Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, WI

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:52PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 12:05 PM CDT (17:05 UTC) Moonrise 10:31PMMoonset 10:50AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Am Cdt Tue Aug 20 2019
Rest of today..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering south late in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the afternoon, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots veering west early in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 5 to 15 knots veering north 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing north after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201908202200;;936885 FZUS53 KMKX 201605 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-202200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, WI
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location: 42.6, -88.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 201442
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
942 am cdt Tue aug 20 2019

Update
The higher humidity air nudging into the area this morning had
resulted in widespread low clouds and fog with some patchy dense
fog. Obs and webcams suggest some of the fog is lingering but
should begin to clear as we go through the morning. The MCS that
had developed over mn ia overnight is now pushing S SE into
central and northern il. A MCV tied to this MCS will end up
passing just south of the area as it moves out of iowa and into
northern il. There is a decent instability gradient situated along
the wi il border and as the MCV moves into this higher instability
air, we expect a few stronger storms to develop just south of the
area. The cloud cover should keep temperatures in check for much
of the morning and thus limit our overall storm potential.

Looking off to the NW a shortwave moving across northern mn wi has
generated another line of convection and this is heading S se.

We'll need to watch this band of storms has it might have a better
shot of bringing us a rain. The only issue is that it might start
to take a more southerly track and follow the higher
theta-e instability axis down into ia. That would lead to only the
western area getting clipped by the storms.

Needless to say we will be watching trends this morning closely
and trying to determine what impact the mcv MCS will have on storm
potential this afternoon.

Marine
Patchy marine dense fog has developed this morning along the
sheboygan nearshore waters and a marine dense fog advisory is in
effect until 11 am. Winds stay out of the south for much of the
day but begin to shift to the west as a front nears the area.

Expect showers and storms along the southern portions of the lake
through the evening hours.

Prev discussion (issued 622 am cdt Tue aug 20 2019)
update...

showers and maybe few thunderstorms will likely clip southwest
wisconsin this morning. The cells on the northern end of the
complex over iowa are weakening as they move into lower cape
environment. Still expect the core of the activity to move
southeast where the environment is more favorable for storms.

Details in previous discussion.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

high clouds are rapidly moving in ahead of storms in iowa which
should erode the fog. Light south to southwest winds will be less
than 10 knots today. Thunderstorms may impact far southwest and
southern wisconsin late this morning. MVFR ceilings are likely,
especially for far southwest wisconsin.

Then there is a very small chance for thunderstorms
this afternoon. A cold front will move through early Wednesday
morning bringing north winds and MVFR or ifr ceilings. These lower
ceilings will likely continue through the morning or early
afternoon then improve.

Prev discussion... (issued 252 am cdt Tue aug 20 2019)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence medium.

Storms currently over northern iowa could clip southwest wisconsin
later this morning. Can't rule out something strong to severe, but
the more favored area for this is southwest of wisconsin. These
storms are expected to form into a line with the core of the
activity diving south as it approaches southern wisconsin.

Storms over north-central iowa developed on the nose of a developing
low level jet where there is 1500 j of mu cape. A shortwave is
moving through this region and it is expected to track just
southwest of wisconsin. An instability gradient lies from northern
iowa to northern illinois, along with 925-850mb baroclinic zone, and
the mean wind is west southwest. This favors the core of the severe
activity to track to our southwest. Despite a cap this morning, cape
will be around 1500 j with 20 knots of shear so could see
thunderstorms on the strong side.

The rap shows us becoming uncapped this afternoon so will have to
watch for any thunderstorms popping up. We will likely have
subsidence behind the shortwave and MCS so this is just a small
chance.

Another shortwave will be moving north to south across wisconsin
later Tuesday, reaching us late evening. This brings a small
chance for thunderstorms. The instability and shear will still be
in place.

Wednesday... Forecast confidence high.

A cold front will move through early Wednesday morning bringing
north winds. It will be cloudy and dry.

Long term...

Thursday through Saturday... Forecast confidence high...

high pressure will be building into the area Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, and will remain anchored across the great lakes
through the rest of the week. This will set the stage for a few
cool days and nights, with highs in the low to mid 70s Thursday to
Saturday, and overnight lows in the low to mid 50s. It wouldn't
be at all surprising to see a few of the usual cool spots across
central wisconsin dip into the upper 40s Friday morning.

Sunday and Monday... Forecast confidence moderate.

Temps Sunday will likely warm back to around 80, with increasing
moisture as winds come around to the south. Another frontal
boundary should begin to approach from the west late Sunday into
Monday, which will be the next chance for showers thunderstorms.

Aviation(9z tafs)... Fog will impact the low lying areas early
this morning. Light south to southwest winds will be less than 10
knots. Thunderstorms may impact far southwest and southern
wisconsin late this morning. MVFR ceilings are likely, especially
for far southwest wisconsin.

Then there is a very small chance for thunderstorms
this afternoon. A cold front will move through early Wednesday
morning bringing north winds and MVFR or ifr ceilings.

Marine...

south to southwest winds on Tuesday will be 10 to
20 knots. Waves will be 3 feet or less across the open waters.

Lighter winds are expected Tuesday night. A cold front will move
down the lake around sunrise Wednesday morning, reaching the
southern part late morning. North winds will gust around 20 knots on
Wednesday. Lighter winds are expected Wednesday night.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Dense fog advisory until 11 am cdt this morning for lmz643.

Update... Stumpf
today tonight and aviation marine... Marquardt
Wednesday through Monday... Boxell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 50 mi65 min N 2.9 G 2.9 73°F 1015.9 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Janesville-Rock County, WI15 mi80 minVar 43.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist70°F69°F100%1015.9 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi70 minN 02.00 miFog/Mist68°F67°F100%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJVL

Wind History from JVL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6CalmCalm4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4E7
1 day agoW12
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NW10NW10W7W644CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE4NE5E65
2 days agoCalmSE7SE7S6SE7SE10SW85SE7SE4SE4S5S3E3SW3S5CalmS11
G15
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W5NW8SW74W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.