Milford, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Milford, MI

June 20, 2024 8:20 AM EDT (12:20 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 9:16 PM
Moonrise 7:34 PM   Moonset 3:16 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0021.000000t0000z-240618t0145z/ 948 Pm Edt Mon Jun 17 2024

.the special marine warning expired at 945 pm edt - .
the affected areas were - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
the Thunderstorms over eastern Monroe county have weakened and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. Wind gusts near 30 knots remain possible while the remaining activity moves through the region.
&&
lat - .lon 4195 8337 4196 8328 4226 8317 4234 8307 4239 8295 4244 8291 4248 8291 4258 8280 4250 8288 4246 8287 4239 8289 4235 8293 4230 8309 4224 8313 4220 8313 4203 8315 4196 8312 4180 8349 time - .mot - .loc 0147z 217deg 19kt 4208 8332

LCZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milford, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 201040 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 640 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions will exist again Thursday, particularly across areas along and south of the M-59 corridor where a Heat Advisory remains in effect. To the north, a weak cold frontal boundary will briefly bring slightly cooler and less humid conditions.

- The heat and humidity builds back into the entire region Friday and Saturday.

- Chances of thunderstorms continue each day of the week, some of which may be strong to severe with locally heavy downpours and isolated damaging wind gusts.

AVIATION

A subtle mid level short wave feature and enhanced convergence along a stationary front combined with weak elevated instability has supported some pre dawn convection from FNT to mbS. The passage of this feature will lead to a period of subsidence through at least mid day. A frontal boundary, enhanced by convective outflow, is forecast to become stationary across the metro Detroit area this afternoon. This will provide a focus for afternoono/evening convection as instability builds through diurnal heating. Timing and coverage of convection within pattern of moderate instability yet weakly forced atmosphere again carries a good deal of uncertainty.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Scattered thunderstorms are again forecast to develop with the increase in instability through daytime heating.
While coverage may initially be scattered, there again is a chance for thunderstorms to organize into clusters and thus lead to an increase in coverage across the airspace. Available guidance suggest a possible earlier timing of convective initiation compared to yesterday, possilby as early as 17 or 18Z.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate in thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 410 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

DISCUSSION...

As expected, the anomalous ridge parked over the Mid-Atlantic and occupying most of eastern CONUS has broadened longitudinally over the past 24 hours. This is evidenced by 20.00Z RAOB H5 geopotential heights of 599 dam at KPIT (WFO Pittsburgh), KOKX (WFO Upton/NYC), and KLWX (WFO Sterling). Although none of the coarser 00Z models resolved a 600 dam center, it's certainly possible that such magnitude existed between the three observation sites prior to the westward migration of the ridge centroid into Appalachia.

Initial GOES and ceilometer data affirm healthy coverage of nocturnal cloud cover which should, once again, hamper nighttime cooling rates. Made very minor upward revisions to MinTs this morning, outside the lakeshores. As discussed throughout the past several days, a low-level anticyclonic gyre builds over western Lake Huron this morning. This eventually leads to the development of a 1030 mb surface high which then drives a backdoor cold front into The Thumb area and points further southwest. The northeast flow draws down slightly cooler Canadian air and will be partially augmented by sub-60F water temperatures over much of Lake Huron.
Main question with this boundary remains the extent of inland penetration and the resultant cooling effect for post-frontal locations. Opted to go slightly more bullish with the frontal progression in the outgoing forecast by bringing the thermal gradient closer to the M-59 corridor. Prior evening update to the Heat Advisory will stand with the more marginal counties being Livingston, Oakland, and Macomb. Best opportunity to approach 100F heat indices for those northern three counties should be along the extreme southern extent of the boundaries where the advection of cooler air comes up short (or is more muted). Today will be the fourth consecutive day of heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100F for the remaining locations within the Heat Advisory as dewpoints linger in the lower 70s.

PoP forecast continues to be a major challenge with numerous periods of convection potential. Made first-period changes to account for ongoing line of sub-severe storms between I-94 and I-96 while another cluster tracks toward/into the Tri-Cities. Outside of the FGEN forcing along the inbound frontal slope, additional surrounding convection will be tied to what has become a rather familiar high- CAPE/low-shear quasi-uncapped environment. Further contributions to ascent offered by the reconfiguration of the ridge and a southward push of height falls across the UP and northern Lower MI creates a more favorable corridor for CVA during the afternoon hours with passing shortwave perturbations aloft. Conditions and coverage are less certain with any outflow boundary interactions and differential heating boundaries. Main threat with any strong to severe storms will be short-lived damaging gusts, especially with well-loaded core releases in the form of wet microbursts.

The system drifts into The Southeast by Saturday and could interact with another ridge over The Southwest. The deterministic NAM, GFS, and ECMWF remain in decent agreement with a zonal upper level pattern which moderates height changes. Meanwhile, another warm advection/frontal surge lifts back into Lower Michigan marked by H9 temps in the mid 20C range (potentially higher). Expect further refinements to highs Saturday, dependent on the northern edge of the realized thermal gradient. Regardless, most areas should see highs back into the lower 90s with increasing humidity. A cold front driven by a progressive shortwave swinging through the Upper Midwest provides some relief Sunday with showers and storms. This precedes somewhat more seasonable conditions and dry weather Monday before the heat (sans humidity) returns Tuesday.

MARINE...

Some breakup in the weather pattern occurs today as high pressure builds across Ontario which forces a cold front south through Lake Huron. This will cause winds to turn northerly but gusts remain largely below 20 knots. Warm temperatures remain across region which adds stability over the waters helping keep wave heights minimized as well. A stronger cold front looks to be on track for the second half of the weekend however, and wind speeds then could reach or exceed 25 knots with waves building to around 4 feet. Small craft advisories may be needed.

HYDROLOGY...

A moist and unstable airmass will remain in place through the end of the week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected across portions of SE MI today. The most intense thunderstorms will have the potential to produce highly localized rainfall amounts of 1- 2 inches in a 30-60 min period. Thunderstorm training (repeated thunderstorms) can also provide the chance see highly localized totals of 1-2+ inches. Uncertainty in specifics of location and exact timing for any flooding precludes the issuance of an flood watches. Additional storms with highly localized flooding potential will again be possible on Thursday during the afternoon and evening.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ068>070-075-076- 082-083.

Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi81 min0G2.9 74°F 30.29
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 68 mi63 minWSW 1.9G5.1 78°F 30.2371°F


Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KOZW LIVINGSTON COUNTY SPENCER J HARDY,MI 13 sm25 mincalm10 smPartly Cloudy75°F70°F83%30.30
KPTK OAKLAND COUNTY INTL,MI 17 sm27 minvar 039 smPartly Cloudy75°F68°F78%30.30
KFNT BISHOP INTL,MI 22 sm27 minENE 0510 smPartly Cloudy73°F70°F89%30.30
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Wind History graph: OZW
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Detroit, MI,




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