Sunrise 5:33 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 9:03 AM   Moonset 12:32 AM

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FXUS61 KALY 121930 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 330 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

SYNOPSIS
An upper level low will depart the region tonight with rain showers ending along with partial clearing. Warmer weather returns early this week with continued chances for some showers and possible thunderstorms each day through midweek. Drier and seasonable weather may return for late week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low now positioned across eastern New England as the surface low over central Pennsylvania dissipates. Continued upper-level troughing overhead will result in some isolated to scattered showers through the rest of the afternoon hours. Activity will be most favored across far northern and eastern areas with some isolated activity near the Hudson Valley.

Rising upper-level heights and surface high pressure strengthening to our east will bring an end to showers this evening with some partial clearing overnight, which may provide some viewing conditions for tonight's aurora. Visit the Space Weather Prediction Center website for more information. Some patchy fog may also develop along some of the river valleys where the more persistent clearing occurs. Lows will fall back into the upper 30s to mid-40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Dry weather will start the day on Monday with surface high pressure located just off the East Coast and flat upper-level ridging overhead. Some weak upper-level energy will track over the ridge late Monday morning through Monday night as a surface warm front approaches from the south and west. This will result in an increase in clouds and shower chances for Monday afternoon and Monday evening. Areas along and north of I-90 remain favored for this activity with decreasing chances farther south.
Enough weak instability may be in place for a few rumbles of thunder. Monday will turn out to be a milder day with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

The warm front and best upper forcing will lift northward toward the St. Lawrence River later Monday night as upper-level heights begin to rise. This will also cause the shower activity to lift north of our region by later Monday night with a brief period of dry weather into Tuesday morning. A warm air advection regime will result in a milder night with lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s.

A progressive positively tilted upper-level trough is expected to track from the Missouri Valley to the mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday through Wednesday. Upper-level forcing returns Tuesday afternoon and night as a cold front approaches from the west.
Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected with our region placed in the warm sector of this system. Tuesday may turn out fairly warm prior to the arrival of rainfall with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s except upper 60s to lower 70s across the higher elevations.

The cold front will slow its forward progress across the region on Wednesday as a low pressure system tracks northeastward just ahead of the front from the central Appalachians to the mid- Atlantic coast. This will bring continued rain chances through Wednesday with highs reaching the 60s to near 70.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
The upper-level trough and surface low pressure system should depart the region to the east by later Wednesday night and Thursday as upper- level ridging and surface high pressure return. This will result in a drying trend for the later part of the week. Guidance then begins to diverge on the weather pattern heading into next weekend but it appears a return to unsettled weather is possible. We ran with the NBM pops during this time which bring them back into the chance range. Highs most days during the long term period will be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 18z Monday...Mainly VFR/MVFR conditions in place this afternoon as an upper level low tracks east across the region.
Scattered showers will be around, with the best chances for a few rounds of -SHRA at KGFL/KPSF where TEMPO has been included.
Will mention VCSH at KALB. Any -SHRA should stay north of KPOU.

As the upper low moves into New England this evening, conditions are expected to improve to VFR. BKN-OVC cigs will also likely to scour out to FEW-SCT coverage through the evening hours. With not much drying overnight and fairly moist ground conditions, there is a threat of fog with MVFR/IFR possible. Will include mention of IFR at most favored sites KGFL/KPSF with MVFR for now at KALB/KPOU. Will continue to monitor trends.

Winds will be variable around 6 kt or less through the rest of the day, becoming near calm tonight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Albany
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Sun -- 12:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:02 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:50 AM EDT     5.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:50 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:28 PM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

Castleton-on-Hudson
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Sun -- 12:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:33 AM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:33 AM EDT     5.51 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:21 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:11 PM EDT     4.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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Albany, NY,