Douglas, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Douglas, MI

June 13, 2024 6:33 AM EDT (10:33 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 9:25 PM
Moonrise 12:08 PM   Moonset 12:49 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 405 Am Edt Thu Jun 13 2024

Early this morning - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Today - Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms until midday, then rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering northwest toward daybreak. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

Friday - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Friday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots veering northeast after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Saturday - East winds around 10 knots backing north late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.

Sunday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

Monday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LMZ800
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Douglas, MI
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 130749 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 349 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong storms remain possible for this afternoon and early evening

- Becoming hot and humid

DISCUSSION
Issued at 349 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

- Strong storms remain possible for this afternoon and early evening

Our main focus and challenge initially will be on convective trends, and what kind of severe potential will be present later today.

One factor with potential severe weather later today is the ongoing convection this morning. We have a narrow broken line of showers and a rumble of thunder embedded coming through the area right now.
Then, there is the leftover convection across Northern WI. The convection over the area right now is associated with a weak short wave and the southern edge of the low level jet nosing into the area. The WI storms are better associated with the low level jet dynamics with the core of the jet supporting the convection.

To start with, we have some outflow boundaries very evident on the radar loops that are propagating to the south and east. The low level jet will be weakening a bit as we approach sunrise as is typical. Severe weather is not expected with any storms this morning. What we do anticipate is the remnants of the storms and the outflow boundaries will continue to progress toward the area. These will likely have a decent say in where convection develops.

A majority of the models and their ensemble members have been fairly consistent in showing that most of, if not all of the convection will be south and east of the Grand Rapids area. In addition to where the outflow boundaries end up, other factors will likely be detrimental for widespread and severe convection for the vast majority of the area. These are as mentioned last night, divergent flow downwind of Lake Michigan, a cap in place, and the low level jet moving away.

That seems like the more likely scenario. However, the HRRR and RAP have been consistently showing the outflow boundary and effective cold front igniting convection a bit further NW and more widespread.
This may have to do with instability being a bit higher with higher sfc dew points. If the convection does ignite along the cold front to our NW, it will have 2,000 J/kg of CAPE, and deep layer shear values in the 30s. A unidirectional wind flow in the lowest few thousand feet would support a wind threat, justifying the conditional Slight Risk. We will continue to monitor the multiple parameters mentioned above.

The front will sweep through the area no later than overnight. A much drier and a bit cooler air mass will filter in over the area.
Much more stable conditions should keep the area dry on Friday, with maybe some cumulus clouds mixing out.

- Becoming hot and humid

High pressure will be centered over the state Friday night and will result in our coolest temperatures of the forecast period. We're looking at lows in the lower to mid 50s by early Saturday morning.
after that, the high moves east and south flow develops and warmer and more moist air will advect north across Lower MI. A large expansive upper high is progd to develop over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes next week and that usually means a heat wave this time of year. H8 temps are progd to rise from 10c Saturday morning to 19c by Tuesday. Sixty degree plus surface dewpoints won't arrive until Sunday which is when surface temperatures will close in on 90. Highs Monday will be in the lower to mid 90s and heat indices will climb to 95-100. Similar conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday too; we may be looking at an extended period of Heat Advisory Criteria.

Given the juicy airmass in place, any minor short waves that ripple across the region in the upper flow may be able to generate a shower or storms, but nothing organized is expected. Thus, low chance/isolated PoPs will carry the day.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 136 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed along the lake shore and are slowly moving east. MKG will have the best chance of seeing precipitation within the next couple of hours.
Farther south, an outflow boundary has pushed ahead of the precipitation which usually means we'll see some decay in that precipitation over the next hour or so. As the low level jet impinges on the region, an uptick in moisture and instability will mean that we could see continued convective development.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected.

Models are not in good agreement with convective trends this afternoon. However, given the moisture and instability that'll be in place over the region coupled with the arrival of a weak cold front, we should see showers/storms develop after 20z and be east of the terminals by mid evening.

MARINE
Issued at 349 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

We continue to monitor the situation this morning for a possible Small Craft Advisory/Beach Hazards event. Latest consensus of model guidance indicates that the predominate conditions will fall just short of both wind and wave criteria. There may be a few isolated gusts touching the 22 knot criteria, and waves approaching 4 ft.
This has been the expectation all along, and will not deviate from the plan at this time. The peak of the wind should come mid-morning just ahead of the front coming through, before dropping off the remainder of the day.

We are not looking at any additional periods of concern at this time until at least Saturday night/Sunday, if not later as the gradient starts to pick up.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 9 mi46 minS 16G20 66°F 67°F29.7856°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 17 mi44 minSE 11G12 72°F
45029 18 mi24 minSSW 12G16 64°F 59°F2 ft60°F
45168 18 mi34 minS 9.7G9.7 66°F 61°F1 ft29.8459°F
45161 38 mi24 min 2 ft
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 40 mi34 minSSW 11G16 76°F 29.89
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 41 mi24 minSSE 19G20 63°F 29.7761°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 43 mi34 minSSW 9.7G12 63°F 58°F29.8159°F


Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBIV WEST MICHIGAN RGNL,MI 9 sm1.7 hrsSSW 1010 smClear72°F61°F69%29.84
KLWA SOUTH HAVEN AREA RGNL,MI 20 sm18 minSSW 0410 smClear68°F64°F88%29.85


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Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,




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