Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Clemens, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 4:59PM Sunday December 8, 2019 1:35 PM EST (18:35 UTC) Moonrise 3:11PMMoonset 3:51AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 947 Am Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Rest of today..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely in the evening...then showers after midnight. Areas of fog after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers in the morning.. Then rain in the afternoon. Areas of fog. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Cloudy. Areas of fog in the evening. Rain in the evening...then rain likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the evening. Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers and rain in the morning...then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon and evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201912082145;;041465 FZUS63 KDTX 081447 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 947 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...As low pressure, 29.60 inches, tracks across Ontario today, a cold front will move into western Lake Superior. Southwest gales ahead of this front are likely through this afternoon across central Lake Huron. The front moves over Lake Huron by tonight and stalls. Low pressure then develops along it and tracks through the central Great Lakes at 29.50 inches on Monday. The low exits the region Monday night with colder northwest wind to follow through mid week. LCZ460-082145-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Clemens, MI
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location: 42.58, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 081735 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1235 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

AVIATION.

MVFR stratus has shrouded most of southeast MI this afternoon and aviation conditions will continue to worsen through the TAF period as abundant low-level moisture continues to advect in on a gusty wind from the southwest. Areas of light rain develop this evening and tonight as low pressure strengthens over the midwest, then widespread rain moves through during the day Monday as the low tracks through northern MI. The milder and more humid air moving in today brings good potential for vsby reductions in fog tonight and possibly into tomorrow. IFR stratus develops this evening and persists through the period. Some LIFR ceilings will be possible late tonight, particularly around mbS, but will hold off on including in TAF for now until better observational evidence is presented upstream. Marginal LLWS will be most likely across the Detroit TAF sites for a few hours this evening /centered on 23-03z/, but slightly elevated winds at the surface should keep shear below 30 kt most of the time.

For DTW . MVFR cigs persist this afternoon with southwest winds gusting as high as 25 kt. Winds subside this evening as chances for light rain increase and ceilings lower to IFR in addition to the development of MVFR to possibly IFR fog. Moderate and more widespread rain moves in around 13z Monday, persisting into the early afternoon. Low confidence in LIFR conditions tonight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High confidence in cigs aob 5000 feet through tomorrow.

* Low confidence in cigs aob 200 feet late tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 358 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

DISCUSSION .

Increasing south wind helps lift temperatures above normal today while gusts near 30 mph add some harshness to otherwise favorable weather for early December. Expect a partly sunny start to the day under thickening cirrus followed by stratus that quickly moves in from the Mississippi valley during the morning. This snuffs out any benefit of daytime surface heating such as it is this time of year, however the strong southerly flow makes up for it by carrying milder air in on trajectories originating near the Gulf coast. It is a Gulf modified continental air mass but still capable of bringing lower to mid 40s dewpoint into Lower Michigan as the temperature rises into the mid and upper 40s by late afternoon.

Precipitation holds off through today but the low level warm and moist advection sets the table for rain development tonight as a cold front and low pressure approach from the west. Deep moisture transport ahead of the system brings precipitable water up to around 0.75 inch with 850 mb dewpoint near +5C, a moisture supply that is above the 90th percentile in climatology for this time of year. A general pattern of isentropic lift gets things started during the evening which increasingly interacts with left exit region forcing from the approaching upper level jet after midnight. Fog is also likely to accompany the mild air and saturated boundary layer as showers become widespread after midnight through Monday morning.

Temperatures hold mostly in the 40s to start Monday which is a head start toward highs capable of 50 during the afternoon. The warm air holds despite widespread rain showers ongoing as the associated short wave and surface low ripple along the cold front. The system moves into Lake Huron by Monday evening which allows the front to sweep through Lower Michigan. There remains some potential for lighter precipitation along and behind the front Monday night as the upper jet stays aligned with the low level temperature gradient and as a stronger mid level wave moves out of the long wave trough still to our west. A coating of snow is then possible as cold air rapidly surges in through the low levels. Model soundings indicate a change over to snow by midnight in the Tri Cities and Thumb while taking a little longer toward the Ohio border where precipitation ends before the change occurs.

Rain and snow associated with the low pressure system end by sunrise Tuesday morning. The day starts with temperatures in the 20s most locations with readings steady or falling through the day. The incoming cold air initiates moderate intensity lake effect snow showers that make it into SE Michigan with at least scattered coverage. Model soundings indicate convective depth near 6 kft during the morning before low level dry air and boundary layer mixing become a limiting factor during the afternoon. Parameters recover Tuesday night which may turn out to be the best time period for any organized banding stretching this far east. Model soundings indicate convective depth building back to near 7 kft with some reinforcement of low level cold air and low level support provided by a surface trough moving through the region.

The mid to late week period is set up by high pressure building over the western and central Great Lakes. This cuts off any lingering lake effect snow showers during Wednesday as the low level wind field veers NW. The core of cold air remains in place as shown by an aggressive guidance temperature forecast indicating high temperatures that struggle to reach the 20s by Wednesday afternoon, especially in the Saginaw valley. High pressure moving eastward then starts a warming trend Thursday with temperatures warming above freezing again by Friday. This is followed by the next chance of meaningful rain and snow with a low pressure system moving in this weekend.

MARINE .

Strong southwest flow over the lakes today will lead to gale force gusts across central Lake Huron into this afternoon - gusts as high as 40 knots where southwest fetch is maximized. A Gale Warning remains in effect through this afternoon for the central open waters of Lake Huron while a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Saginaw Bay and the nearshore waters surrounding the Thumb for enhanced wave action.

A low pressure system will track through the Great Lakes on Monday and bring widespread rain to the region. Snow showers then become more likely late Monday night the low departs and ushers in a much colder air mass. Winds look to remain below gales at this time, but expect a fresh northwest wind and increased wave activity, especially over the open waters of Lake Huron, on Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY .

An extended period of rainfall begins Sunday night and continues through Monday. Mild air with high moisture content for this time of year fuels a cold front and low pressure system moving across the region. Local probability guidance suggests rainfall totals approach a half inch. Locally higher totals are possible in locations where heavier showers occur repeatedly but with only a small chance to exceed an inch. A transition to mixed rain and snow is possible if any precipitation lingers long enough after the cold front moves through Monday night and Tuesday morning. The expected rainfall tonight and Monday may lead to ponding of water in prone areas and small rises on area rivers.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ421-422- 441>443.

Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ362-363.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . TF DISCUSSION . BT MARINE . TF HYDROLOGY . BT

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 8 mi35 min SSW 11 G 15 40°F 1015.6 hPa (-3.0)
AGCM4 16 mi47 min 39°F 39°F1015.4 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 35 mi53 min 40°F 1014.1 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 37 mi53 min SSW 15 G 22 40°F 1013.6 hPa31°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI3 mi1.7 hrsSSW 14 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F33°F75%1016.9 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI14 mi42 minSSW 99.00 miOvercast41°F34°F76%1015.8 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi40 minSSW 910.00 miOvercast39°F34°F84%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE9S8S8S6S7S7S7S9S10S9S11S11S9S10S12S10S11S11S8S12S13SW14
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1 day agoNW14
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N8N7NW6NW10NW7NW8NW7NW5W5W4NW4NW5NW3CalmW3CalmCalmS5S5S5
2 days agoNW9W6W4SW4CalmSE3E4SE3SE7S8S8S7S5S5SW7SW6W7W8W7NW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.