Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Naples, NY

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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 052019 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 319 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

SYNOPSIS. Blustery and cold with scattered lake effect snow showers around through the weekend. Minor accumulations expected mainly north of Binghamton, across most of Central NY. Then, a gradual warming trend begins on Monday, followed by much warmer weather by midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. 1230 PM Update

The forecast remains on track this morning with blustery northwest flow and sunny skies. Another shortwave, visible on water vapor imagery, is pivoting around the upper level low into eastern Ontario. This should set off some lake enhanced snow showers into the early evening. The only real changes with this latest update have been to back off slightly on snow amounts before 0Z, with morning soundings showing a very dry pocket of air aloft and a fairly dramatic dewpoint depression at the surface. As the shortwave moves in, model soundings are taking a little longer to moisten sufficiently to produce any real accumulations.

300 AM Update

Cold and breezy with occasional lake enhanced snow showers expected for much of the near term period as a polar, upper level low spins just to our north. Will be dealing with gusty winds today, cold wind chills early this morning and again tonight . and finally lake effect snow showers right into the weekend.

Conditions start off partly sunny and very cold this morning, with just some scattered clouds coming off the lake into Central NY. There may also be a few flurries, but not much activity is expected through at least mid-afternoon. The main story today will be the cold temperatures and gusty winds. After starting off between 8-15 degrees this morning, temperatures are only forecast to rise into the 20s for much of the area this afternoon . A few valley locations in NE PA and the southern tier may hit the lower 30s. This is due to very cold air rotating in from the north, associated with a slow moving upper level low. 850mb temperatures hover around -15C all day, with 1000-500mb thicknesses between 516-519dm. As for the winds, there is good agreement in the latest guidance for NW winds of 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph . peaking in the early to mid- afternoon hours. These values are just below wind advisory criteria, but will be mentioning in the HWO. These wind speeds may still cause some minor issues, such as blowing around light weight outdoor objects or snapping small tree branches. Will need to monitor this closely to make sure winds do not reach advisory criteria. As expected, the cold temperatures will also combine with the gusty winds to produce wind chills of 0 to 10 below early this morning and still in the single digits to teens this afternoon.

An arctic frontal boundary then sweeps south through Central NY this evening; slowing and washing out across the northern tier of PA late tonight. Snow showers and perhaps even a few snow squalls will break out between 5-8 PM for the NY Thruway corridor from Syracuse to Utica. These snow showers will gradually expand south, reaching Ithaca--Cortland and Oneonta around 7-10 PM and eventually the Southern tier by 9-11 PM. Lighter snow showers and flurries will be possible even in parts of NE PA after midnight. For Central NY, a fairly good setup for multiband lake effect snow showers will then develop for the overnight hours. Expect a 310-330 degree flow pattern much of the time, and rather deep synoptic moisture getting involved as well (up to and above 700mb at times). Good lift within the snow growth layer should all for dendritic snow flake development, creating snow to liquid ratios of at least 15-20:1. Overall, am expecting 1 to 3 inches of snow across the NY Thruway Corridor down into the northern susquehanna region . with a coating to 1 inch for the Twin Tiers by daybreak. Another cold and breezy night with lows back down into the 10s for most. Northwest winds 8- 15 mph with a few higher gusts may create localized blowing snow in parts of Central NY as well.

Expect much of the same for Saturday, as our region remains under a very cold NW flow pattern. More lake effect snow showers with minor accumulations (locally 1-2" possible). Winds won't be quite as strong as today . expecting 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. High temperatures a few degrees colder . only in the 20s (around 30 Wyoming Valley region). Decided to hold off on any winter weather advisories for the lake effect favored counties at this time . although 24-36 hour snow amounts could locally be 3-6 inches(Cortland, S Cayuga, S Onondaga, Tompkins). Confidence was not high enough in 4 inch or higher amounts in a 12 hour period. Will again monitor this potential closely as newer model guidance arrives today.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. 3 PM Update .

By Sunday morning, drier air starts to push into the region, but 850mb ridge is still well west of the region. Lake effect snow showers will continue into at least the early afternoon, forecast soundings then show the column becoming too dry with a lack of ice by about 18Z. However, models usually tend to cut off the moisture a little quickly, and with the NW flow persisting Sunday afternoon, think there will at least a slight chance for a snow shower or flurries.

Heights really start to to rise by late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as ridging pushes in from the west. Sunday will likely be the last day in awhile where highs fail to hit the freezing mark, with temperatures only topping out in the mid 20s to lower 30s further south in the Scranton/Wilkes Barre area. The ridge axis and much warmer air will move in for the start of next week. Temperatures warm into the mid 30s north . and lower to mid 40s south and west on Monday and the forecast may trend warmer yet, depending on exactly how much sunshine we see across the region.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. 305 PM Update .

Not too many changes to the long term portion of the forecast, however, have increased high temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday. 60s are starting to look possible for portions of the region on Wednesday with upper ridging overhead and this taste of Spring should last at least through Thursday. However, forecast models are showing colder conditions returning on Friday with the passing of a cold front.

300 am update . The pleasant conditions continue through at least Wednesday with a low chance of some rain and/or snow from the Thruway north Monday night and early Tuesday as a weak front sweeps eastward into nrn New England. Otherwise, high pressure re- establishes itself Tuesday and Wednesday with quiet weather and some of the warmest temperatures since November last year. Highs will likely be climbing into the low to mid 50s on Tuesday and well into the 50s close to 60 on Wednesday.

The ridge begins to flatten out by Thursday and the next low pressure system will ride east across the southern Great Lakes with an area of rain showers spreading in from the west. Temperatures Thursday will likely still remain in the 50s, but with cloud cover and rain possible. This active and warm pattern is expected to continue into Friday before cooler temperatures arrive this weekend.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. VFR conditions prevail for the rest of the afternoon with mainly clear skies and only a few cumulus at around 3500 ft streaming off of Lake Ontario towards KSYR and KRME. Expect otherwise blustery winds through the remainder of the afternoon and evening as northwesterly winds gust up to 20 to 30 kts.

Into the evening, ceilings begin to drop back as another disturbance begins to move in. This will kick off our next chance for lake enhanced snow showers, mainly after 0Z, while ceilings fall back to around 2500 to 3500 ft across central NY. Areas of BLSN will also be possible at KRME, KSYR, KITH and KBGM courtesy of gusty winds through the night. Periods of IFR visibility are expected at KSYR, KITH and KBGM overnight. KELM may see a few flurries as well, but the orientation of the winds would likely keep much of the activity to the northeast. Meanwhile, KAVP should stay VFR for the rest of the period.

After 12Z, the potential for IFR visibility winds down as snow showers become more scattered and lighter. However, MVFR ceilings hang on for the remainder of the forecast period across central NY.

Outlook .

Saturday night through Sunday . Scattered lake effect snow showers may bring occasional restrictions mainly to the central NY terminals.

Sunday night and Monday . Mainly VFR expected.

Monday night . Scattered snow and rain showers may bring occasional restrictions to SYR and RME.

Tuesday and Wednesday . Mainly VFR expected.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . HLC NEAR TERM . HLC SHORT TERM . MPK LONG TERM . BJT/MPK AVIATION . HLC

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	46 mi	27 min	WNW 27 G 34	30°F			1013.9 hPa (-3.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	46 mi	57 min		31°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	75 mi	57 min	W 30 G 40	28°F			1012.2 hPa	17°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Dansville, Dansville Municipal Airport, NY	17 mi	33 min	W 11 G 24	10.00 mi	Fair	32°F	9°F	38%	1016.3 hPa
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY	19 mi	34 min	W 15 G 23	10.00 mi	Fair	30°F	5°F	34%	1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDSV

Wind History from DSV (wind in knots)

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