Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Clemens, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 6:51PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 7:27 AM EDT (11:27 UTC) Moonrise 7:07PMMoonset 8:14AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 955 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. A chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the southwest after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Light showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Light showers likely in the morning...then a chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots early in the evening. Mostly cloudy in the evening becoming partly cloudy. A chance of light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201910150800;;722423 FZUS63 KDTX 150156 RRA GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 955 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.10 inches, will build across the Ohio Valley later this afternoon bringing calmer winds and drier conditions. This high slides to the eastern seaboard during the day Tuesday as another low pressure system develops over the western Great Lakes. LCZ460-150800-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Clemens, MI
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location: 42.58, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 151010
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
610 am edt Tue oct 15 2019

Aviation
A stable low-level profile remains in place today which will hold
vfr conditions through the course of the daylight hours with
upstream obs indicating just an increase in high clouds on the way
this morning. A strong low pressure system will track through the
great lakes tonight, bringing showers and deteriorating aviation
conditions this evening and tonight. A cold front will bring showers
in the 01z to 09z time frame and introduce MVFR CIGS that will
persist through Wednesday. Potential exists for ifr conditions
tonight coincident with frontal passage, but will leave out of tafs
until greater confidence is achieved.

For dtw... Most likely timing for showers occurs 03z to 09z with at
least MVFR expected during that time and afterward. Wind shift to
the west occurs around 08-09z.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings AOB 5 kft this evening through tonight.

Prev discussion
Issued at 330 am edt Tue oct 15 2019
discussion...

closed mid level circulation currently lifting east-southeast across
the northern plains on pace to take residence locally tonight and
Wednesday, setting the stage for another period of well below normal
temperatures for the latter half of the week. Emerging corridor of
modest warm air advection immediately downstream of this system will
bring a respectable warming trend today, particularly in light of
existing cold morning readings. The additive contribution of good
early day insolation potential will effectively bring afternoon
readings to around average for mid october - highs upper 50s north
to mid 60s south. Moisture advection tied to the isentropic ascent
remains rather lackluster and generally confined above 10k ft
through the daylight period. Little tangible forcing otherwise
outside of perhaps brief ascent associated with a weak impulse now
lifting across iowa. This may allow for a few widely scattered high
based showers or sprinkles late today generally north of i-69, but
overall limited precipitation potential prior to 00z.

The aforementioned closed low will undergo steady strengthening as
it lifts into the region tonight. Sharp height fall gradient on the
lead edge will drive the attendant cold front across southeast
michigan early tonight. An increase in mid level dynamics and upper
jet support coincident with the frontal arrival will translate into
an expanding coverage of showers as the boundary advances through
lower michigan. Looking at a several hour window for rainfall
centered primarily 01z-05z. Greater forcing set to emerge just
downstream across ontario ohio, effectively keeping rainfall amounts
more manageable locally less than .25" . A few rumbles of thunder
not out of the question given the dynamics and brief reduction in
stability as narrow ribbon of higher theta-e noses northward
immediately ahead of the front. Latter half of the night then
defined by post-frontal cold air advection within developing
westerly flow. Lows Wednesday morning in the 40s.

High amplitude upper troughing firmly entrenched during the
Wednesday and Thursday periods, as the governing upper circulation
only slowly exits to the east during this time. This will
effectively establish another stretch of colder conditions -
temperatures likely a solid 10 degrees below average during this
time. A secondary cold frontal passage Wednesday afternoon anchoring
the emerging deeper layer northwest flow on the backside of the
exiting upper trough low will reinforce this thermal profile. A
perturbed underlying environment featuring cold mid level cyclonic
flow in the presence of ongoing cold air advection, daytime heating
and a combination of both synoptic and lake moisture advection will
support a scattered coverage of showers, particularly during the
latter half of the day. West to northwest winds turning gusty by
afternoon - around 30 mph at times. Lingering ascent likely
perpetuates some light showers into Wednesday night. Dry and cold
northwest flow will then dictate conditions Thursday. Surface
ridging builds back in Thursday night, presenting another favorable
radiational cooling opportunity and the possibility for some frost.

Dry and gradually moderating conditions Friday, as a progressive
upper ridge lifts across the region. Deeper layer southwest flow
develops as the ridge axis settles east, establishing a more
meaningful warming trend over the weekend. Highs currently projected
to reach into the 60s both days. This pattern may yield a lower end
potential for showers at times throughout the weekend, but chances
still remain rather ill-defined at this stage. Another dynamic
system set to impact the great lakes Monday will bring a higher
likelihood of rainfall and the next push of colder air for next
week.

Marine...

winds back to the southeast and strengthen over the course of this
afternoon as a strong low pressure system develops over northern
wisconsin. Gusts over lake huron may reach the 25 to 30 kt range
this evening in advance of the system, but will weaken as the center
of the low moves over northern central lake huron late tonight. The
system pushes a cold front through overnight and introduces moderate
westerly winds for early Wednesday, gusting to about 25 kt, in
addition to periods of showers. The main impact of this system will
be felt by late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday as strong
northwest flow wraps around the low and has potential to produce
gales to 40 kt. A gale watch remains in effect for lake huron and
saginaw bay for this potential and small craft advisories will
likely be needed for the nearshore marine zones. The northwest
gradient remains elevated through Thursday as the low slowly departs
to the east.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Frost advisory until 8 am edt this morning for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake huron... Gale watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for
lhz361>363-421-441>443-462>464.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Tf
discussion... Mr
marine... ... .Tf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 8 mi27 min E 5.1 G 7 48°F 1020.3 hPa (+0.0)
45147 - Lake St Clair 13 mi87 min 48°F 55°F1019.6 hPa (+0.0)
AGCM4 16 mi57 min 37°F 54°F1019.5 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 35 mi57 min 41°F 1019.2 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 37 mi57 min SSW 1.9 G 4.1 36°F 1019.1 hPa33°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI3 mi91 minN 010.00 miFair35°F35°F100%1020.2 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI14 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair37°F33°F86%1020.1 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair38°F35°F92%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W4W7W10
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W11W5W8SW9SW11SW12W6SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS8S10SW10S11S14
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W7NW7W6W6W5W6W8W8W5W5W6W4W3
2 days agoSW9SW11SW9W11SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.