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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 943 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 am est Sunday through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Patchy fog. Showers likely with patchy drizzle late this evening, then a chance of showers with patchy drizzle after midnight. A chance of showers late. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Rain in the evening, then a chance of rain overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of rain showers during the day, then a chance of snow and rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 44 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 030317 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1017 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Spotty showers and some drizzle continues over north central NY this evening. A round of steadier rain is expected Sunday as a low pressure system moves through. Temperatures will be above average into early next week. The pattern remains unsettled next week, with a cooling trend and perhaps some snow showers by mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Increased the coverage of drizzle and fog a bit for tonight with the evening updates based on recent observations. Issued an SPS based on several observations of locally dense fog. Main concern looks to be late tomorrow afternoon into the evening where model soundings show some elevated instability west of I-81 possibly resulting in a few thunderstorms. Given the limited amount of instability now modeled it does not look like gusty winds would transfer to the surface at this time.

345 PM Update...

Spotty showers and pockets of drizzle continue to work their way across CNY, but they will be diminishing this evening and becoming more concentrated near and north of the NYS Thruway and around the Finger Lakes along a stalled frontal boundary.
Meanwhile low pressure developing over the Southeast will be moving north along the spine of the Appalachians overnight and rain will be pushing in from the south before daybreak tomorrow.
Rain is expected to reach NE PA between 4-6 AM and reach the Southern Tier prior to daybreak. Rain will continue to spread northward across the rest of CNY through the morning.
Temperatures will be relatively mild tonight with lows in the lower 40s. Northern Oneida County will slip back into the upper 30s.

As this low moves to the east and off the mid-Atlantic coast during the mid-to-late afternoon, a second area of low pressure will cross the eastern Great Lakes enhancing showers over CNY into the evening. Some of the CAMS do hint at the potential of a gusty line of showers moving west to east over the area during the evening hours, so this will be something to watch. Despite the clouds and rain, the flow will be generally out of the south keeping it mild with highs tomorrow in the upper 40s and low 50s. Rainfall totals for late tonight through tomorrow night are still on track to range between 0.50-1.00 inch.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
330 PM Update:

Surface low pressure over Lake Ontario will lift into the middle Saint Lawrence Valley by Monday morning. Steadier rain will lift out of the area Sunday night, with W to WNW flow bringing lake effect rain showers, mixing with snow at times in higher elevation areas heading into Monday morning. 850 mb temps will be in the -5 to -7C range, promoting light precipitation, continuing into Tuesday as precip changes to mostly light snow.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
330 PM Update:

Expect some fluctuation in light lake effect snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday, with light precip still favored. A clipper system may drop into the area Thursday, spreading rain and snow showers over most of the area through the early evening hours, before diminishing again. SW flow will bring warmer temperatures to the area Friday and Saturday, with precip chances lingering over north-central NY.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
645 PM Update A weak surface front has been slowly dropping south with drizzle and light rain showers as well as widespread fog north of the front. ITH and SYR are seeing LIFR conditions and it does not look like the conditions will change much through at least before 6Z. Vis may improve between the drizzle/rain showers but cigs will likely stay low. The drizzle and showers are headed into RME in the next hour but persistent fog was less certain.
BGM and ELM look to get some of the low cigs as well though confidence was lower that any vis restrictions would develop at ELM. AVP will hold onto VFR for a while longer until rain moves in late tonight around 8Z. SE winds will help keep cigs a little higher for the overnight but as the winds become more SW aloft tomorrow morning, cigs will likely fall to near IFR.

With rain and plentiful low level moisture, most terminals will see IFR vis and cigs through much of the day into 0Z. Some brief improvement is possible in the afternoon as some instability develops and could help mix in some drier air to the surface mainly for ITH and ELM. The better conditions will not last long so IFR conditions were kept in the TAFs as prevailing.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Restrictions likely, especially for the CNY terminals, due to lingering rain showers and areas of fog.

Monday through Tuesday...Possible restrictions due to rain and snow showers.

Wednesday...Mostly VFR.

Thursday... Restrictions possible due to snow showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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