Mount Clemens, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mount Clemens, MI

June 14, 2024 7:51 AM EDT (11:51 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 9:12 PM
Moonrise 12:55 PM   Moonset 12:53 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 350 Am Edt Fri Jun 14 2024

Today - North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.

Saturday - North winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the east early in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.

Saturday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Waves 2 feet or less.

Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

LCZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Clemens, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 141029 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 629 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry today with just a few isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon.

- Seasonable temperatures are expected today and Saturday before much warmer conditions take hold for most of next week.

- Temperatures climb into the mid to upper 90s Monday through Wednesday with max daily heat indices breaking 100F for many areas.

AVIATION

High pressure will expand across the Great Lakes region today.
Moisture will be somewhat limited in the wake of last night's cold frontal passage. Model soundings still suggest some semblance of diurnally driven higher based clouds (VFR). Weak afternoon instability will be supportive of an isolated shower or thunderstorm.

For DTW/D21 Convection...There is a chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm to develop between 2 PM and 6 PM this evening due the development of weak instability.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low in thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 349 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

DISCUSSION...

Southeast Michigan resides within the basal portion of a longwave trough today while the synoptic pattern is expected to amplify with time. The upstream ridge axis approaches the 60N latitude mark (near Northwest Territories, Canada) while a weak mid-level shortwave perturbation works through the composite trough digging into the central Great Lakes. This offers a period of minor height falls, locally, and northerly flow trajectories as a cold frontal boundary moves through. H8 temps decrease throughout the day, into the single digit range (Celsius), bringing relief from the previous day's heat with modest cumulus response once a deep mixed-layer develops to above 7 kft AGL.

Steep low-level lapse rates with cooler thermodynamic profiles lend a period of surface-based instability with afternoon CAPE values near 300 J/kg and 50+ knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. However, the convective response still ought to be rather muted given the lack of meaningful ThetaE advection. Forecast soundings reveal an inhibiting magnitude of dryness through the boundary-layer with evidence of weak capping near 12 kft AGL. Overall, did make adjustments to PoPs to account for isolated shower/storm development via broad-brushed Slight Chance mentions as the main arc of CVA passes through aloft after 16z. Should any storms develop, severe weather is not expected, but overachieving gusts pose the primary conditional threat given the enhancements to negative buoyancy through strong evaporative cooling potential. Highs track closer to climatological normals today (upper 70s to around 80F) while clear skies emerge overnight helping readings drop into the 50s.

The inflection point in the synoptic pattern crosses Lower Michigan Saturday morning resulting in column stabilization through active subsidence. A shift to anticyclonically curved trajectories causes low-level winds to veer ENE drawing in cooler Canadian air across Lake Huron. With no precip concerns and highs generally in the 70s (outside Metro Detroit), conditions Saturday will likely be the most comfortable through at least the next week in advance of a significant heatwave. 500 mb ridge marked by a geopotential height center of 593 dam situates over northern Georgia Sunday. Local flow shifts southwesterly with time while a ridge-running shortwave feature cruises through the Great Lakes. Discrepancies exist within the NWP model space wrt to the magnitude of associated rainfall, but variance is rather low regarding the placement. Most of the activity should remain north of M-46 Sunday evening with the GFS being the outlier given its southern footprint. Sunday also marks the initiation of the big heat wave next week as daytime highs top out in the upper 80s along/west of I-75 (cooler numbers further east).

The anomalously potent ridge for mid June builds north as mean column thickness values increase. Medium range solutions highlight areas of H8 temps in excess of 22C by 18Z Monday which aligns with the 99th percentile per the NAEFS and GEFS. Highs are now forecast to climb into the upper 90s for most urbanized locations while outlying areas easily peak in the mid 90s. In spite of a light breeze around 10 mph and afternoon dewpoints mixing out to the mid 60s, heat indices likely break 100F for several hours Monday afternoon.
Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Watches/Warnings will probably be needed in some form next week since the ridge only strengthens as the week progresses (albeit with eastward translation). 500 mb heights climb to 597 dam over Appalachia Tuesday before migrating northeast over Manhattan/Long Island where the heat dome maximizes at approximately 600 dam. EPS/CMCE/GEFS are all on-board with highs soundly in the 90s through Thursday with the only chance for relief dependent on the track/timing of any (remnant) MCS activity rolling in off The Plains. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity may also crop up across the CWA given MUCAPEs regularly in excess of 2000 J/kg. Overnight lows should also be quite warm starting Monday night, remaining above 70F each night.

MARINE...

A warm air mass continues to reside over the cooler waters, producing stable over-lake conditions. This will continue to minimize the stronger wind gusts mixing down to the surface, relative to the over-land nearshore zones. That said, isolated wind gusts around 25 knots will still be possible immediately along the land-lake interface with the southwest flow in place, especially into inner Saginaw Bay with the ideal fetch. These stronger wind gusts will diminish after sunset.

Otherwise, redeveloping showers and thunderstorms, some strong, will be possible this evening, focused mainly across central Lake Huron and locations south. Northern Lake Huron will still be susceptible to storms, some strong, through the late afternoon. Wind gusts to or in excess of 34 knots and small hail will be the main threats with any strong to severe thunderstorm development. The passage of a cold front late tonight into tomorrow morning will veer wind direction from southwest to northwest as high pressure builds in behind the front. This will bring lighter winds to the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning, lasting into the end of the week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 8 mi52 minNE 2.9G4.1 69°F 29.93
AGCM4 16 mi52 min 65°F 62°F29.89
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 35 mi52 min 65°F 29.89
PBWM4 36 mi52 min 65°F 29.89
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 37 mi52 minWNW 5.1G7 64°F 29.8957°F
45209 45 mi32 minN 3.9 60°F29.93


Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KMTC SELFRIDGE ANGB,MI 2 sm55 mincalm10 smA Few Clouds64°F59°F83%29.89
KDET COLEMAN A YOUNG MUNI,MI 15 sm58 mincalm10 smClear68°F57°F68%29.92
KVLL OAKLAND/TROY,MI 19 sm16 minN 0310 smClear68°F55°F64%29.95
CYQG WINDSOR,CN 22 sm51 minNNE 059 smClear66°F61°F83%29.92
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Wind History graph: MTC
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Detroit, MI,




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