Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Naples, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Isolated to scattered showers linger this morning into the early to mid afternoon hours. Cooler this afternoon, but temperatures remain above average.

2) A dramatic pattern shift will occur over the weekend as a cold front moves through with a round of soaking showers and thunderstorms Saturday night. This will be followed by much colder weather early next week including snow showers for some parts of the area.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Post-frontal showers across the Poconos and southern Catskills are expected to taper off over the next several hours. However some isolated to scattered showers are expected to develop this morning, mainly around the Finger Lakes region, as the lagging upper level shortwave trough moves overhead this morning. This activity is expected to diminish by mid morning, but as the shortwave moves east, the lower heights combined with a slightly cooler, east to northeast flow over the Catskills and parts of the Poconos can set up some spotty instability showers, and perhaps a rumble of thunder through early to mid afternoon. By the early evening, brief ridging develops aloft and high pressure builds in at the surface leading to dry conditions through at least the early afternoon Saturday.

High temperatures today will be running about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Thursday, but remain well above average for mid April. Highs will mainly range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Lows tonight will cool down back into the upper 40s and low 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A deep upper trough will dig into the western Great Lakes Saturday, setting up a strong south-southwest flow boosting temperatures back up well into the 70s across the area. This will occur ahead of a very well-marked front trailing from strong Canadian low pressure. Winds will be increasing in advance of this frontal boundary with gusts Saturday into early Saturday evening averaging 25 to 35 mph. A narrow yet significant ribbon of moisture will pool all the way up from the Western Gulf, causing rain and embedded thunder to sweep across our region late Saturday through Saturday night. While hydro concerns remain low at this time, we will be monitoring areas west of I-81 where some of the higher rainfall totals seem to be eyeing for the potential for flooding to possibly return. The ensemble river forecasts have both the Tioughnioga at Cortland and Cayuga Lake at Ithaca with a 30% chance of exceeding minor and moderate flood levels respectively later Sunday into early next week.

Abruptly colder weather will be ushered in during the second half of the weekend. Temperatures Sunday will initially range from the upper 30s and lower 40s across CNY to the upper 40s to near 50 degrees across the Poconos and southern Catskills, but strong cold air advection with gusty winds will lead to falling temperatures along with scattered showers. Temperatures plummet into the mid 20s to near 30 Sunday night, with any lingering rain showers mixing with and changing to snow showers/flurries.
Highs on Monday will only reach into the upper 30s and lower 40s, and a few lake enhanced snow showers cannot be ruled out anywhere across central NY and northeast PA. Drier air settles in Monday night which will be our coldest, dropping into the 20s areawide. Temperatures recover back into the 50s and 60s going into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Post-frontal Fuel Alt to IFR ceilings will continue for RME, and be introduced to SYR-ITH-BGM-ELM later tonight into the pre-dawn hours, followed by gradual lifting in scattering towards midday today. KAVP is unlikely to reach IFR, but should still at least get MVFR ceilings a little after sunrise.

Outlook:

Friday night through Saturday early afternoon...Mainly VFR.

Saturday late afternoon through evening...Showery cold front with embedded thunder and a gusty wind shift out of the west- northwest.

Late Saturday night through Sunday...Blustery chilly post- frontal conditions with probable restrictions and scattered showers.

Sunday night through Monday morning...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain and snow showers.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday...Mainly VFR, then a small chance of showers and minor restrictions Tuesday night.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.