Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fennville, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 338 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024

- Chances for showers later today and later Saturday

We will start the day out with more mostly clear skies with just some thin cirrus floating by this morning. Clouds will thicken up later today as a short wave aloft and sfc front starts to knock on our doorstep. Rain chances for late this afternoon and this evening are not very good looking at moisture profile. Also, the main energy with the upper wave will remain north of the area. We will continue to carry chc pops for this front, along with an isolated lightning strike possible with a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE available aloft.

The cold front will eventually stall out just south of the MI/IN/OH border by Saturday morning at sunrise. We will then see another short wave aloft and area of upper jet forcing translate across the area. This forcing combining with the front will help to induce additional shower activity later in the day and beyond. The better chances of rain showers later Saturday will be found across the south, closer to the stalled out frontal system.

We will see a break then from later tonight

- Increasing Potential for Rain Saturday night

A surface wave will be lifting up the OH Valley Saturday night. A tight baroclinic zone will be over the CWA during the time. The DGZ moistens up and decent FGEN is noted over southern parts of the CWA
Stronger 250 mb divergence is noted as well. Thus rain is looking likely for this region and it could persist into the early morning hours on Sunday. Ensemble 24 hr qpf values from the various models are also trending up for Kalamazoo, so we will increase the POPs for this window.

- Occasional Showers Sunday into Sunday night

A potent mid to upper level wave digs into the Great Lakes Region Sunday. Strong H5 height falls occur here in MI as a result. As the column cools and the Great Lakes add moisture to this cold system, deep moisture results. The moisture is shown to extend up through the DGZ and stronger lift is seen in the models, especially over the northern zones Sunday afternoon. On the backside of this departing system, the north to northwest flow will favor lakeshore regions for abundant showers Sunday night. Forecast sounding up around Ludington at 00z Mon are showing inversion heights up around 20k ft.
We will feature high POPs for this period, especially to the north and west of Grand Rapids.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024

A cold front will approach the TAF sites from the northwest today.
This will increase the pressure gradient, resulting in gusty winds today. Southwesterly gusts over 20 knots are looking likely at some of the sites. The front will be tracking through the sites this evening and a wind shift to the north northwest will occur behind the front. This front will be lacking moisture so for now, no precipitation or sub VFR conditions will be forecast.

MARINE
Issued at 338 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024

We have expanded the Small Craft Advisory to now include our whole nearshore area. This expansion is focused mainly on the Friday night time frame.

Winds will be ramping up today from the SW ahead of the incoming front. These winds will affect most of the nearshore with winds of 20+ knots and waves 4+ feet. It is likely to not include the far southern zone today ahead of the front.

Once the front moves by, winds will switch to become from the NNW and will become gusty with the cooler air coming in over the warmer water. This will kick the waves up efficiently for a few hours, before the flow goes offshore and starts to diminish by Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 338 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024

We will be holding on to the Fire Weather Watch through sunrise, before making final decisions after coordinating with the land management agencies one last time before a possible upgrade.

The change today compared to the past few days is the increase in wind similar to last Sunday. RHs will be down well into the 30s with wind gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. Areas near the lake will see a little higher RHs. Also, there is more of a concern in the Jack Pine forests across Central Lower with the significant lack of recent rainfall.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Fire Weather Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ844.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ845>849.