Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Clemens, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:52AMSunset 5:34PM Thursday January 23, 2020 9:18 PM EST (02:18 UTC) Moonrise 7:08AMMoonset 4:22PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 348 Pm Est Thu Jan 23 2020
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Light rain in the morning...then rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning...then becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Light rain in the evening...then light rain likely after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Light rain likely in the morning...then a chance of light rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Cloudy with a chance of light rain and snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. A chance of light rain and snow showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202001240915;;406857 FZUS63 KDTX 232048 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 348 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure, 29.90 inches, over Missouri today will slowly lift into Illinois tonight and Friday, deepening to 27.70 inches. This low will slowly track across Lower Michigan on Saturday before exiting to the east Saturday night. LCZ460-240915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Clemens, MI
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location: 42.58, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 232333 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 633 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

AVIATION.

Deep upper level low pressure circulation over Missouri will direct increasing amounts of low to midlevel moisture into Southeast Michigan tonight and Friday. The first feature of broader interest will be warm front/moisture axis that will lift northward into far southern sections of forecast area after 5Z tonight. Low confidence exists in precipitation breaking out with this first wave of theta e advection, but saturation increases enough that it will be feasible for some very light rain/snow mix to reach the surface mainly over Metro Detroit. A main theta e surge is forecasted to lift into the forecast area after 12Z which will be sufficient in bringing widespread precipitation potential to the Detroit terminals after 14Z. Warm conveyor and sustained moist isentropic ascent will then be directed into Southeast Michigan for the remainder of the day Friday. A deep wedge of dry air is then expected to lift due northward within the closed low pressure system arriving over southeast Michigan after 00Z Saturday ending widespread precipitation potential from south to north.

For DTW . Potential exists for very light rain/snow mix to develop after 5Z tonight. Low confidence in the development of the precipitation this early. Better forcing and confidence exists for widespread precipitation after 14Z Friday morning. Precipitation is expected to fall in the form of rain during the day Friday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for ceilings aob 5kft after 08z tonight, high after 14z Friday.

* Low confidence in precipitation type between 5-12Z tonight. The potential exists for a rain/snow mix. High confidence in precipitation type after 12Z Friday being in the form of rain.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 317 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

DISCUSSION .

Abundant upper level PV streaking south through the Central Plains today, with consolidation and spin up of mid level circulation over overing eastern Kansas, sliding through the Central Mississippi River valley tomorrow morning. Elongated/unraveling system will then track through the Ohio Valley Friday night and into the Mid Atlantic States by Saturday evening. Southeast Michigan will reside on the warm conveyor side tomorrow. Good moisture advection taking place tonight, as 850-700 mb specific humidity reaches 4.5 g/kg near the Ohio border by 12z Friday, then lifting/translating north through the day. Tough call on how successful lead isentropic ascent will be to generating precipitation before 12z Friday, as low levels will be fairly dry with a continued easterly feed at the surface. Subsequently, despite 925 mb temps looking to be +3 C this evening, significantly lower dew pts will be conducive for cooling/wet bulbing, even at the surface, which could support some light snow. However, just not sure rates will be sufficient to generate significant cooling. However, even if surface temps are 33 degrees or higher, ground temps/gravel roads could still be frozen tomorrow morning leading to some icy spots on the back roads. Any snow accumulation looks to be under 1 inch before milder low level air takes hold during Friday, into Friday night supporting just a cold rain, as surface low/low level circulation tracks through Lower Michigan Saturday morning. The 500 mb low is progged to reach up to the southern Michigan border before pivoting east and reaching the East Coast Sunday afternoon. Marginally cold (850 mb temps of -4 C) enough airmass and lingering cyclonic flow and one spoke of upper level energy rotating through on Sunday should be able to support scattered light snow showers.

Upper level ridge then moves through Sunday night-Monday before a shortwave trough tracks on Tuesday per 12z Euro, delivering a weak shot (for January standards) of cold air, as 850 mb bottom out around -10 C. Surface high in place for Tuesday night could lead to favorable radiating night if skies clear, and temps could be significantly colder than the outgoing forecast. The high pressure looks to linger into Wednesday helping to maintain a dry and still above normal temps forecast.

MARINE .

Surface flow will veer to southeasterly this evening as the next low pressure system approaches the region. Winds will rotate to easterly during the day Friday before slowly backing to northwesterly Saturday into Sunday as the low center crosses the lower peninsula. This system will bring a mix of rain and snow starting late tonight through the day Sunday. The low is not particularly strong with a weaker pressure gradient reducing the wind potential. A small craft advisory along the Thumb will likely be needed Friday night as southeast flow creates higher wave action along the coast.

HYDROLOGY .

Total rainfall tomorrow and tomorrow night is expected to come in around half an inch. Much of the snow pack will also dissipate, with about a half inch water equivalent to work with. Even so, flooding is not anticipated due to the slow release, but standing water in low level areas and rising river levels to near bankfull can be expected.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . CB DISCUSSION . SF MARINE . KK HYDROLOGY . SF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 8 mi78 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 33°F 1022.7 hPa (+0.0)
AGCM4 16 mi60 min 34°F 33°F1022.1 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 35 mi66 min 35°F 1022.2 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 37 mi66 min 35°F 1022.1 hPa26°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI3 mi82 minE 310.00 miOvercast34°F30°F85%1023.2 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI14 mi25 minESE 310.00 miOvercast34°F26°F73%1022.7 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi22 minN 010.00 miFair34°F27°F77%1022.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S7S5S7S6S5S5S4S6SE3SE4SE4SE5SE5SE7SE4CalmE5E5SE5SE7E5E3Calm
1 day agoS6S6S6SW7SW8SW10S11SW11SW7SW8S8S9S8S10SW9S13S10S10S9S9S10S11S8S6
2 days agoW5W4W4NW3W5NW6W6NW6NW7NW7W8NW3W4W9W10W8W7SW7S9SW8S8S7SW8SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.