ensembles point to a generally unsettled and slow-evolving pattern through a large portion of this forecast period. Southern New England's weather looks to be governed by a weakening/filling upper low detached from the westerlies through late in the week, then right on its heels is another shortwave disturbance that is poised to approach and cross our area around the weekend.
Unfortunately that's really all that can be said as there is quite a bit of uncertainty as far as the location and progression of these two trough features; thus, below-average forecast confidence in temps, PoP and rain amts in light of this uncertainty in mass field details. Took a pretty broad-stroked brush as far the forecast goes in this period; while most days have some mentionable PoP, it there will likely be periods of dry weather in between and it is not likely we're looking at significant rain amts. With a cloudier-than- not forecast period and a few days of onshore breezes leading to shallower mixing depths, highs were seasonable or slightly cooler than normal and lows were milder than normal.

Wednesday Night through Friday:

Upper low initially over the OH Valley early Wed night progresses slowly offshore of the NJ coast and deamplifying as it does so; this puts SNE on the northern end of the upper-level circulation. These signals are not typically conducive to significant precip, with the better chances for steadier light rains on Thurs and mainly south of the Mass Pike. I do think the 00z GFS depiction regarding the eastward progression is still too progressive and leaned somewhat toward the slower ECMWF/GEM evolution. With E/SE onshore flow, highs in the upper 50s to low 60s near the coasts with highs well into the 60s; however 850 mb temps are quite warm (around +8 to +10C) and would favor highs several degrees warmer if we can fully mix, but I just don't see that happening.

With weakening shortwave ridge axis poking NE into SNE around Fri, that could be a relatively drier day with lower (around 15-20%) PoP indicated for Fri. Highs Fri could reach into the lower to mid 70s in the CT Valley and western MA, with cooler 60s readings the further east one goes.

The Weekend into Monday:

This latter period perhaps is the most uncertain with guidance struggling with poor congruence both across modeling systems but also from run-to-run. Interaction, if any, between the slowly- exiting late-weekday upper low and an approaching trough from the OH/TN Valleys probably is contributing to that run-to-run disparity.
Opted to keep the forecast with a mention of PoP along with a considerable degree of cloud cover, but that will need to be better defined once models show better agreement in timing and placement of key features. While there are some solutions which indicate a dry weekend and favor better rain chances on Monday, it's probably too hasty to lock in that drier outcome just yet.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12Z TAF Update:

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. Scattered showers are possible across northern MA, with at times briefly lower VFR CIGs 3-5k ft. Winds are south to southwest 5 to 10 knots.

Today: High confidence.

VFR. There could be a spotty SHRA/TS around or west of the Berkshires but unlikely anywhere else in Southern New England.
Steady southwest winds with gusts developing in the afternoon 20 to 25 knots.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR with lowering cigs to around 4000-5000ft in western MA/CT by daybreak where isolated showers are possible. Winds remain persistent from the S/SW overnight.

Wednesday... Moderate Confidence

Tricky forecast Wednesday with low pressure to our south, but drier trend has developed. Generally VFR with pockets of MVFR. Isolated shower chances persist for western MA/CT but a mix of sun and clouds for eastern terminals. Showers associated with low pressure will remain south until early evening but may impact Cape/Islands/srn RI terminals by 00Z. S/SW winds shift to the SE.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

VFR. Breezy southwest winds with gusts 20 to 25 knots mitigate sea-breeze potential today.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Early IFR ceilings should prevail until about 13z before trending VFR. Increasing wind speeds Tuesday with gusts 20 to 25 knots possible. Isolated shower chances late this evening.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance RA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Update: 3 AM

Through Wednesday....

S/SW winds persist through Tuesday night before shifting to the SE Wednesday afternoon. Gusts to 25kt possible this afternoon for our far NE waters, though the short fused and small zonal coverage nature of the conditions has prompted us to hold off on a Small Craft Advisory between 15-03Z this evening.
Generally dry on today with isolated shower chances for the eastern waters this morning. Shower chances increase for the southern waters late Wednesday as low pressure creeps north from the mid- Atlantic coast.

Outlook /Wednesday Night

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Chance of rain showers.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 11 mi158 min S 9.7G12 51°F 51°F2 ft30.03
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 17 mi62 min SSE 9.7G12 51°F 51°F30.0449°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 22 mi84 min 54°F 30.01
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 28 mi102 min S 12G13 52°F 30.0049°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 33 mi117 min 0 53°F 30.0150°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 34 mi76 min 51°F3 ft
SEIM1 35 mi84 min 54°F 51°F30.0353°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 41 mi92 min 50°F2 ft
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 45 mi158 min SSW 14G16 52°F 52°F3 ft29.99


Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KBVY BEVERLY RGNL,MA 9 sm49 minS 0610 smPartly Cloudy55°F52°F88%30.01
KBOS GENERAL EDWARD LAWRENCE LOGAN INTL,MA 21 sm48 minSSW 0710 smMostly Cloudy55°F50°F82%30.02
KLWM LAWRENCE MUNI,MA 22 sm48 minS 0410 smOvercast55°F50°F82%30.03
Link to 5 minute data for KBVY


Wind History from BVY
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Manchester Harbor, Massachusetts
   
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Manchester Harbor
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Tue -- 01:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:33 AM EDT     8.92 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:56 AM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:22 PM EDT     7.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:10 PM EDT     1.88 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Manchester Harbor, Massachusetts, Tide feet
12
am
3
1
am
4.5
2
am
6.2
3
am
7.8
4
am
8.8
5
am
8.8
6
am
8
7
am
6.5
8
am
4.8
9
am
2.8
10
am
1.3
11
am
0.8
12
pm
1.3
1
pm
2.4
2
pm
3.8
3
pm
5.5
4
pm
7
5
pm
7.8
6
pm
7.7
7
pm
6.9
8
pm
5.6
9
pm
4.1
10
pm
2.6
11
pm
1.9


Tide / Current for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
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Tue -- 01:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:47 AM EDT     0.35 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:28 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:57 AM EDT     -0.37 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:28 PM EDT     0.34 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:17 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:31 PM EDT     -0.31 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current, knots
12
am
0.1
1
am
0.3
2
am
0.3
3
am
0.3
4
am
0.3
5
am
0.1
6
am
-0.1
7
am
-0.2
8
am
-0.3
9
am
-0.3
10
am
-0.4
11
am
-0.3
12
pm
-0
1
pm
0.2
2
pm
0.3
3
pm
0.3
4
pm
0.3
5
pm
0.2
6
pm
0
7
pm
-0.1
8
pm
-0.2
9
pm
-0.2
10
pm
-0.3
11
pm
-0.3


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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Boston, MA,




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