Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:04PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 7:39 PM CDT (00:39 UTC) Moonrise 12:15AMMoonset 3:21PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 708 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..West wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots after midnight. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet early in the morning.
Wednesday..West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming 5 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny in the morning then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday night..North wind 5 to 15 knots backing northwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Slight chance of showers through the night. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ646 Expires:201910230400;;122977 FZUS53 KMKX 230009 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 708 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-230400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, WI
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location: 42.6, -88.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 222259
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
559 pm cdt Tue oct 22 2019

Update
Light showers and drizzle continue across the area early this
evening and have made some tweaks to pops to reflect these
conditions. However, as the upper low slowly pushes east tonight
expect clearing from SW to NE and an end to any lingering drizzle.

The pressure gradient finally begins to weaken overnight and a
decrease in winds is expected.

Aviation(00z tafs)
Light rain drizzle rotating around the base of a system to our
north will keep CIGS a mix of MVFRVFR through the evening. As
these shift E NE expect an improvement to allVFR CIGS late
tonight. Winds will also taper off overnight with gusts dropping
off and speeds holding steady around 10-12kts. A quick moving
system will move across southern wi towards the end of the current
taf period and could bring a return of MVFR CIGS and -shra but
there remains some uncertainty on this system so will keep cigs
vfr for now.

Prev discussion (issued 318 pm cdt Tue oct 22 2019)
short term...

tonight and Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The very large closed, mid level circulation north of lake
superior will continue to lift north and weaken this evening.

On Wednesday, a fast moving short wave will dive into the
southwest periphery of the upper trough and push across southern
wisconsin and northern illinois.

For tonight, any lingering showers sprinkles will lift north of
the area early this evening with clearing spreading south to north
late this evening and into the early morning hours on Wednesday.

Will let the wind advisory go at 3 pm since we're not meeting
criteria any longer. It's still windy, but not meeting advisory
levels.

We should have a period of clear skies sunshine Wednesday morning.

But, the fast moving short wave mentioned above will spread
clouds back into the area by mid day. An associated weak low level
circulation should generate enough isentropic lift saturation to
squeeze out some rain Wednesday afternoon across southern
wisconsin. This rain will lay out in an east west band. It will be
fairly narrow, so a few local areas could see some focused
rainfall, other areas will be dry. It's hard to determine at this
point just where that band will set up. The NAM and ECMWF look
quite dry with the low levels looking dry. The GFS and gem-nh
look too wet. The blend is our friend then. Will keep pops in the
chance category for now and allow subsequent shifts to up chances
if necessary.

Long term...

Wednesday night through Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Any light precip lingering with the brief round of isentropic lift
will exit to our east in the evening. Skies should thin out or
scatter overnight and winds will become light. This will allow
temperatures to drop into the mid 30s. Frost is possible. We no
longer issue headlines for frost potential since we are past the
median date of the first frost.

Temperatures will be below average on Thursday and Friday with a
cold upper trough over the region. Winds will be light. Clouds
may linger over southeast wisconsin for much of the period due to
a front stationed over il and in, but no precip is expected for
southern wi. Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing for
most areas inland from the lake Thursday night. Friday night
should be slightly warmer with min temps around freezing.

Saturday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Models start to diverge with the upper level patterns for the
weekend. The GFS keeps the whole upper trough progressive into the
eastern u.S. While the ecwmf and canadian models leave a cutoff
low over the texas panhandle. If the cutoff low scenario happens,
it would lift into il and potentially brush southern wi with
precip Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Temperatures this weekend will return to around normal for this
time of year, with highs in the lower to mid 50s.

Monday and beyond... Forecast confidence is low.

The next amplified upper trough will slide into the western part
of the country early next week. This will be one to watch as there
are many differences between the models regarding the speed that
the trough moves across the country.

The only thing that all the models agree on is that much colder
air will drop into the upper midwest and great lakes region by the
middle of next week. 850mb temperatures might get down to around
-12c (and -7 to -9c at 925mb) for a time. That translates to highs
in the 30s and lows in the 20s. Temperatures are expected to
rebound later in the week.

Aviation(21z tafs)...

MVFR CIGS will continue across the area through early evening.

Clearing is then expected to overspread southern wisconsin from
south to north later this evening, into the overnight hours. Most
taf sites should beVFR by 03-04z Wed with clearing reaching the
taf sites by 07-09z wed.VFR conditions should then hold through
the rest of the TAF period. Look for the winds to peak early in
the TAF period this afternoon, then diminishing late this
afternoon and continuing to diminish tonight. Winds will veer to
the west by evening.

Marine...

a very strong low pressure system just north of lake superior
late this afternoon will continue to move northeast across
ontario tonight. Southwest to west gales will will continue into
the early morning hours on Wednesday, but steadily decrease
through this evening. Once the gale warning expires for the
nearshore waters, a small craft advisory will be issued, running
through about mid morning on Wednesday.

Winds will be a bit lighter Wednesday, but will remain gusty out
of the west. Lighter winds are then expected for Thursday into
Friday as high pressure moves through the region.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Gale warning until 1 am cdt Wednesday for lmz080-261-362-364-366-
563-565-567-643>646-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-
876-878.

Update... Stumpf
tonight Wednesday and aviation marine... Davis
Wednesday night through Tuesday... Cronce


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 50 mi40 min WSW 13 G 22 49°F 1005.8 hPa (+2.4)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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NE7
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G6
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G7
NE6

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Janesville-Rock County, WI15 mi55 minWSW 15 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F37°F66%1005.1 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi45 minSW 13 G 2110.00 miOvercast45°F36°F72%1004.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJVL

Wind History from JVL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW18
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1 day agoSE6SE6E3E6E4E9E9E8E9E9E13
G16
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G19
SE12
G21
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E11
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G33
2 days agoNW4NW8NW4CalmW5W4NW6NW4NW8NW4NW4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE5SE6SE6SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.