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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Am Cst Tue Nov 28 2023
Rest of today..West wind 10 to 15 knots backing southwest late in the afternoon. Sunny around noon then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots after midnight, then becoming southwest 15 to 25 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Wednesday..West wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Partly Sunny in the morning then clearing. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Wednesday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots backing southwest late in the evening, then rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 281603 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1003 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

UPDATE
(Issued 1003 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023)

Clear skies and northwesterly breezes continue this morning, with a wind shift to southwesterly and increasing cloud cover this afternoon ahead of a weak shortwave that will progress west to east across far northern Wisconsin overnight. Highs in the lower to mid-20s are still expected today. Overnight lows continue to be a challenge, with southwesterly flow and low-level mixing keeping temperature potential higher. Still, lows in the 18-20 degree range are possible before temperatures begin to rise during the late overnight hours.

MH

SHORT TERM
(Issued 335 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023)

Today and Tonight:

The area of low clouds hovering over southwest WI is starting to thin and dissipate. Temperatures are slightly warmer under this cloud layer, but there is still the potential for them to drop to the forecast lows around 8F. As winds diminish more through sunrise, temps will also drop. With 925mb temps around -14C, this is the coldest air so far for the season overhead right now.

The ridge of high pressure will slide across WI during the morning hours and southwest winds will start to increase this afternoon, along with 925mb temps (and therefore our surface temps). Highs should recover to the lower/mid 20s despite increasing mid level clouds.

Low temperatures are a little tricky for tonight. The models (including the GFS ensemble, and to a lesser extend the Euro ensemble) suggest a quick period of cooling in the evening (with lows in the upper teens) before the better low level warm air advection kicks in overnight and warms temps into the lower 20s.
The pressure gradient will increase overhead tonight as high pressure gets into the southeast States and low pressure tracks across Ontario so expect steady southwest winds overnight.

Cronce

LONG TERM
(Issued 335 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023)

Wednesday through Monday:

Quiet and mild weather will ensue for southern WI on Wednesday as a trough develops over the southwest States. Temperatures will actually be right around normal (normal is around 37). Weak low pressure will slide across Ontario and drag a cold front through WI on Thursday so Thu nt temps will be chilly around 20. That southwest low will track across the lower Midwest and the precip is now expected to miss southern WI Thursday afternoon and night.

Another trough over the southwest States will track through the Midwest on Sunday, but this one is expected to phase with the northern stream trough which will lift the associated precip into WI. An active upper wave pattern will park over the Upper Midwest this weekend, so expect multiple chances for precip. The temperature profile looks like we will be just below freezing at 850mb with daytime surface temps above freezing. Therefore, the precip type is uncertain as it could be either rain or snow.

Cronce

AVIATION
(Issued 1003 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023)

VFR conditions are in place across southern Wisconsin, and are expected to persist through the afternoon into tonight. A cloud deck around 15k feet will slowly move in from west to east this afternoon and persist into tonight. Confidence is increasing in lower level clouds in the 3000 to 4000 feet range during the late overnight hours into Wednesday morning.

Northwesterly breezes this morning will shift to become southwesterly ahead of a shortwave tracking across far northern Wisconsin tonight. Southwesterly winds just above the surface are expected to be above 40 kts during this time frame, which will lead to low level wind shear as well.

MH

MARINE
(Issued 335 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023)

Gusty northwest winds will gradually diminish today as a ridge of high pressure slides across Lake Michigan. The Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 9AM/15Z. The lull in the winds will be short-lived though.

Low pressure tracking across Ontario tonight will lead to gusty southwest winds over Lake Michigan this evening through the overnight hours. Winds just above the surface will be over 40 kt, but they are not expected to mix down frequently. Therefore, a few gale force gusts will be possible. Another Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. Gusts over 25kt should persist into Wednesday morning, but diminish through the afternoon.

Cronce

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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