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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 1058 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. A chance of drizzle and snow through about 2 am, then a slight chance of drizzle, snow and light freezing drizzle overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots backing southwest 15 to 20 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of drizzle, light freezing drizzle and snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet toward daybreak.
Tuesday..West winds to 30 knots. Sunny. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 110603 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 103 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

UPDATE
Issued at 1010 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Ongoing light lake effect precipitation may transition to predominately drizzle/freezing drizzle/snow grains overnight into Monday morning. The DGZ has been only marginally saturated today and the latest HRRR soundings at BIV show further drying (almost completely) of the DGZ overnight as the inversion height lowers a tad more. Also decent omega is shown to linger in the cloud layer through mid morning Monday.

Road temps are still in the mid 30s so there probably won't be too much impact over the next several hours should the precip become predominately freezing drizzle, but it is certainly something to watch for the Monday morning commute since sfc temps are expected drop off a few degrees by that time. Will update the Hazardous Weather Outlook to include a FZDZ possibility near and west of Hwy 131.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

- Showers continue through tonight

Rain and snow showers continue with the positive vorticity advection moving through paired with the northwest flow over Lake Michigan. Colder air will continue to advect over the area with temperatures dropping overnight into the mid 20s to low 30s. Any rain is expected to transition to snow this evening with showers focusing more along the lakeshore overnight with amounts under an inch. There is also a chance (20 to 30 percent) for a lake effect snow band to reach Clare County and bring some light accumulations under an inch this evening.

Drier air moves in for Monday and continues into Monday night with a brief shortwave ridge setting up. Lake effect clouds linger within the northwest to west flow, but the saturation doesn't look deep enough for any precipitation. This will keep high temperatures in the 30s for another gloomy day.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Very little in the way of active weather is expected through the long term period of Tuesday through Sunday. Upper troughing will be in place to start the forecast period on Tuesday, replaced by zonal flow and much higher heights for the remainder of the period.
Temperatures through the long term will be above normal warming from the 30s on Tuesday to the 40s and near 50 by the end of the week and into next weekend.

As for any sensible weather there is a cold front that the models show passing through the area on Tuesday. Limited moisture means the front will pass through dry. This will be a time of windy conditions with southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph becoming northwest. Potential for some gusts to around 30 mph.

The only other time where there may be some precipitation will be out in the Friday time frame with another cold front. There is differences however in the operational models with the GFS pushing a cold front through while the ECWMF has ridging transitioning into a southwest flow. Bottom line, low confidence in this precipitation and left the small pops (20 pct) in our model blends in the forecast. So, we have a 20 pct chance of rain showers Friday into Friday night. Overall a very quiet forecast given the this time of year where we can be quite active.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 103 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Our main concern with aviation forecasts this morning is the small possibility of some light freezing drizzle. The latest radar loop shows some light returns floating by from NW to SE. All of the observations under these light returns remain at 10sm, with the heavier returns a little earlier showing some -sn or even some unknown precip type (UP) with some restriction to visibility.
Outside the office here near GRR, there have been some small snowflakes, snow grains, and some very light mist, all with no restriction to visibility. We have used VCSH to cover all of these possibilities and with it being so light. If it were to become heavier (which we do not expect to happen), we would insert some fzdzsn. Can not rule out some very light and spotty icing. The other factor is that the cloud heights around 2500 ft are not conducive for it to accumulate as that is indicative of some drier air, so it is more difficult for it to reach the ground sfc.

We expect that as winds shift more to become from the west and southwest, some light flurries from the lake will move inland and over all of the sites by early afternoon. These snow flurries should have little to no restriction to visibility. Plus, conditions will be MVFR already with the low clouds hanging on. We will likely see clearing move in from the SW late this afternoon and this evening. This should allow all sites to go VFR. There are indications that the low clouds will redevelop later Monday night, but this will be after 06z Tue.

GRR OPS: As mentioned above, there is a small possibility of enough very light freezing drizzle that would affect the runway and taxiway sfcs tonight. It has been very patchy so far, and has not affected any ground sfcs. We do not expect conditions to get any worse with regard to intensity. This very small chance will be through about 10-11 am this morning. Then, it should be in the form of light flurries. Pavement temps will warm after that due to the slow warming of the day with daylight/solar radiation.



MARINE
Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Winds and waves gradually subside this evening with a lull in Small Craft conditions expected until Monday night when southwest winds and waves build again. Winds turn back to the northwest Tuesday with the front with Small Craft conditions lingering into Wednesday.



GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...None.

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