Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Kingsville, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
A front will remain draped across the Upper Ohio Valley region resulting in unsettled weather through the near term period. Showers will be slow to start today as the column remains dry this morning before a push of low/mid level moist air moves overhead this afternoon. Most CAMs are in agreement that showers and thunderstorms will be diurnally driven with showers likely beginning around 18Z this afternoon. Activity will mainly be rain showers with scattered thunderstorms given limited instability, roughly 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE, during peak heating this afternoon.
Additional moisture advects into the region by tonight which will increase shower and thunderstorm coverage tonight through the day on Saturday. Will need to keep an eye on flooding potential with showers and thunderstorms on Saturday as PWATs rise to the 1.7-1.9 inch range in addition to slow cloud layer flow. Currently the entire forecast area is highlighted in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/4) in the Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC. The boundary will move south on Saturday evening which will allow for PoPs to gradually decrease on Saturday night. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 70s today and Saturday with low temperatures settling in the mid 60s each night.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
By Saturday evening, the nearly stationary front will be draped from west to east across central or southern Ohio. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible closer to this frontal boundary with the higher POPs towards central Ohio. A weak area of low pressure will move along the stalled frontal boundary on Sunday across southern Ohio. There will be an uptick in showers and isolated convection during the say Sunday with the highest POPs favoring the central Ohio area and less rain chances closer to the lake. High temperatures will range from the middle to upper 70s on Sunday. The stationary frontal boundary continues to remain across the region on Monday with additional chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures on Monday will be a little warmer in the upper 70s to middle 80s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The frontal boundary will lift northward as a warm front by Tuesday.
Temperatures will warm into the lower to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered POPs will remain in the forecast as well Tuesday through Wednesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening.
A shortwave trough will track from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region on Thursday, dragging a cold front through the Ohio Valley. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the frontal passage on Thursday. Temperatures will be warm ahead of the front lower to middle 80s Thursday. Slightly cooler weather may follow behind the front by Friday.

AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/
VFR conditions across all TAF sites will continue through the bulk of the TAF period. Primary weather driver will be a wavering surface front that remains draped across the Ohio Valley region through the weekend. Some showers with isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening across inland TAF sites. Kept VCSH in the TAFs with this forecast update given limited instability and uncertainty with exact coverage of any isolated thunderstorms. As increased moisture enters the region later this evening and tonight, rain showers will increase in coverage and will likely bring MVFR ceilings and visibilites to TAF sites after 03Z.

Winds will favor an easterly component with speeds between 5 and 10 knots. Winds may become light and variable, mainly across inland TAF sites, through tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday night. Shower and thunderstorm coverage increases on Saturday with periods of showers and thunderstorms persisting through Monday evening.

MARINE
A frontal boundary will become nearly stationary as it tries to push southward from the lakeshore today. Increased gradient will increase winds to 10-15 knots, possible up to 20 knots at times from the northeast. Highest waves should remain in the open waters, but 2 to up to 4 feet are possible across the western and parts of the central basin today. Will continue to monitor wind trends in the upcoming model guidance updates for a possible Small Craft Advisory given the marginal conditions. Northeast winds will persist this weekend 5 to 15 knots. By Monday, the northeast winds will weaken to 5-10 knots as the frontal boundary shifts closer to southern Ohio.
Winds will possibly gain a south-southwest component at 5-10 knots Tuesday of next week as models suggest a warm front pushing north across the lake. Southerly winds may continue for the middle of next week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.