Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 8:46 PM Moonrise 4:02 PM   Moonset 3:00 AM

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LEZ168 Expires:202405190815;;455553 Fzus61 Kcle 190207 Glfle
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 1007 pm edt Sat may 18 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis - High pressure of 30.00 inches will persist across the region through Sunday before a warm front lifts north across the lake by Monday. Deepening low pressure of 29.30 inches enters the northern great lakes Tuesday night and will drag a cold front east across lake erie on Wednesday.
lez061-168-169-190815- ripley to buffalo ny extending from 5nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- conneaut oh to ripley ny beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- 1007 pm edt Sat may 18 2024
Rest of tonight - Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Patchy fog late this evening, then areas of dense fog after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - East winds less than 10 knots. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - Southeast winds less than 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Southeast winds less than 10 knots. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KCLE 190617 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 217 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure slides across the region tonight and Sunday. A weak cold front approaches from the northwest Sunday night before lifting well to our north as a warm front on Monday. A cold front is expected to push through on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
9:30 PM Update...

Convection has completely dissipated, and that will allow for a dry night as high pressure builds overhead. We just await the development of radiation fog. Temp/dew point spreads are larger than last night, and we mixed well this afternoon, so that will make the fog less dense and less widespread than last night.
However, the latest RAP forecast soundings still show a low- level inversion late tonight, especially in NE Ohio and NW PA, and enough low-level moisture lingers to cause at least mist with pocket of dense fog in the sheltered valleys. For these reasons, kept patchy fog in most of the area overnight, with areas of fog in NE Ohio and NW PA, but not enough confidence on coverage and duration for any special weather statements at this point. Lakeshore areas near the Islands have the best potential for locally dense fog outside of NE Ohio and NW PA where light NE flow will advect some lake moisture below the inversion, so a fog bank could redevelop on the lake and affect communities near the western and central basins. Many HRRR members show high probabilities of this, but confidence is still somewhat low due to the overall environment being a little drier than 24 hours ago.

6:30 PM Update...

Increased PoPs over an axis from Morrow and Knox Counties through southern Richland, Ashland, Wayne, and Stark Counties over the next 1-2 hours. A weak boundary associated with a lingering mid-level vort max over eastern Ohio is generating persistent convection along its low-level convergence where MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/Kg is present. PWATs are only around 1 inch in that area, but these cells have produced efficient rainfall rates of 2 inches in 30 to 45 minutes! This is due to training and very slow movement of around 5 kts or so. Expect this pulse convection to finally wane after 23Z as the sun angle decreases.
The rest of the forecast remains on track.

Original Discussion...

Relatively benign weather is expected for the remainder of the weekend. The combination of heating of a somewhat moist low- level airmass, a subtle vort max overhead, and some low-level convergence over the Mid Ohio region has allowed isolated showers and thunder to develop. Expect this activity to dissipate by around sunset. Weak high pressure then slides through tonight and Sunday leading to partly to mostly clear skies and dry conditions for most of the forecast area through the rest of the near term. A weak cold front will try to approach Northwest Ohio late Sunday afternoon / evening before lifting north to start the week. Strong upper ridging will be in place, though forecast soundings depict modest to moderate and uncapped instability near Toledo late Sunday afternoon / evening. Enough hi-res models have isolated to scattered convection nearing Northwest Ohio late Sunday to maintain some 20-30% POPs to cover the potential. Weak shear and forcing suggest any storms will be of the single cell or "pulse" variety. Thermodynamics may be sufficient for a couple of cells to produce locally gusty winds or small hail in Northwest Ohio late Sunday, though overall am not too concerned about any kind of organized strong to severe storm threat. Any storms that make it into Northwest Ohio should rain themselves out by late Sunday evening with dry weather for the rest of Sunday night.

Lows tonight will generally settle into the 50s. It will be quite warm on Sunday, with highs in the low to mid 80s with the exception of the eastern lakeshore where onshore flow will keep conditions cooler. Lows Sunday night will be quite mild, ranging from the mid to upper 50s from far eastern OH into PA to the mid 60s along and west of I-71. Some radiation fog is likely again late tonight and very early Sunday though coverage should not be as widespread as Friday night into early this morning. The most widespread fog with pockets of dense fog will be from interior eastern OH into western PA, with fog more patchy and generally not quite as dense farther west.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Mid to upper level ridging will gradually build east during the day Monday before an upper trough and embedded shortwave clips Northwest Ohio on Tuesday. For now, have low end PoPs confined to Northwest Ohio for Monday afternoon and along and west of I-71 Tuesday afternoon. The upper trough becomes more pronounced Tuesday night as the surface low moves northeastward while deepening. This low will swing a cold front toward the Ohio Valley region to end the short term and begin the long term period.

Temperatures will rise nearly 10-15 degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Warm overnight lows Monday and Tuesday night in the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The aforementioned deepening low pressure will drag a cold front east across the local area on Wednesday and bring increased shower and thunderstorm chances to the region. The environment continues to look favorable for strong to severe storms develop as we'll remain in the warm sector with dew points in the low 60s with current guidance suggesting roughly 1000-1500+ J/kg of MLCAPE to work with.
We will continue to monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday as we get more model guidance. Trended drier toward the end of the week behind the cold front as a brief ridge of high pressure builds northward for Friday.

Highs top out in the lower 80s ahead of the cold front on Wednesday before returning to near normal values in the mid 70s Thursday through Saturday. Overnight lows through the long term settle in the mid 50s each night.

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/
Patchy fog and lower stratus are beginning to develop. This should expand throughout the overnight hours, but it will likely be more patchy and less dense than Friday night. Most locations should see at least a brief period of MVFR conditions, but IFR and LIFR conditions will be a bit trickier to predict and could be very brief. Opted for widespread MVFR with IFR and TEMPO groups for LIFR at terminals where confidence is highest.
Amendments will likely be needed as fog continues to develop overnight. Mixing should kick in pretty quickly (around 12Z)
this morning and VFR is expected for the remainder of the TAF period. There may be a few showers and possibly thunderstorms in the vicinity of KTOL/KFDY late this afternoon into this evening and can't rule out a brief period of non-VFR visibility, but confidence in the placement/timing of precip is too low to add into the TAF at this time.

Light and variable winds 5 knots or less are expected through the period.

Outlook...Low risk for isolated thunderstorms and non-VFR in Northwest OH Monday night. Somewhat greater potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms and non-VFR Tuesday afternoon and evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are likely Wednesday afternoon. Mainly VFR is expected outside of thunderstorms.

MARINE
Satellite imagery and local area webcams of Lake Erie indicate vast improvement of visibilities and thus the Dense Fog Advisory was cancelled. Moist low levels under a steep inversion overnight tonight will likely prompt the issuance of another fog headline over the lake. Low confidence in exact timing and placement of overnight fog so opted to hold off on issuing a new Dense Fog Advisory for overnight tonight with this forecast update.

High pressure persists through the weekend keeping winds light and variable on the lake through Monday afternoon. Flow turns southerly over Lake Erie by Monday night generally remaining between 5 and 10 knots. Deepening low pressure centered over the Great Plains will enter the Great Lakes region by mid week and will allow for southerly flow to increase to 15-20 knots during the day Wednesday before a cold front crosses eastward on Wednesday evening. Southwest flow of 10-15 knots behind the cold front continues into the end of the week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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