Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Darien, WI

SHORT TERM
Issued 230 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Today through Saturday night:

Breezy northeast winds near Lake Michigan has built waves to around 4 ft this morning, leading to high swim risk across Sheboygan, Ozaukee, Milwaukee, and Racine Counties. Life threatening waves and currents are expected. Stay out of the water and away from dangerous areas like piers and breakwalls.
Waves diminish by the daylight hours this morning. Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 6am this morning.

Quiet weather conditions expected this morning as dry air remains overhead with the front south of the region. Much of the CWA is expected to remain dry throughout the day but the latest CAMs have started hinting at an increased shower/storm chance this afternoon into the early evening. This looks to be a result of 2 different factors; the first being that low to mid level moisture will increase and just nudge into the south central and southwest portions of southern WI, the second is that there looks to be enough low level convergence to force this potential convection. Forecast sounding show plenty of omega within the 1000-800mb layer. While shear will be weak there should be at least some instability to bring a few rumbles of thunder with isolated to scattered unorganized activity developing in south central and southwestern WI.

This potential will decrease into the evening as the mid level moisture slides back out to the south and east. We then expect higher pressure to build for firmly into southern WI with the low pressure system to the south weakening and sliding east with the associated weak trough aloft. This will bring up back into ridging aloft, though fairly weak as it could easily shift to a more zonal pattern. There still remains fair bit of uncertainty with this forecast but models have largely trended drier and outside of what we could see this afternoon and evening the CWA looks to remain dry through Saturday night.

Kuroski

LONG TERM
Issued 230 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Sunday through Thursday:

For Sunday, S WI will be on the srn periphery of wnwly flow aloft due to a low amplitude ridge over the nrn Great Plains and MN.
Surface ridging over the Great Lakes will initially keep much of the instability west of the MS River , where a sfc trough and moist and unstable conditions will be present. It is possible a decaying area of storms attempts to move into wrn and south central WI on Sunday. For Sunday night through Monday night a shortwave trough will ripple through the ridge and drop into srn WI and Lake MI. The sfc trough to the west will shift ewd bringing moist and unstable conditions into srn WI and a round or two of convection is probable, but timing and intensity is challenging at this point.

A shortwave trough will then cross the central Rockies into the Great Plains on Tue with cyclogenesis to some degree expected from the central Great Plains into wrn or nrn WI for Wed. A warm front with very warm and humid conditions will develop into srn WI ahead of these features with an eventual round or two of deep convection and possible strong storms. A weak sfc ridge would then be expected for Thu. 80 degree temps are expected away from the lake each day during this period.

Gehring

AVIATION
Issued 230 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

VFR conditions right now but we expect over the next several hours to see MVFR CIGS develop over central WI though at this time looks largely to remain north and west of the TAF sites.
While we cannot rule out a brief period of MVFR CIGS for MSN and SBM CIGS are expected to lift as we warm during the day to VFR with SCT to BKN CIGS around 5 kft. This will continue throughout the rest of the day but as low level moisture pushes in from the south into the evening expect a more prolonged period of MVFR CIGS for at least parts of southern WI. There remains uncertainty with regards to how widespread MVFR CIGS will be and for how long but it will likely last for parts of the area at least into the daylight hours Saturday. Otherwise limited chances for showers and storms likely restricted to the afternoon and early evening today with MSN and JVL having the best chances. Light to modest east to northeast winds through the TAF period.

Kuroski

MARINE
Issued 245 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

High pressure centered over Ontario will keep winds primarily northeasterly through the weekend, while low pressure over the Central Plains keeps a stationary front across far southern Lake Michigan. Winds remain light and variable south of the front.
Northeast winds breezy this morning with a Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6am for primarily high waves to 4 feet.

Weak low pressure will then develop in the Ohio Valley on later today, moving eastward and weakening into Sunday. A line of thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon and progress eastward into Sunday night and Monday morning. Chances for thunderstorms then continue into midweek as the Ontario high pressure weakens.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI
Beach Hazards Statement
WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071 until 6 AM Friday.

LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645 until 6 AM Friday.