Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Clemens, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 8:22PM Friday August 23, 2019 4:08 PM EDT (20:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:38PMMoonset 1:32PM Illumination 42% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 1000 Am Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Rest of today..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. A chance of waterspouts. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201908232000;;085107 FZUS63 KDTX 231400 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1000 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad Canadian high pressure system will become centered over the Northern Great Lakes today while strengthening to 30.30 inches. The expansive high will then move across eastern Ontario on Saturday before becoming centered over the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday. LCZ460-232000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Clemens, MI
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location: 42.58, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 231938
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
338 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019

Discussion
The center of the broad surface high moving across lake superior and
southern ontario will continue to influence the region today while
an upper trough axis swings into the eastern great lakes by tonight.

A convergence zone that set up earlier in the day brought isolated
to scattered showers across the thumb. These were supported by
instability over the lakes as north to northwesterly flow brought
reinforced cooler air over the warmer waters. Slight chance for
scattered shower activity has mostly come to an end off lake huron.

Isolated shower development will remain possible for the next hour
or so across the thumb to the i-69 corridor as the hybrid lake breeze
releases inland. The loss of daytime heating will allow any shower
potential to diminish by the evening. The remainder of southeast
michigan will remain dry with a general cloud clearing trend into
tonight as the upper trough axis moves east. Mostly clear skies will
bring another cool night with overnight low temperatures in the upper
40s to low 50s for much of southeast michigan.

Upper ridging and broad surface high will transverse the great lakes
region leading to ideal late summer weather conditions through the
weekend. High temperatures to start the weekend will be slightly
below normal as thermal trough is maintained under cooler north and
easterly flow. Temperatures at 850 mb will be in the 6-8 degree c
range tomorrow resulting in highs in the low to mid 70s. Humidity
will also be low with dewpoints in the 50s. The departing high
pressure on Sunday will bring some subtle airmass modification with
south to southeasterly flow pushing some warmer temperatures into
lower michigan. High temperatures on Sunday rebound to the mid upper
70s to around 80 degrees.

Strengthening LLJ and warm front amplification ahead of an
approaching upper-level trough will increase heat and especially
humidity across SE mi Monday into Tuesday as dew points rise from
the 50s into the low to mid 60s (Monday) and upper-60s to lower-70s
(Tuesday). Will only see a slight uptick in temperatures as they
will be modulated by extensive cloud cover and rain
showers thunderstorms. Best moisture transport will set up across
the great lakes and will allow pw values of 1.50 - 1.75 inches to
build in for both Monday and Tuesday. Some models advertising pw up
to 2.00 inches, but will stay conservative as it lines up more with
ensemble means. On and off showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the warm front Monday with additional help from
embedded shortwaves. Last, breezy conditions will be possible Monday
as tightening pressure gradient sets up across SE mi.

Stacked low pressure system drifting eastward from manitoba into
ontario will drag a cold front across michigan late in the day on
Tuesday (need additional model runs to pinpoint timing) which will
bring the last of the rain and thunderstorms associated with the
humid airmass, before cooler and dry canadian air filters in behind
the front. Post-frontal airmass will bring relief from the humidity
and temperatures as highs in the 70s hold, with gusty conditions
possible as CAA increases mechanical mixing. Long range models are
advertising a second cold front projected to move across michigan
sometime between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, which would
be the next chance to see precipitation late next week.

Marine
Stable high pressure will broaden further this weekend over the
great lakes bringing about cooler and drier air. Winds are expected
to veer a bit further toward the NE to around 15 knots before
backing northerly and dropping below 10 knots overnight. Primary
marine concern over the next few hours is the dwindling threat for
waterspouts given the warm surface temperatures of lake huron which
have aided in the generation of enhanced instability. Lake effect
showers capable of producing waterspouts have greatly diminished in
coverage and will trend toward clearer conditions by 21z for
southern lake huron. NE winds will continue until Sunday after which
a SE flow pattern sets up through Monday, coinciding with an uptick
in speeds in the 15-20 knot range Monday afternoon. Dry conditions
will prevail through the same period as high pressure remains in
control.

Prev discussion
Issued at 145 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019
aviation...

areas of isolated showers should remain east of the terminals for
the reminder of today as stable high pressure manifests over the
great lakes for the weekend. Mainly sct with brief periods bkn
cumulus coverage has been observed via goes-16 imagery as moisture
advection over the warm waters of lake huron helps to increase the
vapor content of otherwise drier lower-level air. Clouds will
gradually thin-out this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

Winds are expected to veer a bit further toward the NE before
backing northerly and diminishing overnight. So far, there have only
been intermittent weak gusts noted via asos. A dry,VFR forecast
will be maintained through the entirety of the TAF period as this
current pattern holds with more diurnal cumulus expected on
Saturday.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft through this afternoon
and again on Saturday from 21-00z.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Aa am
marine... ... .Kk
aviation... ..Kk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 8 mi68 min ENE 7 G 9.9 71°F 1022 hPa (-0.4)
45147 - Lake St Clair 13 mi68 min Calm 70°F 74°F1 ft1021.2 hPa (-0.2)
AGCM4 16 mi56 min 71°F 73°F1021.7 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 35 mi56 min 72°F 1022 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 37 mi56 min NNE 18 G 21 67°F 1022.1 hPa53°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI3 mi72 minNNE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F54°F57%1022 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI14 mi15 minENE 1010.00 miOvercast71°F50°F47%1021.5 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi29 minN 610.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F48°F39%1022.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N12
G18
N14NE11NE9--NE7------N5N4----N6NW6N6--N8N8N9NE10N6NE10
1 day agoW7W9W13W10W10--W4--------N7N8----N6--N8N7N6N7NW8N7N8
2 days ago----SE9S10SE10SW27
G43
--------------CalmNW3W5--NW5--CalmS3--SE8--

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.