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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 705 Am Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
Today..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots backing south late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight, then veering southwest early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Friday..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet late in the afternoon.
Friday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight, then rising to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of rain through around midnight, then rain likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
wave heights are for ice free areas.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 070924 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 324 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- No impactful weather expected through Friday.
- Periods of rain expected Friday night into Saturday morning.
- Brief changeover to light snow Saturday, no impacts expected at this time.

SHORT TERM
(Issued 324 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

Today through Friday:

Quiet weather is expected as a transient upper level ridge moves overhead. Mid/high level clouds will persist across portions of the area today, with a risk of stratus building over the area tonight as south/southwest winds steadily increase low level warm advection.

After a seasonably chilly start to the day, well above average temperatures are expect today through Friday. Highs will be well into the 40s, with a few low 50s today, with widespread upper 40s to mid 50s for Friday.

Gagan

LONG TERM
(Issued 324 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

Friday night through Wednesday:

The 00z suite of ensembles continue exhibit reasonable agreement Friday night and Saturday. The trend and theme of not phasing northern/southern stream energy is by far the more dominate outcome, though there are still some minor differences in the development, location and potential deepening of low pressure. Surface low development with the GEFS is either directly over southern WI or just to the northwest, while with the GEPS and ECMWF ensembles the low track is over southern WI or to the southeast. The upper level pattern evolution and surface low track favor a mainly wet and not white system, though some changeover to light snow is possible as the low exits and cold advection begins. Overall, the biggest impact from the current ensemble variance is on the location of the more substantial swath of rainfall. One quarter to one half inch of rainfall is expected this this system.

There are some indications that another weak area disturbance aloft may move across the area Saturday night, bringing a chance at additional light snow. Moisture looks meager resulting in a dusting of light snow and minimal if any impact.

High pressure builds into the region for the latter half of the weekend into early next week. This results in quiet conditions and temperatures near average for mid December.

Gagan

AVIATION
(Issued 324 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

Wind gusts and low level wind shear have gradually diminished over the area during the past few hours. Mid and high level clouds continue to stream over the region and will continue to do so today into tonight. Will monitor for the development of stratus tonight as southwest winds bring an increase in low level moisture. Confidence is not high enough to include a predominate BKN/OVC deck just yet and there are still questions as to whether this deck will be MVFR or low end VFR. Will hone the forecast with upcoming TAF issuances.

Gagan

MARINE
(Issued 324 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

Southwest winds are gradually declining over Lake Michigan early this morning, and that trend will continue today and tonight.
are after midnight. Low pressure of 29.3 inches will move from the northern Plains into south central Canada tonight into Friday.
This will increase southwest winds, with occasional gusts between 25 and 30 kt. Another area of low pressure will develop over northern Illinois Friday night and move northeast southern Wisconsin on Saturday. Southwest winds will shift to the west Saturday night and to the northwest on Sunday as the low exits to the northeast. Will need to keep an eye on gales for the southern half of Lake Michigan on Saturday.

Gagan

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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