Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Douglas, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 232 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

- Chance storms early in the northwest and southeast this aftn

A line of convection extending from far Eastern Upper Peninsula across northern lower and into Wisconsin will continue to trek eastward this morning. The line continues to weaken as the night continues and as it moves eastward. Several factors for the weakening include; lack of daytime heating, which correlates to a more stable atmosphere, and entering a drier airmass. Strong low level winds continue to stream out ahead of the approaching front.
Multiple CAMS, including the HRRR and the HRRR have strong winds, upwards of 50 mph to be possible along the lakeshore north of Muskegon for the next few hours. However winds will weaken and flat line after that. So precipitation remains possible, however storms should be isolated into the counties north of Muskegon.
While strong winds, some of which could be 40 to 50 mph to be possible until 5 AM.

The cold frontal boundary will continue its slow slog to the east throughout the day. Temperatures today will be a shadow of what they were yesterday, however to could be enough to aid the front in sparking afternoon convection. As the line reaches southern lower this afternoon, there could be enough CAPE and shear to allow for showers and storms. The HRRR has enough of a cap and stable atmosphere to dampen much formation, however several other CAMS show a narrow line forming mid afternoon through the southeaster portion of the state.

- Frost Tonight into Wednesday morning

In the wake of the cold front, Dry cold air will propagate over the Great Lake region tonight into WEdnesday morning. A building high pressure over the upper Midwest will create downsloping flow over Michigan dropping dewpoints into the 20s. With dewpoints that low, along with clearing skies, temperatures should drop tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest model soundings support this with a decoupled sfc, stronger winds aloft and calm winds at the surface. Will wait on headline to narrow in on an area but a frost advisory will probably be needed.

- Showers and storms to end the week.

The high pressure will be short lived as a change in the upper level pattern will stream Gulf moisture through the region through the latter half of the week. There is some timing issues. Some precipitation could arrive as early as Wednesday night, however, flow is divergent at that point and considering the dry air that will reside over Lower Michigan, it should slow any precipitation arrival. There remains a persistent signal of widespread showers Thursday into early Friday.

Mid range models are starting to come into focus on trough passage which lends more confidence on the up coming weekend, which is looking drier but cooler.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 205 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

A cold front is poised well upstream at 06Z stretching from Eastern MN southward into Central IA. Ahead of the cold front a line of diminishing showers and thunderstorms is situated across Wisconsin. Behind the showers and storms there are some MVFR ceilings that are in place.

The line of showers and storms is expected to continue to diminish as it progresses into Southwest Lower Michigan early this morning.
The I-96 TAF sites may see some scattered showers between 09Z and 14Z, but the thunder threat should be diminished. A period of MVFR ceilings is possible in the morning into early afternoon between 14Z and 18Z.

A regeneration of showers and storms is possible towards BTL and JXN in the 16Z to 19Z time frame before the front moves south and east.

Winds will be notable the remainder of the night with gusts towards Lake Michigan above 35 knots at times. Inland wind gusts will be in the 20-30 knot range. Winds will shift to the west and northwest behind the front today with continued gusty winds. Gusts today will likely reach the 35 knot level near the frontal passage for 2-3 hours. LLWS is expected the remainder of the night with southwest winds at 2,000 feet in the 50-60 knot range.

MARINE
Issued at 340 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Cold frontal boundary, along with strong low level winds will keep conditions hazardous to small craft this morning. Showers and storms early this morning will mainly be north of Whitehall, however strong winds will continue at all zones through the afternoon before subsiding this evening.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.