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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 410 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 20 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening. Mostly Sunny in the morning becoming clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 110453 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1153 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

AVIATION

The mid level trough axis and associated light precipitation has shifted eastward leaving larger scale subsidence in its wake over Lower Mi late tonight. This promotes intervals of clear sky while a trapping inversion also develops to push lake effect streamers down into MVFR. Borderline VFR/MVFR ceiling will then be the general cloud mode along with a stray flurry while the wind direction holds NW through the morning. There is also a broad area of MVFR stratus over the upper Midwest which will be monitored while the guidance signal remains nebulous on how aggressively it moves into Lower Mi with advancing high pressure. The Midwest clouds are a sign that Lake Michigan will remain active regardless of how the upstream pattern evolves as NW flow backs SW by Monday evening.

For DTW... The mix of light rain and snow flurries ended by late evening with some breaks in the cloud cover likely late tonight.
Disorganized ceiling hovers around the VFR/MVFR threshold through morning with some gains closer to the 5000 ft range during the afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less late tonight into Monday evening.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 903 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

UPDATE...

The evening update extends timing of scattered flurries for a few more hours this evening and also serves to emphasize falling temperatures and the potential for slick spots during the morning commute. Influence of the mid level wave is holding on to produce a shallow area of flurries that quickly moves eastward by midnight. It leaves behind breaks of clear sky between lingering streamers of Great Lakes generated stratocu which could also bring a stray additional flurry during the late night. More notable is the clear sky periods helping drop temperatures well below freezing not long after midnight with lows in the mid to upper 20s easily reachable by sunrise. A few slick spots on area roads then become possible through early morning anywhere light NW wind is unable dry off driving and walking surfaces.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 429 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

DISCUSSION...

Neutrally tilting shortwave with finer embedded trough features crosses Lower Michigan this evening supporting some light shower activity amidst background lake-effect evapotransport. Low-level wind fields hold a northwesterly vector into the overnight hours before the final packet of CVA exits the state. Adjusted the forecast in favor of sprinkle and/or flurry mentions tonight as temperatures have largely overachieved, but with colder nocturnal air inbound, expect the cloud-bearing saturated layer to settle into the warmer end of the DGZ by 03Z. This supports a transition to isolated flurries for the overnight period. Temperatures drop into the 20s across the forecast area by daybreak.

Heights rebound locally Monday as PV consolidates to the east yielding increasingly stable conditions over the region. The upper level pattern becomes ridged over for approximately 24 hours offering dry and seasonably cool conditions. Forecast soundings indicate deep-layer subsidence by the afternoon and the eventual erosion/scattering of low stratus. Zonal low-level winds back to follow suit in the mid to upper levels during the overnight period as high clouds eventually spill in ahead of the next wave.

Upper low over Manitoba digs into northern Ontario Tuesday shoving an arctic airmass into the northern Great Lakes. The flanking frontal boundary extends well into the Ohio Valley, while the 850 mb thermal gradient suggests a spread in high temperatures Tuesday afternoon from northwest to southeast (upper 30s and lower 40s, respectively). Moisture quality concerns remain as peak PWATs within the pre-frontal ThetaE wedge remain 10-20 percent below climatological normals and soundings appear subsaturated wrt ice on either side of the 2-4 kft AGL layer. Wouldn't be surprised if a few flurries materialize given the low-level FGEN response through the stratocumulus deck, but not worth a mention in this outgoing forecast.

Surface high pressure slides out of the Eastern Plains and repositions over the Ohio Valley Wednesday maintaining column dryness. A thermal ridge spilling out of the Canadian Prairies moderates as it folds into the Midwest Thursday and Friday while 850 mb temps are now projected to hold AOB 5 C. This still translates to higher than normal temperatures, approaching 10F above. A frontal passage Saturday provides an opportunity for precipitation, but the GFS and ECMWF maintain large spatial variance with the next wave.

MARINE...

Cold thermal trough is centered over the Great Lakes Region today with an expansive frontal system moving towards the Atlantic Coast.
A weaker trailing frontal boundary is moving across the central Great Lakes this afternoon with a northwest post frontal wind direction. Cold air and some mid level shortwave support will bring lake effect snow showers for Lake Huron through this evening. The northwest flow will will build waves into the nearshores of the northern Thumb by tomorrow morning. This will bring marginal small craft advisory conditions as wind gust potential will top out around 20 knots. Overall lighter period of winds for the daylight period tomorrow. Southwest winds are then expected to ramp up Monday night through Tuesday morning as the next strong low pressure system moves across northern Ontario and drags a cold front through the region.
The potential for a period of gales will exist Tuesday morning and early afternoon for portions of Lake Huron. Cold air and a tight pressure gradient will maintain unsettled marine conditions into Wednesday with gusts of 25-30 knots common across much of Lake Huron.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Monday for LHZ441.

Lake St Clair...None.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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