Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cortland, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
645 PM Update...

Temperatures from the Southern Tier and areas southward remain in the 60s. These warmer spots were warmer than forecasted, so a blend of short range guidance was used to bump up temperatures.
More north, temperatures are in the 50s and needed no adjustments. Winds were also touched up, but otherwise, the forecast is doing well and remains on track.

Previous Discussion
High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight leading to decreasing winds and clear skies. Should be a good setup for radiational cooling this evening with lows ending up around 40. High pressure then remains in place through Wednesday night. Temperatures should recover well into the 60's with another sharp drop off in temperatures down to the 40's Wednesday night. Fire spread criteria does not look to be met again Wednesday. With an inverted V sounding a few wind gusts Wednesday afternoon as possible but the pressure gradient looks more relaxed compared to this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
245 PM Update...

Surface high pressure moves off to the east on Thursday with upper level ridging and return flow developing. 850 mb temperatures are rising above 10C and with mostly sunny skies, temperatures will rise to some of the warmest of the year so far. Mixing 850 mb temperatures down to the surface, afternoon highs may be around 80 for valleys and low elevations and mid to upper 70s elsewhere. There is some CAPE that develops in the lake plain of Ontario and with some surface convergence along a potential lake breeze, there could be a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Ridging continues to build into Thursday night with deeper moisture advecting in as a shortwave digs into the Great Lakes region. Rain showers look to hold off until Friday when the shortwave trough begins to move into our area with some broad isentropic lift. The timing of the trough axis is still uncertain but models have trended towards most likely an overnight Friday passage. Forecast soundings have some (between 100-300 J/kg) of elevated CAPE and with low confidence in that being enough for thunder, any chances of thunder were limited to 15% to keep some slight chance wording mainly in NEPA. Heavy rain is not too much of a concern with precipitable water values largely between 1 to 1.5 inches. Far southern NEPA could get over 1.5 inches so a marginal risk from WPC was introduced.
Given forecast soundings show fast flow and the trough axis not quite parallel to the mean flow, it will be hard to get any stronger storms or cells to reside or train over the same area for very long so odds are low for flash flood potential.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
245 PM Update...

High pressure and cool dry air advecting in for the weekend will mean most of the region will be dry into early next week with the exception of early Saturday morning. There is some uncertainty early next week as Ensembles have fairly good agreement on an upper level ridge over the northeast trough mid week while the GFS is fast with moving high pressure off to the east. Given that the ECMWF is in line with the ensembles and the GFS is an outlier to its own ensemble members, temperatures were kept warmer early next week and chances of precipitation were limited below 40%.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR through the TAF period. Gusty west to northwest subsiding between 21-00Z at all TAF sites.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Thursday night...Mainly VFR.

Friday through Saturday... Showers with possible restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.