Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH

June 17, 2024 9:13 AM EDT (13:13 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 9:07 PM
Moonrise 3:57 PM   Moonset 1:41 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LEZ168 Expires:202406171415;;160026 Fzus61 Kcle 170733 Glfle
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 333 am edt Mon jun 17 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.

Synopsis - A ridge averaging 30.10 inches will continue to dominate the weather over the great lakes this week.

lez165>168-171415- vermilion to avon point oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- avon point to willowick oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-willowick to geneva-on-the- lake oh beyond 5nm off shoreline to us-canadian border-geneva-on- the-lake to conneaut oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- 333 am edt Mon jun 17 2024

Today - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms from late evening on. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tuesday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Waves 1 foot or less.

Wednesday - South winds 10 knots or less. Waves 1 foot or less.

Thursday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Waves 1 foot or less.

Friday - Southwest winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ100
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH
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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 171024 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 624 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
An upper ridge will remain in place over the region through this week, resulting in near-record temperatures across the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
630 AM...A diffuse outflow boundary from the remnant MCV in MI will likely stall somewhere across northern OH this morning, which could be the basis for convective initiation later this afternoon. High temperature forecast (mid to upper 90s) looks to remain on track with just some high cirrus overhead.

Previous Discussion...
A prolonged heat wave will begin across the region today and persist through at least Friday. Daily maximum heat indices near or above 100 degrees are likely with low temperatures not expected to dip below 70 degrees. Have upgraded the entirety of the Excessive Heat Watch to a Heat Advisory in this update.
Further targeted, localized upgrades to Excessive Heat Warnings remain possible, especially in urban centers where heat stress will be maximized.

For today, the upper-level ridge will continue to establish itself across the Eastern CONUS. Closer to the surface, a mesoscale convective complex continues to slowly pivot eastwards across southern MI, likely aided by a modest 700 mb jet. Recent satellite imagery continues to indicate healthy cloud-top cooling with mesoscale analysis suggesting continued convective development along an approaching warm front/instability gradient. Will need to continue to monitor this feature as it will likely become the main forcing mechanism for any thunderstorms in our area this afternoon, particularly across NE OH and NW PA. An approaching weak surface trough, evident on vapor water imagery in the western KY vicinity, could kick off some isolated thunderstorms elsewhere, though confidence is lower on coverage. Any thunderstorms that do develop today will have a strong downburst potential given steep low-level lapse rates > 8 C/km, strong surface instability > 3000 J/kg, and large theta-e differences.

A similar scenario will unfold on Tuesday with isolated to scattered thunderstorms as deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture attempts to round the ridge axis. Another weak surface trough is expected to arrive from the south, in addition to the better possibility of a lake breeze, particularly from Cleveland eastward. Once again, any thunderstorms that do develop will have a strong downburst potential given a similar environment to Monday.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
One of the consistent difficulties in the forecast for this stretch of weather dominated by a strong dome of upper level high pressure to the east/northeast of the CWA is trying to determine if there is enough layer moisture for convection to develop, and if so, to what extent. The operational models continue to try to push out QPF associated with weak waves in the south to north flow, but looking at forecast soundings shows it remains pretty dry above the boundary layer. Will opt to keep some low POPs in across the area just because there is not enough confidence to completely remove them given the setup and feel isolated convection is a reasonable forecast. Thursday is a day for stronger ridging aloft, getting away from the south to north flow with a westward expansion of the ridge axis into the southern Great Lakes. This keeps the baroclinic zone well to the north of the CWA and likely cuts off the tropical flow of moisture as well. Some trickiness to the temperatures Wednesday as there will not be any real change to the airmass in place but there could be an increase in high level/cirrus cloud cover. This could keep the temperatures down a degree or two from previous forecasts where every degree helps in this hotter pattern. Dewpoints have come up slightly however, and the the apparent temperature values likely are not going to change much if the slightly cooler forecast materializes. Expecting Thursday to be a little hotter once again with slight 500mb height increases from the aforementioned expanding ridge axis influence over the CWA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Expecting gradual degradation of the dominant upper level ridge pattern along with a southward migration for the end of the week and into the weekend. At this point, trying to pin down the next significant chances for rain which appear to be Sunday. Flow aloft will become a bit more zonal allowing for more organized systems to work into the area. Still on the hot side for Thursday and Friday, but gradual cooling through the long term and should be in in the 80s by Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
VFR across the TAF sites this morning with primarily VFR to persist through the TAF period. Have kept vcts mention in most TAF sites (minus ERI) as an outflow boundary from the convective complex in MI could be the basis for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Confidence remains low on thunderstorm placement and coverage. Any thunderstorm that does impact a TAF site this afternoon will bring a strong downburst and heavy rain threat.

Winds are generally out of the south this morning, 5 to 8 knots. Winds will favor a southwest direction later this morning and afternoon, around 10 knots, before shifting back towards the south, 5 to 8 knots, by late this evening.

Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Friday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon, but confidence is low.

MARINE
Offshore winds generally less than 10kts through Wednesday become light and variable for the end of the week. Wave heights through the entire forecast period less than a foot through Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms possible today and Tuesday.

CLIMATE
A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected this week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach or exceed record highs on several days. The records for Monday, June 17 to Friday, June 21 are listed below for our official climate sites.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-17 97(1994) 94(1936) 94(2018) 94(2018) 95(1994) 90(2018)
06-18 98(1994) 93(1994) 96(1944) 96(1944) 95(1994) 92(2018)
06-19 98(1995) 94(1994) 92(1995) 94(1994) 94(1994) 92(1931)
06-20 98(1953) 94(1988) 96(1988) 95(1933) 95(1933) 92(2016)
06-21 100(2022) 96(1988) 95(2022) 97(1933) 98(1933) 95(1933)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
45132 - Port Stanley 13 mi73 minSSW 5.8G7.8 67°F 65°F1 ft30.03


Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KHZY
   
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Wind History graph: HZY
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Tide / Current for
   
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Cleveland, OH,




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